Upgrades For Week 10 Wide Receiver Rankings: Ryan Flournoy, Tetairoa McMillan & More

Let's get into the Week 10 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

To access all my fantasy football rankings, my weekly written content, our Fantasy HQ League Hub, our weekly player projections, and my personal NFL Game Model, use the promo code FREEDMAN for a 10% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 10 Wide Receiver Rankings

Rank	Player
1	CeeDee Lamb
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
3	Ja'Marr Chase
4	Amon-Ra St. Brown
5	Tee Higgins
6	Malik Nabers
7	Chris Olave
8	Parker Washington
9	Christian Watson
10	Nico Collins
11	Matthew Golden
12	Drake London
13	Justin Jefferson
14	Zay Flowers
15	Tetairoa McMillan
16	Rashee Rice
17	Garrett Wilson
18	Jameson Williams
19	DJ Moore
20	Jalen Coker
21	KC Concepcion
22	Stefon Diggs
23	Denzel Boston
24	Carnell Tate
25	DK Metcalf
26	Omar Cooper
27	DeMario Douglas
28	Deebo Samuel
29	Caleb Douglas
30	Germie Bernard
31	George Pickens
32	Tank Dell
33	Adonai Mitchell
34	Jakobi Meyers
35	Ryan Flournoy
36	Jordan Watkins

Week 10 Matchup Upgrades: Jakobi Meyers at Titans & Tutu Atwell at Cardinals

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Titans and Cardinals are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.

Titans: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+6.0)
Cardinals: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.284)

Bang a gong.

Jakobi Meyers (Jaguars) at Titans: Meyers has been inconsistent week to week this season (11.2, 3.3, 15.9, 4.8, 4.7, 10.8, 3.4 and 8.5 fantasy points). But since the Week 7 bye, he and No. 1 WR Parker Washington have had equal usage (both have a 49 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and Meyers has had the superior underlying marks (29% air yard share, 33% end-zone target share vs. 19%, 0%). The setup isn't perfect: The Titans are coming off the bye, and this is the second straight road game for the Jags and their fifth away in seven weeks. But the Jags have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, they're week-best -10.5 favorites, and HC Liam Coen has crushed as a favorite (11-4 ATS, 41.3% ROI, per Action Network). In two games with the Jags against the Titans last year, Meyers was productive (12.6 fantasy points per game, 11-134-1 receiving, 12 targets), and the Titans could be without CB Marcus Harris (ankle), and they just traded away SS Amani Hooker.

Tutu Atwell (Rams) at Cardinals: No. 1 WR Puka Nacua (knee) is doubtful after exiting last week. No. 2 WR Davante Adams (hamstring, IR) is out, and reserve WR Jordan Whittington (back) is uncertain. That means the top WR for the Rams in this game might be Atwell, who has at least been involved in the offense as the No. 2 WR over the past two weeks (61% route rate, 24% air yard share, 38 Utilization Score). HC Sean McVay has historically done well in division (35-24-1 ATS, 14.4% ROI) and on the road (49-36-2 ATS, 11.8% ROI). The Rams are on their third road game in four weeks, but the Cards have had the No. 31 HFA over the past 16 games (-7.91, per NFElo).

Week 10 Scoring Upgrades: Jordan Watkins at Cowboys & Jameson Williams vs. Patriots

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WRs."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (30.0 points); the Lions, No. 4 (27.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Jordan Watkins (49ers) at Cowboys: In two games without WRs Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) since Week 7, Watkins has served as the team's No. 1 WR (78% route rate, 33% air yard share, 40% end-zone target share, 65 Utilization Score) and acquitted himself well (11.9 fantasy points per game, 7-142-1 receiving, 10 targets). Although he'll now need to deal with recently acquired veteran Keenan Allen, the younger Watkins should be able to keep his vertical role in the offense, which makes him valuable against the Cowboys, who are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA (25.3%). The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). But this game has the slate's highest total (55.5), and the Cowboys could be without CB Joey Porter (ankle) on top of SS P.J. Locke (concussion).

Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Patriots (in Munich): Williams did almost nothing last week (4.5 fantasy points, 1-31-0 receiving, 2 targets with 1-9-0 rushing), but in three games since the Week 6 bye, his usage has been highly attractive (89% route rate, 43% air yard share, 60% end-zone target share). The Lions might be without C Cade Mays (ankle), but at least the Lions are -2.5 favorites, and throughout his career Williams has been better as a favorite (9.9 fantasy points per game vs. 7.4 otherwise). Plus, the Patriots are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+5.4), and they could be without CBs Carlton Davis (knee) and Charles Woods (hamstring).

Week 10 Indoors Upgrades: Tetairoa McMillan at Saints & Caleb Douglas at Colts

In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) at Saints: McMillan's production has underwhelmed since the Week 5 bye (10.0 fantasy points per game, 20-240-1 receiving, 32 targets), but he has at least played well ahead of No. 2 WR Jalen Coker in that span (24% target share, 30% air yard share, 29% end-zone target share, 71 Utilization Score vs. 19%, 28%, 14%, 53). The Saints are on their second straight home game, and this is their sixth week of the past eight not on the road, but they have a diminished HFA against the Panthers because they play in division on a similar turf surface, and they've had the No. 30 HFA over the past five years (-1.05). Across his young career, McMillan has been an indoors producer (14.5 fantasy points per game vs. 10.6 outdoors), and the Saints are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (24.8%). Plus, divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-648-37 ATS, 4.3% ROI).

Caleb Douglas (Dolphins) at Colts: Since returning from injury following the Week 6 bye, the rookie Douglas has been the team's No. 1 WR both in terms of production (12.1 fantasy points per game, 12-183-2 receiving, 17 targets) and usage (83% route rate, 41% air yard share, 50% end-zone target share). Now without QB Malik Willis (quad, IR), the Dolphins are +3.5 road dogs, and the Colts have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). But the Colts have had the No. 29 HFA over the past 16 games (-5.85), and on defense they are now without DT DeForest Buckner (traded) and could be without CB Justin Walley (knee) and SS A.J. Haulcy (ankle).

Week 10 Injury Upgrades: Ryan Flournoy vs. 49ers & DeMario Douglas vs. Lions

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.

Ryan Flournoy (Cowboys) vs. 49ers: After a slow start in Weeks 1-4 (4.2 fantasy points per game, 13-104-0 receiving, 23 targets), Flournoy has been productive since Week 5 (10.2 fantasy points per game, 19-291-2 receiving, 24 targets). With No. 2 WR George Pickens (hamstring) out last week, he ran a route on every dropback (100% route rate), and now Pickens, WRs Jonathan Mingo (ankle) and KaVontae Turpin (ribs), and TE Luke Schoonmaker (groin) are uncertain, and TE Jake Ferguson (knee) is out. The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors), and this game has the slate's highest total (55.5). Plus, the 49ers could be without CBs Renardo Green (back) and Deommodore Lenoir (foot) on top of CB Nate Hobbs (groin, IR). If desperate, I'd consider starting Flournoy in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

DeMario Douglas (Patriots) vs. Lions (in Munich): With No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee) out the past two weeks, Douglas has seen a boost in both production (13.9 fantasy points per game, 8-178-1 receiving, 12 targets) and usage (84% route rate, 22% target share, 26% air yard share), and Brown might miss one more game. The Pats are +2.5 dogs for an early 9:30 am ET kickoff in Munich, and throughout his career Douglas has been worse as an underdog (5.7 fantasy points per game vs. 7.9 otherwise). But the Lions are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (27.5%), and they might not have CB D.J. Reed (hip) on top of FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP).

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.