Guillotine Leagues™️ Cheat Sheet For Week 5: Jameis Winston Can Help You Surive

It’s on to Week 5, though there’s a wrench thrown into the mix. Bye weeks have entered into our weekly strategy session. That’s right, you Kenneth Walker managers have to find a fill-in for your point-producing machine for a week. And those who struck gold and have been riding Bryce Young as a late-round QB, tell us how it feels to slot in a backup for a week. The rub is, unlike in redraft when you know they’ll be coming back to your starting lineup, there’s no guarantee that those players will be there, because the chop cannot be taken for granted.

We want more, so to help you to keep surviving the chop in Guillotine Leagues™️, Kendall Valenzuela, Matthew Freedman and Pete Overzet got together for a round table discussion with several player recommendations for this week. Also, make sure to consult our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections when setting your lineup.

Week 5 Cheat Sheet for Guillotine Leagues

Who do you like as a strong "RB floor play" in Week 5?

Freedman: D'Andre Swift (Bears) at Packers

In Week 4, No. 2 RB Kyle Monangai markedly outplayed Swift (27.5 fantasy points vs. 6.4; 73 Utilization Score vs. 49, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). And for the season, Swift is barely outproducing his teammate (14.6 fantasy points per game, 395 yards, 3 TDs on 69 carries, 11 targets vs. 14.2 fantasy points per game, 363 yards, 3 TDs on 60 carries, 5 targets). But Monangai (thumb) now has an injury, so Swift could see an expanded role in Week 5, and even if he doesn't, he's still the No. 1 RB in an offense that has averaged 25.0 points over the past two games despite missing its QB. The Bears have cut home-field advantage for the Packers down to the core because they're playing in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and the Packers will now be without playmaking LB Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles).

Via my Week 5 RB Favorites

Kendall: Aaron Jones vs. Saints

This feels like an easy answer for as long as Jordan Mason is out, but Jones has been operating as the RB1 for the Vikings and it just isn't going to stop this weekend in a pretty solid matchup. First off, the Saints are No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (19.6%). Add on the fact that Jones has 60 carries over the past three weeks and has 10+ fantasy points since the start of the season and we're cooking here. This New Orleans defense allows the most FPPG on planned rushing plays, according to ESPN, so sign me up for another solid Jones start.

Pete: Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Colts

Rico Dowdle dislocated his same toe twice–which is honestly impressive, TBH–and Warren has turned into a full-blown bell cow in his absence (18.1 PPG with a 91 Utilization Score). The floor and ceiling are both awesome here vs. the Colts.

Who do you like as a strong "WR floor play" in Week 5?

Freedman: Michael Wilson (Cardinals) vs. Lions

Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals offense has come alive (54 points), and in that span Wilson has resumed his role as the team's No. 1 WR (16.7 fantasy points per game, 18-184-1 receiving, 30 targets, 100 Utilization Score). Now, he has a pristine matchup at home indoors against the Lions, who are on their third away game in four weeks and have an enhanced road disadvantage because they're outside the division and on grass (vs. turf). Additionally, they're without SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR).

Via my Week 5 WR Favorites

Kendall: Jameson Williams vs. Cardinals

I don't have many shares of Williams, but in leagues that I do I am looking forward to starting him this weekend against Detroit. Williams is going to try and build off his best fantasy performance so far this season in a 16.2 fantasy-point performance against the Panthers against Arizona this week. The Cardinals aren't the scariest defense, they're allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. He's a boom-or-bust player, but hopefully we get another boom this weekend.

Pete: Carnell Tate (Texans) at Houston

I think most people would assume Tate doesn’t have a floor, but it’s more so the ceiling that I worry about in an offense with a low expectation for TDs each week. Tate’s Utilization Score, though, spiked to 93 in Week 4 as he totaled 21.5 points and now he gets a Texans pass funnel that just allowed CeeDee Lamb to haul in 17 of 21 targets.

Which "stud" are you considering benching in Week 5?

