QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 6 Fantasy Football: Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold & More

Week 6 Matchup Downgrades In My QB Rankings: Bo Nix vs. Seahawks & Dak Prescott at Packers

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP matrix, as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Seahawks and Packers are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Seahawks: No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA (-17.7%)
• Packers: No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs (11.2)

Here be dragons.

Bo Nix (Broncos) vs. Seahawks: Nix was maybe the most ardent of my 2026 fantasy fades entering the season, and frankly I feel vindicated already. To this point, Nix has been neither productive (13.6 fantasy points per game, 942 yards passing, 6 TDs, 3 INTs with 18-35-1 rushing) nor efficient (59.9% completion rate, 5.7 AY/A). The setup is decent for him: The Broncos have had the No. 3 home-field advantage over the past five years (+6.94, per NFElo), and they have a boosted HFA against the Seahawks because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). But the play-calling switch from OC Davis Webb to HC Sean Payton didn't go well last week for Nix (7.9 fantasy points, 123 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INTs with 4-10-0 rushing), and I doubt the Broncos will be able to figure out their offensive issues with short prep time. I can't imagine feeling good about starting Nix in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Packers: On the one hand, the Cowboys have three extra days off Thursday Night Football. On the other hand, they have traveled more than any team over the past month (11,434 miles) and yield an amplified home-field advantage to the Packers because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). And on the topic of outside division: That's where Prescott has struggled the most throughout his career (44-56-2 ATS, -14.6% ROI, per Action Network). Prescott has been good this year (19.4 fantasy points per game, 1,381 yards passing, 9 TDs, 3 INTs with 12-66-0 rushing), but the edge is against him this week, especially since the offense is dealing with injuries to WR CeeDee Lamb (quadriceps) and LT Tyler Guyton (back).

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 6 QB Ranks: Patrick Mahomes vs. Chargers & Bryce Young at Eagles

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the QB."

This week the Chiefs are No. 7 in implied team total (25.5 points vs. 29.5), and the Panthers are No. 21 (20.0 vs. 30.2).

Downgrades warranted.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Chargers: The Chiefs should be fresh off the bye … but LT Josh Simmons (back) is yet to play this year, and WRs Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle) both suffered injuries in Week 4. The Chiefs are in Kansas City, but they've had the league's No. 3 worst home-field advantage over the past five years (-0.61), and it doesn't get a boost hosting the division rival Chargers, against whom Mahomes has notably struggled (4-8-2 ATS, -31.0% ROI). Mahomes could still go off: He has been great this year (21.4 fantasy points per game, 1,037 yards passing, 9 TDs, 2 INTs with 12-41-1 rushing), and the Chargers could be without CB Donte Jackson (hamstring) and SS Derwin James (hamstring) in the secondary. But we tend not to see many points in general at Arrowhead Stadium: No QB has been more profitable to the under at home than Mahomes (50-30-1, 19.7% ROI).

Bryce Young (Panthers) at Eagles: Coming off the bye, the Panthers have traveled little over the past month (1,547 miles), whereas the Eagles, coming off the London game, have traveled a lot (9,098 miles). On top of that, Young entered the break looking like one of the league's best QBs (23.2 fantasy points per game, 1,268 yards passing, 9 TDs, 2 INTs with 6-19-1 rushing). But he's uncertain to have WR Jalen Coker (quadriceps), RT Monroe Freeling (knee), and LG Damien Lewis (elbow), and the Eagles have a boosted home-field advantage because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf). The Eagles defense could be without EDGEs Jonathan Greenard (ankle) and Jalyx Hunt (ankle) and SS Marcus Epps (groin), but this will still likely be the hardest matchup Young has faced to this point this year.

Week 6 QB Rankings - Situational Downgrades: Aaron Rodgers at Buccaneers & Sam Darnold at Broncos

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) at Buccaneers: After a subpar start to the season, Rodgers has been dealing over his past three games (23.2 fantasy points per game, 826 yards passing, 9 TDs, 3 INTs with 4-16-0 rushing) … but I don't like his setup: The Bucs have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and this is their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have an amplified advantage because the Steelers are outside division and conference. Finally, the Steelers are without No. 2 WR Michael Pittman (foot, IR), No. 3 WR Roman Wilson (finger) is doubtful, and backup WR Ben Skowronek (leg) is uncertain.

Sam Darnold (Seahawks) at Broncos: As noted earlier in the Bo Nix blurb, the setup isn't great for the Seahawks. The Broncos have had the No. 3 home-field advantage over the past five years (+6.94), and they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). On top of that, they're No. 4 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.037). Darnold gets a break because the Broncos could be without CBs Patrick Surtain (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs) and SS Talanoa Hufanga (ankle), but I'm skeptical that the Seahawks will be able to formulate an exploitative game plan on short rest, especially given that, for his career, Darnold has underwhelmed with just four days to prep (2-5 ATS, -47.1% ROI). Last week, he failed to impress (10.3 fantasy points, 195 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INTs with 1-5-0 rushing).

Offensive Injury Downgrades In My QB Rankings For Week 6: Jalen Hurts vs. Panthers & Justin Herbert at Chiefs

Here are a couple QBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles) vs. Panthers: I noted this earlier when highlighting (or lowlighting) Bryce Young … the Eagles are coming off the London game and have traveled a lot over the past month (9,098 miles), whereas the Panthers are off the bye and have traveled little (1,547 miles). The Eagles do have a boosted home-field advantage because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf), but Hurts has been a diminished version of himself this season (16.6 fantasy points per game, 933 yards passing, 8 TDs, 3 INTs with 23-107-1 rushing), and without No. 1 WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), that has especially been the case over the past two weeks (13.2 fantasy points per game, 313 yards passing, 3 TDs, 0 INTs with 7-20-0 rushing). A different QB might be able to take advantage of the fact that the Panthers are without CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR) and Mike Jackson (groin, IR) … but Hurts could be without RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring), LG Landon Dickerson (knee, IR), C Drew Kendall (knee), C/G Cam Jurgens (traded), and RT Lane Johnson (retired). He's not likely to make the most of a few good factors.

Justin Herbert (Chargers) at Chiefs: The Chiefs are coming off the bye, and the Chargers are playing their third road game in four weeks. Philosophically, I want to like Herbert in this spot. He has done well in the past against Chiefs HC Andy Reid (8-2-1 ATS, 52.6% ROI), as has HC Jim Harbaugh (5-0-1 ATS, 80.0% ROI). Additionally, Herbert has dominated in division (22-11-1 ATS, 28.0% ROI). But this season his play has been atrocious, both his overall production (12.1 fantasy points per game, 937 yards passing, 5 TDs, 7 INTs with 24-142-0 rushing) and startling inefficiency (59.4% completion rate, 5.0 AY/A). Now he has a tough matchup against the Chiefs, who are No. 4 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-4.6), and his offensive support has been decimated. No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey (foot) technically suited up last week but didn't play. Nos. 2-3 WRs Quentin Johnston (chest) and Tre Harris (hamstring) are uncertain. LT Rashawn Slater (ankle, IR) and C Tyler Biadasz (knee, IR) are out, and RT Joe Alt (neck) and LG Kayode Awosika (lower leg) are questionable. At some point, Herbert and the 0-5 Chargers will bounce back … but not this week.

Notes

Week 6 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Dolphins are off.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)