Rating the 2026 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Prospects: The Rookie Super Model
Fantasy

Rating the 2026 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Prospects: The Rookie Super Model

Dwain McFarland unveils the 2026 Wide Receiver Rookie Super Model, going prospect by prospect to break down how they grade in the model and how they profile as fantasy football prospects.

Have you ever wondered how NFL Draft prospects stack up across multiple factors—draft pick, collegiate production and film? Yeah, me too.

That's why I built the Rookie Super Model. And it has a strong track record compared to NFL Draft pick alone. Using well-researched inputs that matter for WR prospects, we rate and tier the top 2026 WRs, with player comps and historical fantasy hit rates included.

Analysis here focuses on the bottom line, but full write-ups are linked throughout and accessible via the Fantasy Life NFL Draft Guide under the Analysis tab. As we get updated mock draft and actual draft pick data, we will update the Rookie Super Model.

WHAT IS THE WR ROOKIE SUPER MODEL?

New to the Rookie Super Model? The introductory guide covers all the inputs by position and includes a glossary for any unfamiliar terms. One of the key data points we use to normalize collegiate production is Career Adjusted Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RYPTPA). While that sounds like a mouthful, it is really important. See another term or acronym you aren't familiar with? Just scroll to the bottom to see our handy-dandy glossary!

Returning Super Model lovers, welcome to Year 4!

In short, the model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 based on what has historically mattered most for NFL production. It accounts for age, strength of schedule, program quality and teammates to normalize comparisons.

Don't fixate on exact grades—focus on tiers and range of outcomes. That's how you find over- and underpriced assets.

Below is a review of how WR prospects fared based on Rookie Super Model rating. For example, 75% of the WRs rated between 90 and 100 achieved a top-24 PPR finish by Year 3 versus 64% for WRs rated 80 to 89.

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Nerd-Note.webp Nerd Note: Prospecting for WRs is the hardest out of RBs, WRs and TEs. Our hit rates on top-12 and top-24 players are lower than at RB. Still, the model is more predictive than NFL draft pick alone, which also deals with lower high-end hit rates at WR.

This makes sense. If you are a great RB prospect (especially high picks), you are usually getting your touches eventually. That typically translates to fantasy points. But at WR, getting on the field is just the first step. You have other WRs to compete with for targets, and some teams are loaded. The play of your QB is also a significant factor.

HOW DO THE 2026 WR DRAFT PROSPECTS COMPARE TO PRIOR YEARS?

Before we dive into the prospects, let's zoom out and assess the overall strength of this class. To do this, I have broken the prospects into three buckets:

  • Super Model Rating: 90 to 100 (elite prospects)
  • Super Model Rating: 80 to 89 (great prospects)
  • Super Model Rating: 70 to 79 (good prospects)

The data below shows the number of elite, great and good prospects from each class since 2018:

  • 2018: 0, 2, 8 (10)
  • 2019: 0, 3, 8 (11)
  • 2020: 3, 4, 9 (16)
  • 2021: 3, 3, 8 (14)
  • 2022: 1, 5, 8 (14)
  • 2023: 0, 4, 8 (12)
  • 2024: 2, 4, 10 (16)
  • 2025: 2, 3, 6 (11)
  • 2026: 1, 3, 13 (17)

For 2026, we are using mock draft data, so things will change when we get actual draft picks. But as of now, this class has more WRs rated 70 or higher (17) than any class in the model's history. 

That makes this an attractive class, but it is worth noting that the majority fall in the 70-79 rating range, which offers lower hit rates. The 2026 class isn't as strong as 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 or 2025 in terms of top-end talent.

2026 WR ROOKIE SUPER MODEL RATINGS & TIERS

With the macro-level data out of the way, it's time to dive into the prospects, y'all! See below for how the Rookie Super Model rates each incoming rookie wideout and how they bucket into individual tiers.

Tier 1: WR2 Prospects With WR1 Upside

Carnell Tate | Ohio State

  • Super Model Rating: 92 (7th since 2018)
  • Draft Pick: 8 (based on mock draft data)
  • Rookie Age: 21.6 (age when the 2026 NFL season starts)
  • Height: 74 inches
  • Weight: 192 pounds
  • Complete Rookie Model Prospect Profile
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Fantasy Outlook

Eleven WRs have garnered a Super Model rating between 87 and 97 since 2018, with 82% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 18%
  • Top-12 finishes: 27%
  • Top-24 finishes: 82%
  • Top-36 finishes: 88%

Tate's closest Rookie Super Model prospect comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Tate as a mid-Round 1 NFL talent. He carved out a substantial role in a loaded Buckeyes offense as a contested-catch maestro who can attack all three levels of the field. NFL offenses can deploy that archetype in numerous ways, which unlocks a variety of paths to fantasy production. Tate isn't a high-end YAC player, so his chunk plays will likely need to come via downfield receptions, but the TD potential is strong. Tate profiles as a WR2 with WR1 upside in fantasy football.