Freedman: Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs. Lions

This is the fourth time this year I've highlighted Love as a fantasy fade. So far, no regrets (10.9 fantasy points per game, 259 yards, 2 TDs on 55 carries, 13 targets, 64 Utilization Score). Not only is he still splitting too much of the work with No. 2 RB Tyler Allgeier (50 Utilization Score), but Love (ankle) is now also dealing with an injury, and his OL situation is subpar: LT Paris Johnson Jr. (biceps) is out, and RG Isaiah Adams (ankle) and RT Jonah Williams (shoulder) are uncertain. His setup is good: The Lions are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (2.6%), on their third away game in four weeks, and disadvantaged on the road because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). But given his light workload and ravaged OL, the overall situation is suspect.

Via my Week 5 RB Fades

Kendall: Tucker Kraft vs. Bears

It's rivalry week, and while the Bears are road favorites against the Packers for the first time since 2006, there are some other not-so-pretty stats we have to break down going against Green Bay. Tucker Kraft is a stud I am nervous about this week—the Bears have allowed only 6.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. On top of that? They also only allow 6.3 yards per attempt to the position. Woof.

Pete: Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. Vikings

Look, I know Kamara isn’t a “stud,” but I also know that you can’t afford to actually sit any studs in Guillotine formats where depth is non-existent for another few weeks. Still, it’s worth noting that Kamara is coming off a nice game where he scored 2 TDs, but now he has the toughest run defense in the entire league. The Vikings allow only 14.7 FPPG and .3 TDs per game to opposing RBs.

Who's the one guy who might not have a solid floor, but who makes you say, "Screw it, I'm starting him anyway"?

Freedman: Jameis Winston (Giants) at Commanders

In Week 3, Winston disappointed in his first start of the season (6.1 points, 118 yards passing, 0 TDs, 0 INTs with 2-14-0 rushing), but in Week 4 he looked like the YOLO merchant we know and mostly love (20 points, 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). The Commanders have a notable travel disadvantage coming off the London game (3,659 miles this week), and Giants HC John Harbaugh has been strong as a visitor throughout his career (90-65-6 ATS, 13.0% ROI, per Action Network). In the secondary, the Commanders are without CB Trey Amos (ankle, IR), and they could additionally be without S/CB Nick Cross (illness) and SS Jeremy Reaves (finger).

Via my Week 5 QB Favorites

Kendall: Kyle Monangai vs. Packers

I want everyone to know that I almost wrote up Marvin Harrison Jr. but figured I would be booed out of writing this article every week so I stopped myself. I think for this I'll say Monnangai. I don't think he's taking over the backfield completely or anything, but the Packers have allowed 113.8 rush yards per game, so I think—if his thumb is OK—that you can get by starting him alongside D'Andre Swift for another week.

Pete: TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) vs. Raiders

Rhamondre Stevenson is hurt and the Raiders are a run funnel (4th biggest rush yards boost). The Hendo floor is always shaky, but I would happily roll the dice here.

Which player do you think will have the highest "chop rate" in Week 5?

Freedman: Jalen Hurts (Eagles) vs. Jaguars (in London)

The Eagles are 2-2, but they're one of the fakest teams in football. They have a negative point differential (-18) and a horrendous market record (0-4 ATS, -100% ROI). In my opinion, it all starts with Hurts, who hasn't been terrible this year (17.5 fantasy points per game, 713 yards passing, 7 TDs, 3 INTs with 21-105-1 rushing), but also hasn't been anything close to a top-tier QB. And in all fairness to him, this is the kind of thing that can happen when you have your … counting … seventh offensive playcaller in seven years. On top of that, this offseason the Eagles fired longtime and legendary OL coach Jeff Stoutland and brought in OC Sean Mannion, who had no playcalling experience and just two years as a coach. And now Hurts could be without five starters in RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring), WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), TE Dallas Goedert (knee), RT Lane Johnson (retired) and LG Landon Dickerson (knee, IR). The Jags could be without two secondary starters in CB Montaric Brown (hamstring) and FS Eric Murray (concussion) … but I'm skeptical that will even matter. This week the Eagles are No. 28 in implied team total (18.5). That's terrible.

Via my Week 5 QB Fades

Kendall: James Cook vs. Rams

Listen, you have to start him, but a high James Cook chop rate won't surprise me. Josh Allen is the guy who scores for this team regularly, and the Rams haven't allowed a touchdown or 15+ fantasy points to a running back so far this season.

Pete: Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) vs. bye

The gravy train stops here, KW3 managers!