Upgrades For Week 4 Wide Receiver Rankings: Zay Flowers Will Bloom

Let's get into the Week 4 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 4 favorites and fades.

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Week 4 Wide Receiver Rankings

Week 4 Matchup Upgrades: Emeka Egbuka vs. Packers & Jordan Addison vs. Dolphins

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Packers and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.

• Packers: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+7.3)
• Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0464) and pass DVOA (61.0%)

Bang a gong.

Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) vs. Packers: It's not ideal that Egbuka will be without QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) for Week 4 … but in Weeks 1-3, the Packers were destroyed by WRs (38-467-3 receiving, 54 targets) on offenses with QBs Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Geno Smith and Michael Penix. Those guys are probably better than undrafted rookie backup Jalon Daniels, but a WR doesn't need to be attached to an elite QB to have success against the Packers, who have massively struggled without first-team All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons (knee, PUP). Egbuka hasn't been great this season (8.8 fantasy points per game, 13-141-1 receiving, 20 targets), but he's still the top pass catcher for the team (61 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report) … and it just so happens that the Packers are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (70.7%). Plus, I like his setup: The Bucs are at home for their third straight game, and the Packers are on their third road game in four weeks. And 0-3 teams have traditionally excelled in Week 4 (58-36-3 ATS, 19.3% ROI, per Action Network). 

Jordan Addison (Vikings) vs. Dolphins: With No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) exiting last week early, Addison stepped up to lead the team in usage (100% route rate, 38% target share, 72% air yard share, 86 Utilization Score), which he leveraged into a season-best performance (5-90-1 receiving, 9 targets). If Jefferson is out again, Addison could continue to dominate, especially given his setup: This week, the Vikings are indoors in Minnesota, where they had the No. 5 home-field advantage last year (+9.51, per NFElo). Additionally, the Vikings have a fully maximized home edge against the Dolphins, who are out of division/conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Finally, QB Kyler Murray has been strong against non-divisional opponents throughout his career (36-22 ATS, 21.0% ROI).

Week 4 Scoring Upgrades: Zay Flowers vs. Titans & Tee Higgins vs. Jaguars

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WRs."

This week, the Ravens and Bengals are tied for No. 2 in implied team total (27.0 points).

Upgrades warranted.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Titans: In his two games this year, Flowers has balled out (10-234-1 receiving, 12 targets with 1-20-0 rushing), and the Ravens have scored 41 and 34 points. I don't see why we shouldn't get more of the same this week against the Titans, who yield an amplified home-field advantage to the Ravens because they're out of division and on grass (vs. turf). Not everything is perfect: LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) is injured, and the Ravens could be weary from the road (4,808 travel miles this week, 10,653 over the past month). But the 0-3 Titans are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA (27.6%): The balance of probability suggests the Ravens and Flowers will go off this week.

Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Jaguars: Teammate Ja'Marr Chase gets all the attention, but Higgins is actually No. 1 on the team in yards receiving (244) and No. 5 in the league in air yard share (47%). The Jags are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.9), and the Bengals have a boosted home-field advantage in this spot because the Jags are on turf (vs. grass) and outside division … and QB Joe Burrow has traditionally slayed non-divisional opponents (40-16-1 ATS, 36.2% ROI). 

Week 4 Indoors Upgrades: Drake London at Saints & Devaughn Vele vs. Falcons

In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Drake London (Falcons) at Saints: With the return of QB Michael Penix (knee) last week, the Falcons scored 35 points, and London looked like his 2024-25 self (23.9 fantasy points, 9-194-0 receiving, 10 targets). Now the Falcons have a three-day rest-and-prep advantage against the Saints, whose home-field advantage is cut down to the core because the Falcons play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. In his one game against the Saints last year, London did his thing (4-78-1 receiving, 8 targets). I expect more of the same.