Carnell Tate complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile. 

Makai Lemon | USC

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 19 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 82 and 92, with 68% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 16%
  • Top-12 finishes: 26%
  • Top-24 finishes: 68%
  • Top-36 finishes: 84%

Lemon's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lemon as a mid-first-round NFL Draft prospect. His role and production improved every season in a strong program that played against high-quality competition. His best fit early is likely from the slot, but he isn't a gimmick player—Lemon can stretch defenses and move the sticks in contested situations. Lemon profiles as a WR2 with WR1 upside.

Makai Lemon complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Jordyn Tyson | Arizona State

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 16 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 81 and 91, with 62% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 14%
  • Top-12 finishes: 24%
  • Top-24 finishes: 62%
  • Top-36 finishes: 76%

Tyson's closest Super Model comps:

  • Tetairoa McMillan
  • Rashod Bateman

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Tyson as a mid-Round 1 NFL Draft pick. He immediately produced as an 18-year-old and backed that up by dominating against stronger competition over his final two seasons. He doesn't offer high-end YAC ability, but has the highest demonstrated ceiling as a target earner. If we had to place bets on which WR will become an NFL target hog today, Tyson would be the leader in the clubhouse. He is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside in fantasy football.

Jordyn Tyson complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile. 

Tier 2: WR3 Prospects With WR2 Upside

KC Concepcion | Texas A&M

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 41 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 76 and 86, with 41% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 10%
  • Top-12 finishes: 17%
  • Top-24 finishes: 41%
  • Top-36 finishes: 54%

Concepcion's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Concepcion as a late Day 1 or early Day 2 prospect. From a fantasy perspective, the landing spot could be critical if teams don't view him as a boundary player who can challenge multiple levels of the field. However, if his team views his final season at TAMU as the role, he could blossom into a very good fantasy asset. He profiles as a borderline WR3 who offers WR2 upside. In an offense like the 49ers or Chiefs, WR1 upside is on the table.

KC Concepcion complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Omar Cooper Jr. | Indiana

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 54 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 74 and 84, with 44% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 13%
  • Top-24 finishes: 33%
  • Top-36 finishes: 44%

Cooper's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model rates Cooper as an early Day 2 NFL Draft pick, but would consider him a reach much earlier than that. He profiles as a borderline WR3. Similar to Concepcion, Cooper could be scheme-dependent early in his career. His best fit would be on a team that plays him as the Z and kicks him inside in three-WR sets, where his YAC ability can shine, as it did in his final season at Indiana.

Omar Cooper Jr. complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Denzel Boston | Washington

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 54 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 73 and 83, with 43% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 2%
  • Top-12 finishes: 9%
  • Top-24 finishes: 33%
  • Top-36 finishes: 43%

Boston's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super model views Boston as overrated for a Round 1 NFL Draft pick. But the Washington product faced extreme playing-time limitations over his first two seasons in a loaded offense. While the model accounts for teammates, it is an edge-case situation, where we must give Boston some leeway. He is a possession-style prospect who profiles as a borderline WR3 with WR2 upside in fantasy football.

Denzel Boston complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Elijah Sarratt | Indiana

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 56 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 72 and 82, with 38% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 29%
  • Top-36 finishes: 38%

Sarratt's closest Super Model comps:

If you want a pure Production Rating (good) vs. Film Rating comps (average), disregarding size and other variables, it is Skyy Moore. Moore had a 91 Production Rating and a 78 Film Rating.

Bottom line: Sarratt was a highly productive collegiate WR, delivering strong numbers throughout his career. However, his skill set might not translate as well at the NFL level due to separation concerns that lead to contested targets. Will an NFL QB with other talented options force-feed him? Fernando Mendoza did despite having Omar Cooper Jr., so it is a possibility, but those concerns are hurting Sarratt's Film Rating. Still, the Rookie Super Model sees Sarratt as a Round 2 NFL Draft pick. He is a boom-bust WR4 option in fantasy football.

Elijah Sarratt complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Chris Brazzell II | Tennessee

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 58 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 71 and 81, with 36% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 12%
  • Top-24 finishes: 28%
  • Top-36 finishes: 36%

Brazzell's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Brazzell checks the size and speed boxes that NFL teams like and could pay immediate dividends as a boundary field stretcher. However, whether he can grow into a high-volume player is a question mark. The Super Model views Brazzell as a mid-to-late second-round NFL pick. He is a boom-bust WR4 profile in fantasy football.

