RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 4 Fantasy Football: Saquon Barkley, Ollie Gordon & More

Let's get into the Week 4 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 4 favorites and fades.

Week 4 Running Back Rankings (The Top 24)

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Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Bijan Robinson
3	Kenneth Walker
4	Derrick Henry
5	Christian McCaffrey
6	James Cook
7	Jonathan Taylor
8	Ashton Jeanty
9	Jeremiyah Love
10	Chase Brown
11	Kyren Williams
12	Saquon Barkley
13	Chuba Hubbard
14	D'Andre Swift
15	Jaylen Warren
16	Aaron Jones
17	Javonte Williams
18	Bhayshul Tuten
19	Cam Skattebo
20	Bucky Irving
21	David Montgomery
22	Omarion Hampton
23	Braelon Allen
24	Quinshon Judkins

Matchup Downgrades In My RB Rankings For Week 4: Jonathan Taylor vs. Commanders & Omarion Hampton at Chargers

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Commanders and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

Commanders: No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA (-42.8%)
Seahawks: No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.371) and SR (23.6%)

Here be dragons.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. Commanders (in London): After watching Taylor put up 120+ yards and 2 TDs in back-to-back games to open the season, I last week named Taylor a fantasy fade, and I was directionally correct (72 yards, 0 TDs on 23 carries, 3 targets), so, you know, #Oracle. As favorites of more than a FG, the Colts should be able to put up points, but the Commanders have been most vulnerable via the pass game (No. 30 in defensive dropback SR, 53.7%), so I expect the fantasy production to skew more toward QB Daniel Jones and the pass catchers than Taylor … as sick as that is to say.

Omarion Hampton (Chargers) at Seahawks: The 0-3 Chargers are yet to score even 20 points in a game. They're on the road for a second straight week. And they're without C Tyler Biadasz (knee, IR), LG Kayode Awosika (lower leg), and TEs Charlie Kolar (forearm) and David Njoku (knee, IR) to block in the run game. Hampton's production has been almost sufficient this year (No. 22 RB with 10.1 fantasy points per game, 214 yards, 2 TDs on 50 carries, 3 targets), but his underlying usage indicates that the Chargers are yet to use him as a full workhorse (54% snap rate, 68% rush share, 25% route rate, 57 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Given the matchup, I doubt his situation will improve much this week.

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 4 RB Rankings: Saquon Barkley vs. Rams & Jeremiyah Love at Giants

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the RB."

Right now, I have the Eagles projected as the No. 13 offense as a general baseline; the Cardinals, No. 15. But this week the Eagles are No. 19 in implied team total (22.0 points), and the Cards are No. 22 (21.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Rams: The 2-1 Eagles right now (in my opinion) are one of the fakest teams in football. They have a negative point differential (-14) and a horrendous market record (0-3 ATS, -100% ROI, per Action Network). This is the kind of thing that can happen when you have your … counting … seventh offensive playcaller in seven years. On top of that, this offseason the Eagles fired longtime and legendary OL coach Jeff Stoutland and brought in OC Sean Mannion, who had no play-calling experience and just two years as a coach. It's no wonder the Eagles are underwhelming. As for Barkley, we've seen better days (6.5 fantasy points per game, 180 yards, 0 TDs on 34 carries, 6 targets, 50 Utilization Score), and we probably won't see them return this week against the Rams, who are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-5.0). If you have Barkley, you're starting him in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week. You can't bench him. But at the same time … you definitely won't feel good about starting him.

Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) at Giants: In Week 3, Love's league-winning upside was unlocked with strong usage (63% snap rate, 78% rush share, 41% route rate, 91 Utilization Score) and real production (109 yards, 1 TD on 21 carries, 5 targets). But that came in a 36-30 shootout loss to the 49ers. Do we expect the Cards to score 30 points this week or the Giants to put up 36 points of their own and push the Cards to play aggressively? Nah, brah. This will be the third road game for the Cards and third home game in four weeks for the Giants, who last year had the No. 4 home-field advantage (+9.17, per NFElo). On top of that, the Giants have an amplified home edge against the Cards, who are out of division, on turf (vs. grass), and outdoors (vs. indoors). This is just a subpar spot.

Week 4 Road Dog Downgrades In My RB Rankings: Javonte Williams at Texans & Ollie Gordon at Vikings

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) at Texans: The setup is suboptimal for the Cowboys, who are playing their third away game in four weeks and have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). Williams has played well enough (15.2 fantasy points per game, 225 yards, 3 TDs on 43 carries, 12 targets, 81 Utilization Score), but the edge is against him: Outside division, QB Dak Prescott has underwhelmed across his career (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI, per Action Network). And then there's the actual matchup with the Texans, who have struggled this season … and are still No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-8.1).

Ollie Gordon (Dolphins) at Vikings: Gordon is the No. 1 waiver wire pickup this week, and for good reason. No. 1 RB De'Von Achane (knee, IR) is out, and rotational RB Jaylen Wright (foot) is uncertain, so Gordon could be the lead back in Week 4 and beyond. With Achane going down in Week 3, Gordon stepped up and assumed control of the backfield (55 yards, 1 TDs on 17 carries, 3 targets, 80 Utilization Score). All that said … I can't imagine actually starting Gordon against the Vikings, who are No. 2 in defensive rush EPA (-0.359), SR (27.1%), and DVOA (-42.5%). On top of that, this is the third road game in four weeks for the Dolphins, who are granting a maximized home-field advantage to the Vikings because they're out of division/conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors).

Offensive Injury Downgrades In My Week 4 RB Rankings: Kaleb Johnson at Buccaneers & Quinshon Judkins vs. Steelers

Here are a couple RBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Kaleb Johnson (Packers) at Buccaneers: The Packers have a three-day rest advantage off Thursday Night Football, but that's outweighed by the fact that this is their third game in four weeks on the road, where QB Jordan Love has underperformed expectations (11-18-1 ATS, -26.6% ROI), especially since last year (2-9 ATS, -65.6% ROI). Plus, the Bucs are at home for their third straight game. Last week, Johnson seemed to have overtaken MarShawn Lloyd for the temporary No. 1 RB job (35% snap rate, 50% rush share, 27% route rate) … but he still had almost no production (16 yards, 0 TDs on 4 carries, 3 targets), and the Packers could be without three OL starters: LG Aaron Banks (toe), RG Jacob Monk (undisclosed), and RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee). Not great.

Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs. Steelers: The Browns are home for a second straight week and have actually put up 20+ points in back-to-back games under new HC Todd Monken … but he's in a tough spot as a first-year coach on a short week, and home-field advantage for the Browns is greatly diminished because the Steelers are in division and play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. On top of that, there's nothing special about Judkins' production and usage (7.4 fantasy points per game, 177 yards, 0 TDs on 42 carries, 9 targets, 66 Utilization Score), and the Browns will be without the entire right side of their OL: C Elgton Jenkins (concussion), RG Teven Jenkins (back), and RT Tytus Howard (knee).

Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.