Devaughn Vele (Saints) vs. Falcons: No. 1 WR Chris Olave is the headliner, but Vele also deserves some shine. Using the absence of No. 2 WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring, IR) to strengthen his position in the offense (10.2 fantasy points per game, 15-172-1 receiving, 22 targets, 93% route rate, 68 Utilization Score), Vele has an opportunity to exploit this matchup: The Falcons are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (43.4%), and No. 1 CB A.J. Terrell (groin, IR) is out. If you're desperate, I'm fine with starting Vele in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 4 Air Yards Upgrades: DeVonta Smith vs. Rams & Davante Adams at Eagles 

The WRs who are targeted downfield (the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares and WOPRs) have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.

You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Here are two air yard accumulators who have my attention this week.

DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs. Rams: I don't have much respect for the 2-1 Eagles. I think they're a fake football team: They have a negative point differential (-14) and a horrendous market record (0-3 ATS, -100% ROI). They're on their seventh offensive playcaller in seven years, new OC Sean Mannion has no prior playcalling experience, and longtime and legendary OL coach Jeff Stoutland is gone. It's no wonder the Eagles are underwhelming. But I still like Smith (Matthew Berry's 2026 Ride or Die), who has been productive this year (19-235-1 receiving, 27 targets) and is actually the No. 3 WR in WOPR (80%). And I like his setup: The Rams have traveled almost 20,000 miles this season (a league-worst mark), they're playing their second straight road game, and they're traveling across the country for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff. On top of that, the Eagles have an amplified home-field value against the Rams, who are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Finally, the Rams are No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.1), and they could be without CB Jaylen Watson (shoulder) and FS Kamren Kinchens (hamstring).

Davante Adams (Rams) at Eagles: On the one hand, the matchup is tough against CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. On the other hand, No. 1 WR Puka Nacua and TEs Terrance Ferguson (ankle) and Colby Parkinson (shoulder) could be out, and Adams has been a dominator over the past two weeks without Nacua (15-332-2 receiving, 23 targets, 53% air yard share, 67% end zone target share, 97 Utilization Score). For the season, Adams is No. 1 overall in air yards (474). The Rams have a travel disadvantage, but at least they have one extra day of rest relative to the Eagles.

Week 4 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Tetairoa McMillan vs. Lions & Xavier Hutchinson vs. Cowboys

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs. Lions: This one simple. This week the Panthers could be without WRs Jalen Coker (quadriceps) and Xavier Legette (knee), which means McMillan could have outsized usage. He did almost nothing last week (2.8 fantasy points, 2-18-0 receiving, 4 targets), but in the two prior games he dominated (10-176-0 receiving, 18 targets, 91% route rate, 39% air yard share, 25% end zone target share, 78 Utilization Score). The Lions are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.9), and they're missing SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR).

Xavier Hutchinson (Texans) vs. Cowboys: Over the past two weeks without teammate Nico Collins (hamstring), Hutchinson has served as the de facto No. 1 WR (27% air yard share, 33% end zone targets). His production hasn't inspired during that stretch (6-88-0 receiving, 15 targets), but now he has a golden matchup against the Cowboys, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (58.9%) and extremely injured in the back seven: LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring), CB Decobie Durant (hamstring), SS Jalen Thompson (hamstring), FS Malik Hooker (forearm) and No. 3 S P.J. Locke (foot, IR) could all be out. Additionally, the Texans are playing their third home game in four weeks, and the Cowboys have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). 

Week 4 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Josh Downs vs. Commanders & Jameson Williams at Panthers

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Josh Downs (Colts) vs. Commanders (in London): Last week without No. 1 WR Alec Pierce (heel, IR), Downs leveled up against the Texans (5-77-0 receiving, 11 targets, 60% air yard share, 100% end zone target share, 81 Utilization Score). Now he has a much easier matchup against the Commanders, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (38.8) and will likely be without their primary slot defender in S/CB Nick Cross (illness).

Jameson Williams (Lions) at Panthers: In the words of Hamlet, "If it be now, 'tis not to come; if it be not to come, it will be now; if it be not now, yet it will come: the readiness is all." At some point, Williams will go off. Why not this week? The Panthers in the back seven could be without LB Devin Lloyd (calf), CBs Mike Jackson (groin) and Jaycee Horn (quadriceps), and SS Nick Scott (ribs).

Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)