Chris Brazzell complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 3: WR4 Prospects

Chris Bell | Louisville

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 62 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 69 and 79, with 31% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 8%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 31%

Bell's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Bell profiles as an underneath WR that can add value after the catch, but he might need a creative offense that uses motion and play action to get him into space. The Super Model views Bell as a Round 3 NFL Draft pick. He is a WR4 profile for fantasy purposes, but could improve with the right landing spot.

Chris Bell complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile. 

Germie Bernard | Alabama

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 62 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 69 and 79, with 31% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 8%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 31%

Bernard's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Bernard is a strong YAC player who can play inside or outside, but he has limitations to his game. That showed up with a lack of high-end production in college. The Rookie Super Model views Bernard as a Round 3 pick. For fantasy, he is a WR4 that could get a bump in a scheme that moves him around the formation and gets him involved in the rushing attack. 

Germie Bernard complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Zachariah Branch | Georgia

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 68 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 68 and 78, with 28% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 19%
  • Top-36 finishes: 28%

Branch's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Super Model views Branch as a Round 3 pick. He is a player who can add value around the line of scrimmage after the catch and provide punch on special teams. But he must prove he can be more than a gadget player. His snaps could be capped. Historically, his archetype has not lived up to fantasy expectations. He is a WR4 prospect in fantasy football.

Zachariah Branch complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 4: WR5 Prospects

Malachi Fields | Notre Dame

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 72 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 67 and 87, with 25% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 17%
  • Top-36 finishes: 25%

Fields' closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Fields grades out as a Day 3 prospect in the Rookie Super Model. His Production Rating is below average, but his Film Rating points toward a player who could become a starter for an NFL team. He is a big player who can win when the ball is in the air, but doesn't have top-end speed or make-you-miss ability after the grab. His best fit would be on a weak depth chart with a QB willing to throw into coverage. Fields is a WR5 prospect in fantasy football.

Malachi Fields complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Antonio Williams | Clemson

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 72 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 67 and 87, with 25% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 17%
  • Top-36 finishes: 25%

Williams' closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Williams as a Day 3 pick. He was a below-average producer in college, but battled injuries. Williams flashed when given opportunities and can add value as a rusher and in the return game. His best fit is in a creative scheme where he can play from the slot, but the data and film are at odds regarding his ability as a YAC player, creating question marks. Williams is a WR5 prospect in fantasy football.

Antonio Williams complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Ted Hurst | Georgia State

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 73 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, with 19% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 14%
  • Top-36 finishes: 19%

Hurst's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Hurst as a field-stretching Day 3 NFL Draft prospect. On the right team, that role could earn him immediate playing time if he performs well in training camp. He is a WR5 dart-throw as a prospect for fantasy football.

Ted Hurst complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Bryce Lance | North Dakota State

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 73 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, with 19% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 14%
  • Top-36 finishes: 19%

Lance's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lance as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. His extremely late breakout against low-level competition hurts his Production Rating. He has the raw athletic traits that could earn him a role as a field-stretcher. But he will need to broaden his skill set to become a primary option. The fun part about targeting Lance in fantasy football: at least he flashed dominant upside over his final two years and backed it up with a great NFL Scouting Combine. He is an upside WR5 dart throw in fantasy.

Bryce Lance complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Ja'kobi Lane | USC

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 73 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, with 19% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 14%
  • Top-36 finishes: 19%

Lane's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Super Model sees Lane as a Day 3 NFL Draft talent. He doesn't have a hang-your-hat trait outside of contested catch ability, which could be a negative if his inability to play through traffic is the driver of his high contested target rate and not QB trust. He could develop into a red zone threat, but must improve to be more. Lane is a WR5 dart-throw profile in fantasy land.

Ja'Kobi Lane complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Skyler Bell | UCONN

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Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 75 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 65 and 75, with 17% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 12%
  • Top-36 finishes: 17%

Bell's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Bell's late breakout dampens his production rating. But he could develop into a solid target earner in the NFL, and if he has untapped field-stretching upside, he could turn into a quality fantasy option. The Rookie Super Model views Bell as a Day 3 pick, and he is an interesting WR5 prospect for fantasy football. Bell is a sleeper. I like him more than the model.

Skyler Bell complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 5: WR6 Dart-Throw Prospects

Kevin Coleman Jr. | Missouri

Fantasy Outlook

Coleman's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Coleman didn't break out until his third season, impacting his Production Rating. He has solid ball skills for his size and could become a slot contributor at the next level. The Rookie Super Model sees him as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He is a WR6 profile for fantasy football.

