Upgrades For Week 6 Running Back Rankings: James Cook Stampedes The Raiders

Let's get into the Week 6 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 6 favorites and fades.

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Week 6 Running Back Rankings (Top 24)

Rank	Player
1	Bijan Robinson
2	Kenneth Walker
3	Jonathan Taylor
4	Kyren Williams
5	Derrick Henry
6	Christian McCaffrey
7	James Cook
8	Javonte Williams
9	Jaylen Warren
10	Chuba Hubbard
12	Ashton Jeanty
13	D'Andre Swift
14	Bucky Irving
15	Rhamondre Stevenson
16	Cam Skattebo
17	Bhayshul Tuten
18	Emanuel Wilson
19	Braelon Allen
20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt
21	MarShawn Lloyd
22	Tony Pollard
23	Quinshon Judkins
24	Jo'quavioius Marks

Week 6 Matchup Upgrades: Cam Skattebo vs. Saints & Tony Pollard at Colts

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Saints and Colts are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

Saints: No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.2)
Colts: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.017)

Bang a gong.

Cam Skattebo (Giants) vs. Saints: I haven't been overly impressed with what we've seen from Skattebo this year (9.3 fantasy points per game, 373 yards, 1 TD on 81 carries, 12 targets, 69 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But his usage has remained intact in his three games with QB Jameis Winston as the starter (67% snap rate, 62% rush share, 50% goal-line rush share, 52% route rate, 70 Utilization Score), and now he gets a friendly matchup against the Saints, who are without DT Bryan Bresee (knee, IR) and might additionally miss DTs Vernon Broughton (illness) and Nathan Shepherd (illness) and LB Kaden Elliss (calf) in the front seven. It's just a bonus that this is the third home game in four weeks for the Giants.

Tony Pollard (Titans) at Colts: Pollard might be the NFL's least impressive starting RB this year (7.9 fantasy points per game, 297 yards, 1 TD on 68 carries, 12 targets, 59 Utilization Score). But the Colts are similarly poor in run defense, they're without EDGEs Arden Key (hamstring, IR) and Micheal Clemons (toe, IR), they might not have LB Jaylon Carlies (ribs), and their home-field advantage barely matters in this spot because the Titans play in division on a similar turf surface. I'm not saying I want to bet on the Titans … but divisional road underdogs tend to be sharp (730-626-37 ATS, 4.5% ROI, per Action Network). If you're a sicko (and we both know you are), you might be able to get away with starting Pollard in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 6 Scoring Upgrades: James Cook at Raiders & MarShawn Lloyd vs. Cowboys

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Bills are No. 2 in implied team total (29.5 points); the Packers, No. 4 (27.0).

Upgrades warranted.

James Cook (Bills) at Raiders: The Bills are on a one-day deficit off Monday Night Football and playing their second straight West Coast road game. As for Cook, he has done almost nothing as a receiver in his three games this year with pass-catching specialist RB Ty Johnson (3-15-0 receiving, 4 targets, 33% route rate), and he doesn't have a strong role inside the 5-yard line (54% goal-line rush share). Even so, he has been one of the league's best pure runners this season (95-532-5 rushing), and the Raiders are No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (-0.1%).

MarShawn Lloyd (Packers) vs. Cowboys: Lloyd has utterly disappointed this year (7.5 fantasy points per game, 167 yards, 3 TDs on 40 carries, 13 targets, 47 Utilization Score). Even so, last week he showed that he has the ability to turn modest usage (44% snap rate, 56 Utilization Score) into functional production (16.2 fantasy points, 37 yards, 2 TDs on 10 carries, 2 targets). It's not ideal that his OL could be down three starters in RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee, IR), RG Jacob Monk (quadriceps) and LG Aaron Banks (toe). On top of that, the Cowboys have three extra days off after Thursday Night Football. But also … it's the Cowboys, who have traveled more than any team over the past month (11,434 miles) and yield an amplified home-field advantage to the Packers because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). It's just a bonus that the Cowboys are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+4.9) and could be without LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring).

Week 6 Home Favorite Upgrades: Jonathan Taylor vs. Titans & Dameon Pierce vs. Panthers

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. Titans: Taylor had a forgettable performance last week (9.7 fantasy points, 82 yards, 0 TDs on 15 carries, 4 targets), but I expect a bounceback against the Titans, who just allowed the 0-4 Texans to put up 26 points. The home-field advantage for the Colts softens in this spot because the Titans play in division on a similar turf surface. Still, the Colts are -6.5 favorites, and Taylor is one of the league's most used RBs (82% snap rate, 78% rush share, 85% goal-line rush share, 59% route rate, 90 Utilization Score). One of Taylor's vintage 100-yard, 2-TD games feels at hand.

