Bryce Lance Scouting Report And Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile
Fantasy

Bryce Lance Scouting Report And Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile

Dwain McFarland breaks down the Rookie Super Model's analysis of incoming WR Bryce Lan

Brother of NFL QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State WR Bryce Lance checks in as the WR15 in the release of the 2026 Rookie Super Model.

I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model. You can find my complete profiles of the 2026 NFL Draft wide receiver prospects here.

If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.

You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For Bryce Lance

  • Super Model Rating: 71 (110th since 2018)
  • Draft Pick (based on Mock Draft data): 117
  • Rookie Age: 25
  • Height: 75 inches
  • Weight: 204 pounds
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A three-star recruit out of Minnesota in 2021, Bryce Lance set high school records at Marshall Senior High School with 1,766 yards and 68 receptions.

Trey Lance's younger brother was at North Dakota State for five seasons. He redshirted his first year and didn't play a meaningful role on offense until his fourth and fifth seasons. Lance became the first WR in the history of the program to record back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and was a First-Team All-American in 2025.

He never entered the transfer portal, but reportedly was offered a seven-figure NIL deal from Power Four programs after his breakout year in 2024. He elected to stay with the Bison.

Despite his age, Lance is viewed as an ascending player based on his final two seasons and his crushing performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.

What the Production Says

Lance didn't get on the field until his fourth season, which hurts his adjusted career RYPTPA. He was electric when targeted against FCS competition.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 25th percentile
  • Targeted QB Passer Rating: 146.3, 95th percentile

Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.

While the model is docking Lance for a late breakout, low Program Quality Rating and easy Strength of Schedule Rating, his raw production was amazing:

  • 2024: 2.74 RYPTPA, 67 YPG, 17 TDs, 26% targets
  • 2025: 3.98 RYPTPA, 83 YPG, 8 TDs, 26% targets

His raw career RYPTPA of 2.08 (55th percentile) is similar to that of former Bison Christian Watson, who posted a 2.19 (58th percentile). Watson was 23 as an NFL rookie. 

Lance gained a first down on 13% of his routes (70th percentile) and notched a 72nd percentile 3.07 YPRR over his career.

Beyond the Production

Lance's target-depth profile paints the picture of a deep-ball virtuoso. He saw 62% of his targets come 10-plus yards downfield.

  • Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 10% (-4 vs. avg)
  • Short Targets (0-9 yards): 28% (-8 vs. avg)
  • Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 32% (+8 vs. avg)
  • Deep Targets (20+ yards): 30% (+8 vs. avg)

He aligned wide on 87% of snaps and notched a 14.1 aDOT (66th percentile). Lance secured 61% of his contested targets and rarely dropped the football (2.4%).

Lance didn't add much after the catch with a 5.1 YAC, which was -0.3 yards vs. expected after adjusting for aDOT.

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com gave Lance a 6.00 prospect grade (44th percentile), which equates to: traits or talent to be an above-average backup. Zierlein calls out limitations in quickness and short-area agility that limit Lance's route running. His route tree is limited, and he won't be able to rely on pure speed in the NFL. However, Zierlein calls out his speed and ball skills as positives.

All of those notes align with Lance's data profile as a downfield threat, and his short-area route-running limitations might have been a factor behind how long it took for him to make a dent in the North Dakota State offense.

In case you are wondering, Zierlein had a grade of 6.27 (58th percentile) on Watson.

Lance absolutely crushed at the NFL Scouting Combine, which will get teams dreaming about potential upside—especially as a boundary field stretcher.

  • 40-yard dash: 4.34 seconds (83rd percentile)
  • Vertical leap: 41.5 (81st percentile)

Fantasy Outlook For Bryce Lance

Since 2018, 73 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, with 19% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 14%
  • Top-36 finishes: 19%

Lance's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lance as a Day 3 NFL Draft pick. His extremely late breakout against low-level competition hurts his Production Rating. He has the raw athletic traits that could earn him a role as a field-stretcher. But he will need to broaden his skill set to become a primary option. The fun part about targeting Lance in fantasy football: at least he flashed dominant upside over his final two years and backed it up with a great NFL Scouting Combine. He is an upside WR5 dart throw in fantasy.

Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
  • aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
  • Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
  • Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
  • Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
  • Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
  • FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
  • Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
  • Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
  • Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
  • RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
  • SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
  • Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
  • TPRR: Targets per route run.
  • YAC: Average yards after the catch.
  • YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
  • YPG: Yards per game.
  • YPRR: Yards per route run.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Christian Watson
    ChristianWatson
    WRGBGB
    PPG
    11.27
  2. Adonai Mitchell
    AdonaiMitchell
    WRNYJNYJ
    PPG
    4.46