Kevin Coleman complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Eric McAlister | TCU

Fantasy Outlook

McAlister's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: McAlister didn't break out until his third season, which affects his Production Rating in the model. However, he offers a rare blend of vertical prowess with YAC ability. If he can iron out his route and catching-technique issues, he could be a valuable asset. McAlister projects as a Day 3 pick in the Rookie Super Model and is a WR6 with upside in fantasy.

Eric McAlister complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Deion Burks | Oklahoma

Fantasy Outlook

Burks' closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model as a late Day 3 pick. He didn't get going until Year 3, and even then, his numbers were average. Burks has a lot to fix to become a good player at the next level, making him a low-end WR6 prospect in fantasy football. 

Deion Burks complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

De'Zhaun Stribling | Ole Miss

Fantasy Outlook

Stribling's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model sees Stribling as a Day 3 pick. He earned playing time early in his career, but was just never able to bend the curve from average to great. He has good size and YAC ability, but needs work to become a fantasy football staple. He is a low-end WR6.

De'Zhaun Stribling complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Reggie Virgil | Texas Tech

Fantasy Outlook

Virgil's closest Super Model comps:

  • Marquez Callaway

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Virgil as a late Day 3 pick. His production didn't pop until Year 3 and regressed in Year 4. He could latch on with a team as a field stretcher in a part-time role to begin his career. He is a low-end WR6 for fantasy football.

Reggie Virgil complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Brenen Thompson | Mississippi State

Fantasy Outlook

Thompson's closest Super Model comps:

  • Arian Smith

Bottom line: Thompson was a late bloomer in college, who is undersized by NFL standards. He offers pure, unadulterated speed, but struggles in contested situations, which could come more frequently in the NFL. The Rookie Super Model views Thompson as a late Day 3 pick. He is a WR6 for fantasy football.

Brenen Thompson complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

CJ Daniels | Miami

Fantasy Outlook

Daniels' closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Daniels didn't break out until Year 3 despite playing easier competition. His inability to replicate that over his final two years at bigger programs isn't ideal. He is a crafty contested-catch maven. Daniels could stick on the right roster, but he isn't a big-play threat. The Rookie Super Model views Daniels as a late Day 3 pick. He is a WR6 for fantasy prospecting purposes. 

CJ Daniels complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Josh Cameron | Baylor

  • Super Model Rating: 63
  • Draft Pick: 167
  • Rookie Age: 23.5
  • Height: 73.5 inches
  • Weight: 220 pounds
  • Production Rating: 66
  • Film Rating: 76
  • Program Quality Rating: 73
  • Complete Rookie Model Prospect Profile
Fantasy Outlook

Cameron's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Cameron was a late bloomer, and his production never reached the high-end ranges we want from a prospect like that. He is your classic strong-ball skills but separation-concerns prospect. He could add value in the red zone on the right team. The Rookie Super Model sees Cameron as a late Day 3 NFL Draft selection. He is a WR6 in fantasy

Josh Cameron complete Rookie Super Model prospect profile.

Tier 7: Long-Shot Prospects

Dillon Bell | Georgia

  • Super Model Rating: 63
  • Draft Pick: Late
  • Rookie Age: 22.8
  • Height: 73 inches
  • Weight: 209 pounds
  • Production Rating: 63
  • Film Rating: 71
  • Program Quality Rating: 93
Fantasy Outlook

Bell's closest Super Model comps:

  • Montrell Washington

Bottom line: Bell was a three-star 2022 recruiting prospect who ultimately never had a breakout season at Georgia. His career-high RYPTPA was 0.97 in his third season with 36 YPG. Bell is best known for adding value as a rusher. He compiled 373 yards and five TDs on the ground. His 7% career drop rate will be a red flag for some teams. The Rookie Super Model views Bell as a borderline late-Day 3 NFL Draft Pick. He is a WR7 in fantasy.

Caleb Douglas | Texas Tech

  • Super Model Rating: 63
  • Draft Pick: Late
  • Rookie Age: 23
  • Height: 75.5 inches
  • Weight: 206 pounds
  • Production Rating: 72
  • Film Rating: 70
  • Program Quality Rating: 78
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Douglas was a three-star recruit who never had a great season of production. His best years came in Years 3 and 4 at Texas Tech after transferring from Florida. He was primarily utilized 10-plus yards downfield with a 13.8 aDOT (64th percentile). The Rookie Super Model views him as a fringe Day 3 NFL Draft pick. He is a WR7 in fantasy land.  

