WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 6 Fantasy Football: George Pickens, Michael Wilson & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Texans and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

• Texans: No. 2 in defensive dropback SR (40.6%)
• Seahawks: No. 2 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.045) and pass DVOA (-17.7%)
   

Here be dragons.

Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs. Texans (in London): This fade call could end up looking terrible, because Washington has been great this year (10.1 yards per target), and last week he had his best performance of the season (27.4 fantasy points, 6-124-2 receiving, 9 targets, 81 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Plus, the Jags have a significant travel edge in that they're playing their second straight game in London, whereas the Texans are flying there this week (league-worst 4,200 miles). And it definitely helps Washington's case that he plays primarily in the slot and the Texans could be without their top interior pass defender in S/CB Jalen Pitre (shoulder). But Washington has had double-digit targets in just one game this year because of how the Jags like to spread the ball around, and the matchup is traditionally a tough one: In two games against the Texans last season, he massively underwhelmed (7.9 fantasy points per game, 3.7 yards per target, -4 yards rushing). Plus, LT Anton Harrison (knee) is questionable for the Jags.

Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) vs. Seahawks: There's not one part of the Waddle experience in Denver that has gone well. For the season, he has been an abject failure (7.9 fantasy points per game, 18-204-1 receiving, 31 targets with 2-23-0 rushing). His usage has been a joke (79% route rate, 22% target share, 33% air yard share, 0% end-zone target share, 56 Utilization Score). And his biggest problem might not even have anything to do with him. It might be the offense: The Broncos have failed to score even 24 points in every game but one, and I doubt they will be able to figure out their issues with short prep time. The setup is decent: The Broncos have had the No. 3 home-field advantage over the past five years (+6.94, per NFElo), and they have a boosted HFA against the Seahawks because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Even so, I can't imagine feeling good about starting Waddle in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Scoring Downgrades In My Week 6 WR Rankings: Tetairoa McMillan at Eagles & Michael Wilson at Rams 

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the WRs."

This week the Panthers are No. 21 in implied team total (20.0 points vs. 30.2), and the Cardinals are No. 22 (19.0 vs. 21.6).

Downgrades warranted.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) at Eagles: Coming off the bye, the Panthers have traveled little over the past month (1,547 miles), whereas the Eagles, coming off the London game, have traveled a lot (9,098 miles). Additionally, McMillan looked like one of the league's best WRs in Week 4, just before the break (38.2 fantasy points per game, 14-192-2 receiving, 16 targets, 98 Utilization Score). But he's uncertain to have RT Monroe Freeling (knee) and LG Damien Lewis (elbow), and the Eagles have a boosted home-field advantage because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf). Plus, the Eagles are No. 5 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-21.6%).

Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Rams: Wilson had a modest start to the season (5.5 fantasy points per game, 7-74-0 receiving, 14 targets, 51 Utilization Score), but in the three weeks since then he has been significantly more productive (12.9 fantasy points per game, 22-214-1 receiving, 37 targets) and monstrously more utilized (91% route rate, 29% target share, 38% air yard share, 29% end-zone target share, 92 Utilization Score). Plus, there's this nugget: In two games last year against the Rams, he looked like Jerry Rice (25.1 fantasy points per game, 16-241-3 receiving, 24 targets). But this year the Rams are No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-46.3%), and LT Paris Johnson (biceps, IR) and RG Isaiah Adams (ankle, IR) are out.

Week 6 Situational Downgrades In My WR Ranks: George Pickens at Packers & Luther Burden at Falcons

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such WRs who stand out.

George Pickens (Cowboys) at Packers: Last week I highlighted Pickens as one of my fantasy fades. Let's see how that did … looking … looking … aha, yes, well, he did just alright (23.5 fantasy points, 9-130-1 receiving, 13 targets, 99 Utilization Score). But to be fair to myself (and I'm always more than fair to myself), I should note that much of this production came with No. 1 WR CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) out of the game, and I expect him to return to action in Week 6. That means that Pickens is one of my fantasy fades once again. While the Cowboys have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, they have traveled more than any team over the past month (11,434 miles), and they also yield an amplified home-field advantage to the Packers because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). And on the topic of outside division: That's where Prescott has struggled the most throughout his career (44-56-2 ATS, -14.6% ROI, per Action Network). Finally, the Packers are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs (-64.1%), and the offense could be without LT Tyler Guyton (back).

Luther Burden (Bears) at Falcons: I'm almost sick to my stomach with how funny I think this bit is. I've highlighted Burden as a fantasy fade literally every week this season, and that's not enough for me. (Why, yes, I do like beating dead horses, why do you ask?) In only one game this season has Burden scored even 9.5 fantasy points. He has been an utter disappointment given the hype he had in the offseason (8.9 fantasy points per game, 23-266-1 receiving, 35 targets with 7-22-0 rushing). QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) seems likely to return this week, which should give a boost to the offense, but the fact remains that Burden (23-266-1 receiving, 35 targets) is basically a co-No. 3 WR in the offense with Rome Odunze (17-273-0, 29) and Kalif Raymond (24-226-1, 27). Williams has been his best outside division (16-7-1 ATS, 32.4% ROI), but the Falcons have a boosted home-field advantage because the Bears are outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Offensive Injury Downgrades In My Week 6 WR Rankings: Emeka Egbuka vs. Steelers & Marquez Valdes-Scantling at Chiefs 

Here are a couple WRs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) vs. Steelers: Egbuka had a decent game last week (14.2 fantasy points, 9 targets), but 1) that was against the Cowboys, 2) he had just 6-38-0 receiving, and 3) his main source of production was a smidge fluky (1-14-1 rushing). This week is different. OK, fine, the setup for the Bucs is good: They have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and this is their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have an amplified advantage because the Steelers are outside division and conference. And the Steelers could be without CB Jamel Dean (ankle). But as long as QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out, Egbuka should be downgraded against the average "non-Cowboys professional defense," and that's what the Steelers have. In Week 4 without Mayfield, Egbuka was definitionally pathetic (2.3 fantasy points, 2-13-0 receiving, 4 targets, 39 Utilization Score).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chargers) at Chiefs: Let's say you're desperate because there are four teams on bye, and you have a number of WRs who are out and/or injured. You see Valdes-Scantling sitting there on waivers, and you think: "Hey, No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey (foot) technically didn't play last week, and Nos. 2-3 WRs Quentin Johnston (chest) and Tre Harris (hamstring) are uncertain. This guy might actually be the No. 1 WR for QB Justin Herbert this week!" I get it. And I'm sympathetic. Philosophically, I want to like the Chargers and Valdes-Scantling in this spot. Herbert has done well in the past against Chiefs HC Andy Reid (8-2-1 ATS, 52.6% ROI), as has HC Jim Harbaugh (5-0-1 ATS, 80.0% ROI). Additionally, Herbert has dominated in division (22-11-1 ATS, 28.0% ROI). But the Chiefs are coming off the bye, and the Chargers are playing their third road game in four weeks. Not great. And here's what's worse: The Chiefs are No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (-65.8%) and fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (15.6), and the Chargers have a decimated OL: LT Rashawn Slater (ankle, IR) and C Tyler Biadasz (knee, IR) are out, and RT Joe Alt (neck) and LG Kayode Awosika (lower leg) are questionable. At some point, the 0-5 Chargers will bounce back … but not this week. Resist the siren song of Valdes-Scantling.

Notes

Week 6 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades
   

Byes: This week, the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Dolphins are off.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
   

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)