Dameon Pierce (Eagles) vs. Panthers: The Eagles are coming off the London game and have traveled a lot over the past month (9,098 miles), whereas the Panthers are off the bye and have traveled little (1,547 miles). But as of now the Eagles are -1.5 favorites at home, where they have a boosted advantage because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf). On top of that, the Panthers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.4) and could be without EDGE Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and NT Cam Jackson (knee) in addition to DT Tershawn Wharton (neck, PUP). With No. 1 RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and change-of-pace RB Will Shipley (foot) injured last week, Pierce stepped up to serve as the team's top back (78% snap rate, 60 Utilization Score). Granted, his production absolutely sucked (2.2 fantasy points, 12 yards, 0 TDs on 11 carries, 5 targets), and it's unfortunate that his OL is basically a missing persons report: LG Landon Dickerson (knee, IR), C Drew Kendall (knee), C/G Cam Jurgens (traded) and RT Lane Johnson (retired). But if Barkley and Shipley are out once again, Pierce could do some damage. If available on waivers, Pierce deserves to be picked up based on his theoretical volume alone.

Week 6 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Jets & Braelon Allen at Patriots

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) vs. Jets: The Pats have a drastically reduced home-field advantage in this spot because the Jets play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar outdoor stadium … but over the last 16 games they have the league's No. 2 HFA (+9.90, per NFElo), and QB Drake Maye has been his best in division (9-2 ATS, 56.0% ROI). Without No. 2 RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) and WRs A.J. Brown (ankle, IR) and Mack Hollins (calf, IR), Stevenson could dominate the Pats backfield, especially as a home favorite. Without Henderson in Week 1, Stevenson was a usage all-star (85% snap rate, 72% rush share, 69% route rate, 92 Utilization Score). He's a short-term fantasy upgrade.

Braelon Allen (Jets) at Patriots: No. 1 RB Breece Hall (quadriceps) has been out the past two weeks, and in his absence Allen has had respectable production (12.9 fantasy points per game, 183 yards, 1 TD on 38 carries, 6 targets) and strong usage (89% snap rate, 88% rush share, 72% route rate, 81 Utilization Score). As noted above, the Jets drastically cut into home-field advantage for the Pats because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar outdoor stadium. The Pats are No. 30 in defensive rush EPA (-0.015) and could be without EDGEs Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder) and Harold Landry (undisclosed, PUP).

Week 6 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Javonte Williams at Packers & D'Andre Swift at Falcons

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) at Packers: As I noted above in the Lloyd blurb, the Cowboys have traveled more than any team over the past month (11,434 miles) and yield an amplified home-field advantage to the Packers because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf),and outdoors (vs. indoors). Plus, QB Dak Prescott has struggled the most throughout his career outside division (44-56-2 ATS, -14.6% ROI). But the Cowboys also have three extra days off after Thursday Night Football, the Packers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (26.4), and in their front seven they're without NT Javon Hargrave (Achilles), EDGE Micah Parsons (knee, PUP), and LB Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles, IR). Williams has the production (17.5 fantasy points per game, 370 yards, 7 TDs on 74 carries, 20 targets) and utilization (77% snap rate, 77% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 46% route rate, 84 Utilization Score) to exploit the matchup.

D'Andre Swift (Bears) at Falcons: This is the fifth (FIFTH!) time this year Swift has been a fantasy favorite of mine. That might seem extreme, but it's hard to quibble with what he has done (14.8 fantasy points per game, 468 yards, 4 TDs on 78 carries, 16 targets, 74 Utilization Score). While No. 2 RB Kyle Monangai (toe) is uncertain, QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) will probably return this week after finishing last week with a limited practice, which should give a boost to the offense. Williams has been his best outside division (16-7-1 ATS, 32.4% ROI), and the Falcons could be thin on the DL without EDGEs Za'Darius Smith (concussion), Jalon Walker (knee, IR), and James Pearce (suspension) and DT Da'Shawn Hand (quadriceps, IR).

Notes

Week 6 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Lions, Bengals, Vikings and Dolphins are off.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.