Colbie Young | Georgia

  • Super Model Rating: 62
  • Draft Pick: Late
  • Rookie Age: 24.1
  • Height: 77 inches
  • Weight: 218 pounds
  • Production Rating: 72
  • Film Rating: 71
  • Program Quality Rating: 81
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Young was decent over his first two seasons at Miami with 1.11 and 1.42 RYPTPA marks, but ultimately never ascended to the next level in his final two seasons at Georgia. The Rookie Super Model views him as a fringe Round 7 NFL Draft pick. 

Jordan Hudson | SMU

  • Super Model Rating: 62
  • Draft Pick: Late or UDFA
  • Rookie Age: 22.8
  • Height: 73 inches
  • Weight: 191 pounds
  • Production Rating: 68
  • Film Rating: 72
  • Program Quality Rating: 81
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Hudson was a five-star prospect who didn't become a factor until his fourth season with a 1.94 RYPTPA. He profiles as a possession WR who was solid against man coverage (31% TPRR), but isn't a plus player after the catch. The Rookie Super Model views him as a fringe late-Day 3 pick who could become a WR4 for an NFL team. He is a WR7 in fantasy.

Barion Brown | LSU

  • Super Model Rating: 62
  • Draft Pick: Late or UDFA
  • Rookie Age: 22.7
  • Height: 71 inches
  • Weight: 177 pounds
  • Production Rating: 66
  • Film Rating: 69
  • Program Quality Rating: 75
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Brown was a four-star recruit in the 2022 class who flashed as a freshman at Kentucky with a 1.77 RYPTPA. It went downhill from there: 1.45 → 1.28 → 1.20. However, he battled rib, hamstring and leg injuries. His career TPRR of 27% was great, but was reliant on throws behind the line of scrimmage (28%). He still got deep shots (26%). Brown adds value as a rusher and returner. He scored two rushing TDs and returned six kicks for scores. The Rookie Super Model sees Brown as a late Day 3 player, but there is a story we can tell ourselves with Brown. Brown is a sleeper—I like him more than the model.

Malik Benson | Oregon

  • Super Model Rating: 62
  • Draft Pick: Late or UDFA
  • Rookie Age: 23.9
  • Height: 72 inches
  • Weight: 189 pounds
  • Production Rating: 65
  • Film Rating: 75
  • Program Quality Rating: 91
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Benson was a four- and five-star recruit as a JUCO transfer out of Hutchinson Community College. He played for Alabama, Florida State and Oregon, but never delivered noteworthy production until his final year, with 48 YPG and a 1.65 RYPTPA. He attacked all four field levels and was a good contested catch player (57%). He ran a 4.37-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, keeping him on the radar of NFL teams. The Rookie Super Model views Benson as a borderline late Day 3 NFL Draft Pick. He is a WR7 in fantasy.

Jeff Caldwell | Cincinnati

  • Super Model Rating: 62
  • Draft Pick: Late or UDFA
  • Rookie Age: 23.5
  • Height: 77 inches
  • Weight: 216 pounds
  • Production Rating: 68
  • Film Rating: 71
  • Program Quality Rating: 55
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Caldwell posted a dominant 3.29 RYPTPA in his fourth season at Lindenwood University (FCS). That transformed him from a zero-star recruit to a highly sought-after portal player. Ultimately, the production didn't translate at the next level (Cincinnati), where he posted a 1.31 RYPTPA with 37 yards per game. Caldwell is a size-speed freak the Rookie Super Model sees as a late Day 3 option. He is a WR7 with upside in fantasy.

J. Michael-Sturdivant | Florida

  • Super Model Rating: 61
  • Draft Pick: Late or UDFA
  • Rookie Age: 24
  • Height: 75 inches
  • Weight: 207 pounds
  • Production Rating: 66
  • Film Rating: 72
  • Program Quality Rating: 73
Fantasy Outlook

Bottom line: Sturdivant delivered respectable production in his second and third seasons with 1.61 and 1.45 RYPTPAs at Cal and UCLA. However, he regressed over his final two seasons. He is a size-speed combination that makes him a traits-based prospect who can push the vertical boundary. His drop rate of 7.6% was high. The Rookie Super Model views him as a low-end Day 3 option. Sturdivant is a WR7 in fantasy.

Data Glossary:

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
  • aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
  • Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
  • Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
  • Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
  • Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
  • FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
  • Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
  • Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
  • Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
  • RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
  • SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
  • Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
  • TPRR: Targets per route run.
  • YAC: Average yards after the catch.
  • YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
  • YPG: Yards per game.
  • YPRR: Yards per route run.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Michael Wilson
    MichaelWilson
    WRARIARI
    PPG
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