Chris Brazzell II Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For The 2026 NFL Draft
Fantasy

Chris Brazzell II Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For The 2026 NFL Draft

Dwain McFarland breaks down the biggest takeaways from the Rookie Super Model's analysis of Chris Brazzell II.

Tennessee's Chris Brazzell II checks in as the WR8 in the 2026 Rookie Super Model, where I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model. You can find my complete profiles of the 2026 NFL Draft wide receiver prospects here.

If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.

You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For Chris Brazzell II

  • Super Model Rating: 76 (68th since 2018)
  • Draft Pick: 46
  • Rookie Age: 23
  • Height: 76 inches
  • Weight: 198 pounds

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Brazzell was a three-star recruit out of Midland, Texas, in the 2022 recruiting class. He signed with Tulane, where he redshirted due to injury.

After a strong second season at Tulane, Brazzell entered the transfer portal as a four-star recruit. He transferred to Tennessee for his final two seasons.

His first season in Knoxville was lackluster, battling for playing time (59% route participation) and targets (16%) with Dont'e Thornton Jr. and Bru McCoy. Thornton was a Round 4 pick by the Raiders in the 2025 NFL Draft. McCoy, a former five-star recruit, was signed by the Saints as an undrafted free agent. 

Brazzell earned more playing time in his final season and led the team with 84 receiving yards per game and 9 TDs.

What the Production Says

Brazzell's production was up and down over his three healthy seasons, resulting in below-average marks in adjusted career RYPTPA. But he was a plus player when targeted. He finished his career with a 76 Production Rating in the model.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 43rd percentile
  • Targeted QB Passer Rating: 115.3, 62nd percentile

Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.

In his final season at Tulane in 2023, Brazzell posted a RYPTPA of 2.05 with a 21% target share after redshirting the season before due to a shoulder injury. He averaged 55 YPG and scored 5 TDs. 

In his third season, his production dipped as he transitioned into the Volunteers' offense. His RYPTPA fell to 0.89 with only 26 YPG. Brazzell's final season (Year 4 of eligibility) was by far his best with 84 YPG and 9 receiving TDs. His RYPTPA reached 2.39, and he notched a 21% target share.

Josh Heupel's exotic scheme adds another layer of complexity for evaluating WRs at Tennessee. We have seen multiple WRs post significant RYPTPAs since Heupel took over in 2021:

  • Cedric Tillman in 2021: 2.88
  • Velus Jones Jr. in 2021: 2.15
  • Jalin Hyatt in 2022: 3.22

Ultimately, Brazzell's production was average for an NFL Draft prospect. While the data points below aren't inputs to the model, they provide additional context on his production. They align with the overall sentiment of the Rookie Super Model:

  • Career YPRR: 2.09 (42nd percentile)
  • Career FDPRR: 10% (50th percentile)
  • Career Target Share: 19% (48th percentile)
  • Best Target Share: 21% (42nd percentile)
  • Career TPRR: 22%

Beyond the Production

Brazzell made his hay as a medium-to-deep target over his collegiate career.

  • Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 7% (-7 vs. avg)
  • Short Targets (0-9 yards): 35% (-1 vs. avg)
  • Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 33% (+9 vs. avg)
  • Deep Targets (20+ yards): 26% (+4 vs. avg)

He primarily aligned on the boundary, with 93% of his snaps coming out wide, and his career aDOT of 15.4 falls in the 73rd percentile. Typically, deep threats have lower YAC averages. That was the case for Brazzell (3.4), but he was below average after adjusting for aDOT with a -1.7 YAC over expected.

His career drop rate of 6% is slightly above average, but he improved in his final season with a rate of 2.3%. He was a below-average player in the contested-catch department at 41%.

Brazzell's Film Rating of 81 helps his model score. But the underlying currents within Lance Zierlein's prospect write-up mostly align with the data. Zierlein sees Brazzell as a field stretcher who can struggle as a pass catcher over the first two levels. Brazzell received a prospect grade of 6.36 (62nd percentile) from Zierlein.

Brazzell checks the size and speed boxes that NFL teams covet at 6-foot-4 (82nd percentile) with a 4.37-second 40-yard dash (79th percentile). He could immediately unlock playing time as a field stretcher, opening up space for the rest of the offense. The question is whether he can grow into a primary passing-game option.

Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 58 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 71 and 81, with 36% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 5%
  • Top-12 finishes: 12%
  • Top-24 finishes: 28%
  • Top-36 finishes: 36%

Brazzell's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Brazzell checks the size and speed boxes that NFL teams like and could pay immediate dividends as a boundary field stretcher. However, whether he can grow into a high-volume player is a question mark. The Super Model views Brazzell as a mid-to-late second-round NFL pick. He is a boom-bust WR4 profile in fantasy football.

Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
  • aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
  • Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
  • Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
  • Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
  • Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
  • FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
  • Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
  • Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
  • Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
  • RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
  • SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
  • Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
  • TPRR: Targets per route run.
  • YAC: Average yards after the catch.
  • YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
  • YPG: Yards per game.
  • YPRR: Yards per route run.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Dont'e Thornton
    Dont'eThornton
    WRLVLV
    PPG
    1.68