Chris Bell Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For The 2026 NFL Draft
Fantasy

Chris Bell Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For The 2026 NFL Draft

Dwain McFarland breaks down what the 2026 Wide Receiver Rookie Super Model has to say about Chris Bell of Louisville.

Chris Bell of Louisville tied for the WR9 in the 2026 Rookie Super Model, where I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model. You can find my complete profiles of the 2026 NFL Draft wide receiver prospects here.

If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.

You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For Chris Bell

  • Super Model Rating: 74 (89th since 2018)
  • Draft Pick: 48
  • Rookie Age: 22.2
  • Height: 74 inches
  • Weight: 222 pounds

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Bell was a three-star recruit out of Mississippi in the 2022 recruiting class. He had multiple Power 5 offers, but ultimately decided to attend Louisville.

He played all four years at Louisville. He saw only a 24% route participation rate as a freshman, but grew his role to 50% as a sophomore. Over the final two seasons, he posted an 89% route participation rate in healthy games. 

Bell suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late November of the 2025 season.

What the Production Says

Bell was a slow starter in college. He didn't register a notable RYPTPA season until his third season. He was above average when targeted.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 38th percentile
  • Targeted QB Passer Rating: 113.2, 60th percentile

Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.

Bell played with some highly lauded recruits, but none of them turned out to be future NFL stars, making it hard to excuse his 0.43 and 0.99 RYPTPA marks in his first two seasons.

In his third season, he averaged 57 YPG with 4 receiving TDs, notching a 1.72 RYPTPA. His best season came as a senior when he delivered a 2.47 RYPTPA. Before a late-season ACL injury, Bell averaged 83 YPG and scored 6 TDs on a career-high 30% target share (64th percentile).

Nerd-Note.webp Nerd Note: The Rookie Super Model doesn't count games the player missed. The denominator for each stat is based on only data from games played.

In the end, Bell took too long to break out. That holds his Production Rating (74) down.

His peripheral data points align with that assessment:

  • Career YPRR: 2.01 (40th percentile)
  • Career FDPRR: 9% (43rd percentile)
  • Career Target Share: 17% (41st percentile)
  • Career TPRR: 21%

Additionally, he was below average against zone coverage with a 19% TPRR. That isn't ideal in a league that runs zone coverage ~70% of plays.

Beyond the Production

Bell has one of the weirder target-depth distributions in the class. His short targets were 21 percentage points higher than the average prospect, but he was below average in every other bucket.

  • Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 5% (-9 vs. avg)
  • Short Targets (0-9 yards): 57% (+21 vs. avg)
  • Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 23% (-3 vs. avg)
  • Deep Targets (20+ yards): 16% (-6 vs. avg)

He primarily played on the boundary (91% snaps wide) and posted a career aDOT of 10.7 (47th percentile). Despite a below-average target depth, Bell had a high career-contested target rate of 26% (47th percentile).

His aDOT/alignment-adjusted contested target rate improved over his final two seasons, but they were still higher than expected (+4% and +5%). Fortunately, Bell was a solid performer when challenged by defenders. His 56% contested-catch rate is well above the 46% average. 

Bell improved his drop rate each season: 9% → 7% → 3%. His career drop rate was 5.8%, slightly above average.

Bell was above average with the ball in his hands. His career 5.8 YAC was 0.8 yards over expected after adjusting for aDOT. That jives with his targeted passer rating.

When you zoom out on all of the data points, Bell doesn't pop as a special prospect, but he might be good enough to work as an underneath target as a WR2 or WR3 for an NFL offense.

That data aligns with Lance Zierlein's overall assessment. He describes Bell as a possession WR but offers upside after the catch. Zierlein noted Bell as a plus player on crossers, but struggles to beat press coverage and "lacks salesmanship and disguise" with his routes. Bell's prospect grade of 6.2 from NFL.com lands at the 54th percentile. 

Bell's best fit might be on a team that uses motion and play-action to play to his strengths as a YAC option early, as he works out the kinks as a route runner.

Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 62 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 69 and 79, with 31% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 8%
  • Top-24 finishes: 21%
  • Top-36 finishes: 31%

Bell's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Bell profiles as an underneath WR who can add value after the catch, but he might need a creative offense that uses motion and play-action to get him into space. The Super Model views Bell as a Round 3 NFL Draft pick. He is a WR4 profile for fantasy purposes, but could improve with the right landing spot.

Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
  • aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
  • Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
  • Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
  • Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
  • Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
  • FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
  • Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
  • Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
  • Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
  • RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
  • SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
  • Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
  • TPRR: Targets per route run.
  • YAC: Average yards after the catch.
  • YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
  • YPG: Yards per game.
  • YPRR: Yards per route run.

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