Upgrades for Week 5 Quarterback Rankings: Ready For The Jameis Winston Experience

Let's get into the Week 5 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 5 favorites and fades.

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Week 5 Quarterback Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Josh Allen
2	Jared Goff
3	Matthew Stafford
4	Dak Prescott
5	Trevor Lawrence
6	Joe Burrow
7	Brock Purdy
8	Drake Maye
9	Jacoby Brissett
10	Lamar Jackson
11	Jordan Love
12	Tyler Shough
13	Jalen Hurts
14	Kyler Murray
15	Jayden Daniels
16	Jameis Winston
17	Bo Nix
18	Sam Darnold
19	Kirk Cousins
20	Geno Smith

Week 5 Matchup Upgrades: Jacoby Brissett vs. Lions & Jameis Winston at Commanders

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Lions and Commanders are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+7.8)
Commanders: No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (24.8)

Bang a gong.

Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) vs. Lions: Brissett hasn't been prolific this season, but he has been functionally productive (15.8 fantasy points per game, 818 yards passing, 6 TDs, 4 INTs with 15-43-1 rushing), and now he has a pristine matchup at home indoors against the Lions, who are on their third away game in four weeks and have an enhanced road disadvantage because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). Additionally, they're without SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR). One potential overlooked aspect of Brissett's game is his rushing usage: This year he's a contributor (8% designed rush share, 40% goal-line rush share, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). If you're a sicko (and we both know you are), you might be able to get away with starting Brissett in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Jameis Winston (Giants) at Commanders: In Week 3, Winston disappointed in his first start of the season (6.1 points, 118 yards passing, 0 TDs, 0 INTs with 2-14-0 rushing), but in Week 4 he looked like the YOLO merchant we know and mostly love (20 points, 250 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs). The Commanders have a notable travel advantage coming off the London game (3,659 miles this week), and Giants HC John Harbaugh has been strong as a visitor throughout his career (90-65-6 ATS, 13.0% ROI, per Action Network). In the secondary, the Commanders are without CB Trey Amos (ankle, IR), and they could additionally be without S/CB Nick Cross (illness) and SS Jeremy Reaves (finger).

Week 5 Scoring Upgrades: Jared Goff at Cardinals & Dak Prescott vs. Buccaneers

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week, the Lions are No. 1 in implied team total (29.5 points); the Cowboys, No. 3 (28.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Jared Goff (Lions) at Cardinals: Goff has been the best version of himself this season (21.5 fantasy points per game, 1,214 yards passing, 9 TDs, 0 INTs with 9-15-0 rushing), and now he faces the Cardinals, who are No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.346) and without No. 1 CB Will Johnson (neck, IR) and maybe FS Andrew Wingard (knee). I mentioned earlier in the piece that the Lions are on their third away game in four weeks and have a road disadvantage because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). That's all true … but what matters most for them is this: Goff is indoors, where he tends to shine (48-28-2 ATS, 20.6% ROI). And it doesn't hurt that he has owned the Cards throughout his career (8-1 ATS, 67.6% ROI).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) vs. Buccaneers: The setup isn't perfect for Prescott. The Cowboys have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (11,873 miles), and outside division Prescott has underperformed (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI). But he's at home, where the Cowboys have a boosted advantage against the Bucs, who are outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). I expect Dak to look like himself (20.6 fantasy points per game, 1,065 yards passing, 8 TDs, 1 INT with 12-66-0 rushing) against the Bucs, who could be down two key starters in EDGE Rueben Bain (groin) and FS Antoine Winfield (ribs).

Week 5 Indoors Upgrades: Josh Allen at Rams & Michael Penix vs. Ravens

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Josh Allen (Bills) at Rams: There are several factors going against Allen. First of all, the Rams defense is good: It's No. 3 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.091). Second, the Bills are traveling across the country for a primetime game well outside their standard 1 pm ET kickoff window. Third, No. 1 WR DJ Moore (shoulder) might be out. Fourth, the Rams have a fully boosted home-field advantage against the Bills, who are outside the division and conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). But there are still reasons to like Allen. First, he has easily been the league's most productive QB this season (28.8 fantasy points per game, 1,039 yards passing, 6 TDs, 3 INTs with 33-118-7 rushing). Second, the Bills are probably still fresh after playing three straight home games. Third, Allen has been strong historically off a loss (20-14-2 ATS, 12.2% ROI). Fourth, Allen is a beast indoors (11-5-1 ATS, 30.1% ROI). And finally, the Rams are without EDGE Myles Garrett (knee, IR) and might also be without DT Aaron Donald (back) and CB Jaylen Watson (shoulder).

Michael Penix (Falcons) vs. Ravens: The Falcons are on a one-day deficit coming off Monday Night Football, but Penix has looked great through two games (73.3% completion rate, 10.5 AY/A). The Ravens could be without EDGE Trey Hendrickson (finger) and CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), and they have traveled significantly over the past month because of the Brazil game (10,711 miles). Plus, the Falcons have a fully amplified home-field advantage against the Ravens, who are outside the division and conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). The setup is good.

Week 5 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Trevor Lawrence vs. Eagles & Sam Darnold vs. 49ers

Here are a couple QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) vs. Eagles (in London): Lawrence has been more surgically efficient (69.2% completion rate, 8.8 AY/A) than fantastically effective this year (16.8 fantasy points per game, 843 yards passing, 8 TDs, 2 INTs with 11-34-0 rushing), but he certainly has the potential to enjoy a big performance this week. The Jags have a theoretical travel edge in that they play in London often, and the Eagles could be without four defensive starters in EDGE Jonathan Greenard (ankle), LB Zack Baun (concussion), CB Quinyon Mitchell (knee), and SS Marcus Epps (groin).

Sam Darnold (Seahawks) vs. 49ers: Darnold has been productive in his two full outings this year (22.0 fantasy points per game, 547 yards passing, 6 TDs, 3 INTs with 4-11-0 rushing), and the 49ers are dealing with their usual assortment of defensive injuries. They're already without EDGEs Mykel Williams (knee, PUP) and Sam Okuayinonu (foot, IR), DTs Alfred Collins and C.J. West (knee, IR), and CB Nate Hobbs (groin, IR), and they could be down two more starters in EDGE Nick Bosa (calf) and SS Marques Sigle (ankle). Sammy Smash Time.

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.