TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 4 Fantasy Football: Tucker Kraft & More Of Freedman's Fades

TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 4 Fantasy Football: Tucker Kraft & More Of Freedman's Fades

Matthew Freedman runs through six downgrades in his TE rankings for Week 4 fantasy football.

Published

Let's get into the Week 4 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

  • Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
  • Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
  • Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 4 favorites and fades.

TE Rankings For Week 4 Fantasy Football

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RankPlayer
1Brock Bowers
2Trey McBride
3George Kittle
4Travis Kelce
5Dalton Kincaid
6Sam LaPorta
7Tyler Warren
8Juwan Johnson
9Tucker Kraft
10Harold Fannin
11Kenyon Sadiq
12Isaiah Likely
13Colston Loveland
14Dalton Schultz
15Darren Waller

Week 4 Matchup Downgrades In My TE Rankings: Mark Andrews vs. Titans & Dalton Kincaid vs. Patriots

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Patriots and Titans are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

  • Titans: No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (-72.0%)
  • Patriots: No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (4.5)

Here be dragons.

Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Titans: I have RB Derrick Henry and WR Zay Flowers as favorites this week … which is, I suppose, another way of saying I don't expect much from Andrews, who hasn't done much to speak of this season anyway (6.2 fantasy points per game, 13-122-0 receiving, 18 targets, 68 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Plus, the Ravens could be weary from the road (4,808 travel miles this week, 10,653 over the past month), and Andrews might be called upon to stay in and block a little more than usual given that LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) is injured and Cs Jovaughn Gwyn (ankle) and Ethan Pocic (knee) are both out.

Dalton Kincaid (Bills) vs. Patriots: QB Josh Allen (knee) is technically uncertain to play, but I expect him to suit up given that 1) he completed the game this past week and 2) the Bills still have the slate's highest total (27.5 points). The setup for Kincaid is good: This is the third road game in four weeks for the Pats, and they've accumulated considerably more travel miles than the Bills (7,347 vs. 2,580 for the season). Plus, SS Craig Woodson (shoulder) might be out. But even if Allen plays, he might be hindered, and Kincaid exhibited last week (2.8 fantasy points, 2-38-0 receiving, 3 targets) the fragility that accompanies his limited playing time (68% route rate).


Scoring Downgrades In My Week 4 TE Rankings: Jake Ferguson at Texans & Tucker Kraft at Buccaneers

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the TEs."

Right now, I have the Cowboys projected as the No. 3 offense as a general baseline; the Packers, No. 17. But this week the Cowboys are No. 18 in implied team total (22.5 points), and the Packers are No. 22 (21.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) at Texans: The setup is suboptimal for the Cowboys, who are playing their third away game in four weeks and have traveled extensively to start the year (13,025 miles, more than any other team except the Australia-laden 49ers and Rams). On top of that, Ferguson has been disgustingly reliant on TDs for his production (9.2 fantasy points per game, 9-72-3 receiving, 11 targets, 7% air yard share, 25% endzone target share), and eventually he'll fail to hit paydirt. Plus, QB Dak Prescott has underwhelmed outside the division across his career (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI, per Action Network), so this feels like a poor spot for Ferguson's TD luck to persist. I wouldn't blame someone for benching Ferguson in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Tucker Kraft (Packers) at Buccaneers: In his three games since returning from last year's season-ending ACL tear, Kraft has not looked nearly as explosive (10.1 yards per target in 2023-25 vs. 6.2 in 2026). As a result, his overall production has bordered on putrid (5.0 fantasy points per game, 9-106-0 receiving, 17 targets, 57 Utilization Score). The Packers have a three-day rest advantage off Thursday Night Football … but that's outweighed by the fact that this is their third game in four weeks on the road, where QB Jordan Love has underperformed expectations (11-18-1 ATS, -26.6% ROI), especially since last year (2-9 ATS, -65.6% ROI). Kraft has a tough matchup against Pro Bowl FS Antoine Winfield, and he might block more than usual given that the Packers could be without three OL starters: LG Aaron Banks (toe), RG Jacob Monk (undisclosed), and RT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee). I doubt he breaks out of his funk this week.


Week 4 Offensive Injury Downgrades In The TE Rankings: Colston Loveland vs. Jets & Harold Fannin vs. Steelers

Here are a couple of TEs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Colston Loveland (Bears) vs. Jets: On the one hand, Loveland has been terrible this season (2.0 fantasy points per game, 5-34-0 receiving, 9 targets). On the other hand, he was his best last week (5.1 points, 4-31-0 receiving, 4 targets). And yet … still terrible. He's No. 5 on the team in target share (9%) and air yards (7%). Right now, he's simply not an important part of this offense, which might once again be without No. 1 QB Caleb Williams (hamstring), and the matchup isn't friendly: The Jets are No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (5.3).

Harold Fannin (Browns) vs. Steelers: The Browns are home for a second straight week and have actually put up 20+ points in back-to-back games under new HC Todd Monken … but he's in a tough spot as a first-year coach on a short week, and home-field advantage for the Browns is greatly diminished because the Steelers are in the division and play on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. Fannin has been good this year (10.5 fantasy points per game, 14-126-2 receiving, 18 targets, 82 Utilization Score), but the Browns offense could struggle mightily this week without the entire right side of the OL: C Elgton Jenkins (concussion), RG Teven Jenkins (back), and RT Tytus Howard (knee) are all questionable.


Notes

Week 4 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

  • Tue AM: Publish
  • Thu AM: Refresh
  • Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
  • Sat PM: Update
  • Sun AM: Revise
  • Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
  • Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
  • Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Mark Andrews
    MarkAndrews
    TEBALBAL
    PPG
    6.2
    Proj
    8.5
  2. Dalton Kincaid
    DaltonKincaid
    TEBUFBUF
    PPG
    12.4
    Proj
    9.9
  3. Jake Ferguson
    JakeFerguson
    TEDALDAL
    PPG
    9.2
    Proj
    6.3
  4. Tucker Kraft
    TuckerKraftQ
    TEGBGB
    PPG
    5.0
    Proj
    9.1

Published