Upgrades For Week 10 Running Back Rankings: Fire Up Chuba Hubbard

Let's get into the Week 10 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 10 favorites and fades.

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Week 10 Running Back Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Kenneth Walker
2	Jahmyr Gibbs
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	James Cook
5	Bijan Robinson
6	Chuba Hubbard
7	Jaylen Warren
8	Jonathan Taylor
9	Javonte Williams
10	Kyren Williams
11	Derrick Henry
12	Bhayshul Tuten
13	Ollie Gordon
14	Breece Hall
15	Blake Corum
16	Chase Brown
17	Tony Pollard
18	Jo'quavioius Marks
19	Zach Charbonnet
20	Audric Estime
21	Ashton Jeanty
22	Cam Skattebo
23	Alvin Kamara
24	Quinshon Judkins

Week 10 Matchup Upgrades: Chuba Hubbard at Saints & Ollie Gordon at Colts

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Saints and Colts are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

Saints: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+6.1)
Colts: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (-0.020)

Bang a gong.

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) at Saints: Hubbard without No. 2 RB Jonathon Brooks (abdomen, IR) has been a workhorse since Week 3 (16.3 fantasy points per game, 635 yards, 4 TDs on 112 carries, 26 targets, 90 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), and last week he had elite usage (92% snap rate, 84% rush share, 74% route rate). The Panthers might be without LG Damien Lewis (knee) on top of LT Ikem Ekwonu (knee, PUP) and RT Taylor Moton (lower leg, IR). Plus, the Saints are on their second straight home game, and this is their sixth week of the past eight not on the road. But the Saints have had the No. 30 HFA over the past five years (-1.05, per NFElo), and it's diminished against the Panthers because they play in division on a similar turf surface. Finally, divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-648-37 ATS, 4.3% ROI, per Action Network).

Ollie Gordon (Dolphins) at Colts: Since No. 1 RB De'Von Achane (knee, IR) went down in Week 3, Gordon has been the lead back (12.6 fantasy points per game, 479 yards, 4 TDs on 104 carries, 10 targets), and he could see extra work this week if RB Jaylen Wright (quadriceps) remains out. The Dolphins are +3.5 road dogs now that QB Malik Willis (quad, IR) is out, and the Colts have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). But on defense, the Colts are now without DT DeForest Buckner (traded), and they could additionally be without four starters in LBs Jaylon Carlies (neck) and Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee), CB Justin Walley (knee) and SS A.J. Haulcy (ankle).

Week 10 Scoring Upgrades: Christian McCaffrey at Cowboys & Bhayshul Tuten at Titans

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (30.0 points); the Jaguars, No. 3 (28.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers) at Cowboys: Last week, McCaffrey delivered off the bye (21.7 fantasy points, 87 yards, 2 TDs on 18 carries, 3 targets), and for the season, he has been as dependable as ever (18.6 fantasy points per game, 727 yards, 10 TDs on 102 carries, 45 targets, 89 Utilization Score). The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). But this game has the slate's highest total (55.5), McCaffrey's usage should stay strong if WRs Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring) remain out, and the Cowboys are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+5.9). Plus, they could be without EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku (ankle) and LB DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) on top of SS P.J. Locke (concussion).

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) at Titans: Tuten entered last week with an ankle/foot injury, and so he played only sparingly in a 33-10 win (36% snap rate, 41% rush share, 23% route rate), but he should resume his usual workload this week with three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and since the Week 7 bye, he has still been electric (18.9 fantasy points per game, 188 yards, 3 TDs on 28 carries, 2 targets). The Titans are coming off the bye, and this is the second straight road game for the Jags and their fifth away in seven weeks. But the Jags are week-best -10.5 favorites, HC Liam Coen has crushed as a favorite (11-4 ATS, 41.3% ROI), and the Titans are No. 29 in defensive rush DVOA (3.0%).

Week 10 Home Favorite Upgrades: Derrick Henry vs. Chargers & Audric Estimé vs. Panthers

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Chargers: Henry has disappointed since QB Lamar Jackson (thumb, IR) went down in Week 4 (9.8 fantasy points per game, 346 yards, 2 TDs on 86 carries, 7 targets), and over the past 16 games, the Ravens have had the league's worst HFA (-13.23). But now with recently acquired QB Jacoby Brissett, the Ravens are -5.5 favorites, they're on their third home game in four weeks, and they at least have an amplified HFA because the Chargers are outside division, on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). Plus, the Ravens have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and the Chargers could be without DT Justin Eboigbe (ankle) on top of LB Denzel Perryman (undisclosed, IR) and SS Derwin James (hamstring, IR).

Audric Estimé (Saints) vs. Panthers: Having just been claimed off waivers, Estimé led the Saints backfield last week in both production (14.2 fantasy points, 77 yards, 1 TD on 15 carries, 1 target) and usage (49% snap rate, 60% rush share, 50% goal-line rush share, 28% route rate), and he could do so again this week without No. 1 RB Travis Etienne (hamstring, IR). The Saints have had the No. 30 HFA over the past five years (-1.05, per NFElo), and it's diminished against the Panthers because they play in division on a similar turf surface, but this is still the second straight home game for the Saints and their sixth week of the past eight not on the road. They might be without C Erik McCoy (biceps), but the Panthers are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.1), and they could miss EDGE Jaelan Phillips (hamstring). If desperate, I'd consider starting Estimé in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 10 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Woody Marks at Browns & Devin Singletary vs. Commanders

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Woody Marks (Texans) at Browns: With No. 1 RB David Montgomery (groin) out since exiting Week 5, Marks has controlled the backfield (78% snap rate, 69% rush share, 61% route rate, 74 Utilization Score), even though his production hasn't been great (8.5 fantasy points per game, 236 yards, 0 TDs on 52 carries, 8 targets). The Texans are on their second straight road game, the Browns have the No. 5 HFA over the past five years (+5.12), and it's amplified because they're outside division, on grass (vs. turf) and outdoors (vs. indoors). But the Texans are -4.5 favorites, and the Browns are No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (-0.032) and could be without DT Maliek Collins (elbow).

Devin Singletary (Giants) vs. Commanders: With No. 1 RB Cam Skattebo (hamstring) out last week, Singletary looked like a backup (4.9 fantasy points, 39 yards, 0 TDs on 21 carries, 3 targets), but he served as a full-on workhorse (92% snap rate, 78% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 75% route rate, 75 Utilization Score). Given that the Giants play on Thursday Night Football, Skattebo is uncertain to be ready for the game, so Singletary might get another shot to start. The Giants are -2.5 home favorites, and throughout his career Singletary has been better as a home favorite (9.5 fantasy points per game vs. 7.9 otherwise). The Commanders are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (45.4%) and are without DTs Javon Kinlaw (knee, IR) and Daron Payne (foot, IR).

Notes

Week 10 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bears, Broncos, Eagles, and Buccaneers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.