Ted Hurst Scouting Report And Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile

NFL Draft prospect Ted Hurst out of Georgia State checks in as the WR14 in the release of the 2026 Rookie Super Model.

I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model. You can find my complete profiles of the 2026 NFL Draft wide receiver prospects here.

If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.

You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.

Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For Ted Hurst

• Super Model Rating: 71 (109th since 2018)
• Draft Pick: 92
• Rookie Age: 22.2
• Height: 76 inches
• Weight: 206 pounds

Prospect Summary

Hurst was a zero-star prospect in 2022 out of Savannah, Georgia. He played his first two seasons in Division II for Valdosta State. 

He entered the transfer portal as a zero-star prospect in 2024 and signed with Georgia State in the Sun Belt. He briefly re-entered the portal in 2025 as a three-star prospect and drew interest from Power Four schools, but decided to stay at Georgia State.

What the Production Says

We don't have Division II data in the Rookie Super Model database, so we only have two seasons to go on with Hurst. The model is treating those as his third and fourth seasons.

Hurst was above average in the RYPTPA department, but his targeted QB passer rating wasn't great.

• Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 54th percentile
• Targeted QB Passer Rating: 83.6, 29th percentile

Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.

The model accounts for QB play, but it's worth mentioning that the Panthers were well below average in passer rating at 84 and 85 during Hurst's two seasons. The average for a QB with at least 350 dropbacks in a season since 2018: 93.

In his first season in the Sun Belt, Hurst delivered 80 YPG and 9 TDs, with a 2.13 RYPTPA. He followed that up with a 2.10 RYPTPA, collecting 83 YPG and 6 TDs in Year 4.

Additional data context on Hurst:

• Career YPRR: 2.25 (47th percentile)
• Career FDPRR: 10% (52nd percentile)
• Career Target Share: 26% (71st percentile)
• Career TPRR: 26% (31% vs. man; 25% vs. zone)

Beyond the Production

Hurst was most active in the short and deep areas of the field on his targets.

• Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 5% (-9 vs. avg)
• Short Targets (0-9 yards): 39% (+3 vs. avg)
• Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 27% (+1 vs avg)
• Deep Targets (20+ yards): 29% (+7 vs avg)

He was a boundary WR playing wide 83% of snaps and had a career aDOT of 14.6 (69th percentile). His 4.6 YAC was -0.2 over expected after adjusting for aDOT.

From a contested-catch perspective, Hurst dominated Sun Belt competition, hauling in 61% of his contested targets. Whether that translates to higher-end competition remains a question mark. He dropped the ball slightly more than average (5.8%).

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com sees Hurst as a field-stretcher who tracks well but has average hands. He sees his YAC ability as a plus, which we don't see in the data—but that is another area QB play can impact—and is why I want Film Rating in the model. Ultimately, Zierlein views Hurst as a good backup who will need to prove he can beat higher-end competition than what he faced in the Sun Belt. He received a prospect grade of 6.17 (53rd percentile).

Hurst ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, which could give teams more confidence about his deep speed.

Fantasy Outlook

Since 2018, 73 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, with 19% delivering a top-36 finish by Year 3.

• Top-six finishes: 4%
• Top-12 finishes: 7%
• Top-24 finishes: 14%
• Top-36 finishes: 19%

Hurst's closest Super Model comps:

• Gabe Davis
• Jalen Tolbert

Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Hurst as a field-stretching Day 3 NFL Draft prospect. On the right team, that role could earn him immediate playing time if he performs well in training camp. He is a WR5 dart-throw as a prospect for fantasy football.  

Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile

• Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
• aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
• Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
• Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
• Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
• Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
• FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
• Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
• Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
• Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
• RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
• SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
• Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
• TPRR: Targets per route run.
• YAC: Average yards after the catch.
• YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
• YPG: Yards per game.
• YPRR: Yards per route run.