Makai Lemon Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile For The 2026 NFL Draft
Dwain McFarland breaks down what the 2026 Wide Receiver Rookie Super Model has to say about USC wideout Makai Lemon.
Despite the interesting Combine aura, USC's Makai Lemon lands as the WR2 in my WR Super Model, where I've profiled 25 of the top wide receivers in the class with individual Prospect Profiles from their Super Model data. For the full WR class, check out the 2026 WR Rookie Super Model. You can find my complete profiles of the 2026 NFL Draft wide receiver prospects here.
If you're new to the model, here is an introductory breakdown of the Rookie Super Model, which rates players on a scale of 50 to 100 based on a composite score across Draft Capital, Production and Film. All of this data is integrated into our free NFL Draft Guide, full of big board rankings, mock drafts and more.
You can find a glossary of terms and stats used in this breakdown at the bottom of the prospect profile.
Makai Lemon Rookie Super Model Prospect Profile
- Super Model Rating: 87 (16th since 2018)
- Draft Pick (based on Mock Draft data): 12
- Rookie Age: 22.3
- Height: 71 inches
- Weight: 192 pounds
Lemon was a highly-lauded WR in the 2023 recruiting class, receiving 4- and 5-star ratings. ESPN, 247Sports and Rivals all ranked him as a top-15 WR in his class.
He played three seasons at USC on an offense that featured multiple future NFL Draft selections: Zachariah Branch, Tahj Washington, Ja'Kobi Lane, Lake McCree, Woody Marks and Marshawn Lloyd.
Lemon improved every season at USC, winning the Biletnikoff Award in his final year.
What the Production Says
Lemon posted an 82 Production Rating, which is a solid rating, but ranks third among the top three WRs in the 2026 class. The average Production Rating for WRs taken between picks 10 and 16 since 2018 is 84.
- Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 55th percentile
- Targeted QB Passer Rating: 122.0, 69th percentile
Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
Lemon didn't play a huge role as a freshman, with a 0.42 RYPTPA, but made significant strides over Years 2 and 3: 1.56 and 2.94. In a less-crowded offense in 2025, Lemon delivered 96.3 YPG with 11 TDs.
Considering his target competition, Lemon was ultimately a plus player over his career. His teammate-adjusted career RYPTPA was 0.51 over expected.
While his playmaking ability when targeted is helping carry his Production Rating, Lemon flashed high-end upside as a target earner, with a 28% target share in his third and final year. His lower target shares over his first two years were driven by a WR rotation that kept his playing time down. His career targets per route run (TPRR) of 29% closely mirrors his final season. That TPRR isn't far off from the class leader, Jordyn Tyson, at 31%.
Lemon was a key chain-mover for the Trojans' offense, notching a first down on 13% of his routes (71st percentile). His production profile points to a player who can add value to an NFL offense in a variety of ways.
Beyond the Production
Lemon did much of his damage behind the line of scrimmage and in the short range, but also earned looks deep. He isn't a gadget player. Lemon can win at multiple field depths.
- Behind the Line of Scrimmage Targets: 22% (+8 vs. avg)
- Short Targets (0-9 yards): 39% (+3 vs. avg)
- Medium Targets (10-19 yards): 16% (-10 vs. avg)
- Deep Targets (20+ yards): 23% (+1 vs. avg)
The slot position was home base for Lemon, with 23% of his snaps coming from a wide alignment. But he still showed an ability to win over the top. More of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield than Carnell Tate or Tyson.
The data also paints the picture of a dangerous weapon after the catch. Lemon's YAC of 6.6 was +1.4 yards over expected after adjusting for his aDOT. Some teams might have questions about Lemon's size translating to a broader role at the next level, but he was an exceptional contested-catch artist at USC, snarring 57% of those opportunities.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has a 6.70 prospect grade (79th percentile) on Lemon. Zierlein's film assessment of ball-tracking skills and timing, as well as toughness and focus in contested situations, aligns with Lemon's strong deep-target rate and contested-catch data.
On the flip side, Zierlein describes Lemon's ability after the catch as "relatively ordinary", which contrasts with his data profile. This isn't a bad thing. The Film Rating component of the Rookie Super Model is designed to give us a balanced view of a prospect. We want the most complete picture of a prospect we can get and film matters.
Still, Lemon's Film Rating of 89 is the second-best in the class, and is a big part of him rating so highly in the Rookie Super Model.
Fantasy Outlook For Makai Lemon
Since 2018, 19 WRs have posted a Super Model rating between 82 and 92, with 68% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.
- Top-six finishes: 16%
- Top-12 finishes: 26%
- Top-24 finishes: 68%
- Top-36 finishes: 84%
Lemon's closest Super Model comps:
Bottom line: The Rookie Super Model views Lemon as a mid-first-round NFL Draft prospect. His role and production improved every season in a strong program that played against high-quality competition. His best fit early is likely from the slot, but he isn't a gimmick player—Lemon can stretch defenses and move the sticks in contested situations. Lemon profiles as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
Glossary of Terms In The Prospect Profile
- Adjusted Career RYPTPA: Career receiving yards per team pass attempt adjusted for age, strength of schedule, QB play, teammate competition, aDOT, and alignment. Doesn't count games missed.
- aDOT: Average depth of target in yards.
- Career Targeted QB Passer Rating: Passer rating on WR's targets.
- Contested catch rate: Percentage of contested targets caught.
- Contested catch rate over expected: Percentage of contested targets caught after adjusting for aDOT.
- Draft Capital Rating: Based on Chase Stuart's Draft Value Chart, an improved version of what many know as the Jimmy Johnson trade chart. It accounts for the larger drop-off in the first round and a flatter drop-off around the end of the second round.
- FDPRR: First downs per route run. Often shown as a percentage (first downs divided by routes).
- Film Rating: Based on NFL.com prospect grades from Lance Zierlein.
- Production Rating: A combination of adjusted career RYPTPA and career targeted QB passer rating.
- Program Quality Rating: ESPN's College Football Power Index is used to assess program quality. The model accounts for each school a prospect attended.
- RYPTPA: receiving yards per team pass attempt.
- SOS Rating: Based on strength of schedule (SOS) from Sports Reference. The model accounts for each school the prospect attended.
- Target Share: A player's percentage of team targets in games played.
- TPRR: Targets per route run.
- YAC: Average yards after the catch.
- YAC over expected: YAC over expected after adjusting for aDOT.
- YPG: Yards per game.
- YPRR: Yards per route run.
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