Upgrades For Week 5 Running Back Rankings: Kyren Williams Still Elite

Let's get into the Week 5 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 5 favorites and fades.

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Week 5 Running Back Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Jonathan Taylor
3	Bijan Robinson
5	Derrick Henry
6	Kyren Williams
7	Chase Brown
8	Christian McCaffrey
9	James Cook
10	Jaylen Warren
11	Ashton Jeanty
12	Javonte Williams
13	Jeremiyah Love
14	D'Andre Swift
15	Aaron Jones
16	Bhayshul Tuten
17	Quinshon Judkins
18	Cam Skattebo
19	Emanuel Wilson
20	Kyle Monangai
21	Braelon Allen
22	Bucky Irving
23	Omarion Hampton
24	Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Week 5 Matchup Upgrades: D'Andre Swift at Packers & Keaton Mitchell vs. Broncos

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Broncos and Packers are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for RBs.

Packers: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+9.7)
Broncos: No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.058)

Bang a gong.

D'Andre Swift (Bears) at Packers: In Week 4, No. 2 RB Kyle Monangai markedly outplayed Swift (27.5 fantasy points vs. 6.4; 73 Utilization Score vs. 49, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). And for the season, Swift is barely outproducing his teammate (14.6 fantasy points per game, 395 yards, 3 TDs on 69 carries, 11 targets vs. 14.2 fantasy points per game, 363 yards, 3 TDs on 60 carries, 5 targets). But Monangai (thumb) now has an injury, so Swift could see an expanded role in Week 5, and even if he doesn't, he's still the No. 1 RB in an offense that has averaged 25.0 points over the past two games despite missing its QB. The Bears have cut home-field advantage for the Packers down to the core because they're playing in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and the Packers will now be without playmaking LB Edgerrin Cooper (Achilles).

Keaton Mitchell (Chargers) vs. Broncos: The offensive situation is terrible for the Chargers. LT Rashawn Slater (ankle), RT Joe Alt (neck), LG Kayode Awosika (lower leg) and backup LG Trevor Penning (head) are all uncertain … and C Tyler Biadasz (knee, IR) has been out since before the season started. Additionally, TE David Njoku (lower leg, IR) is out and TE Charlie Kolar (forearm) is questionable. The run game for the Chargers could struggle without all those blockers. Additionally, No. 1 WR Ladd McConkey (foot) exited last week with an injury. Life could be hard for the underdog Chargers … but all that makes me intrigued by Mitchell, who might function better than No. 1 RB Omarion Hampton behind a broken OL, and might see extra receiving work without McConkey. Also, he has outproduced Hampton on more usage in the team's two most recent games as dogs (10.5 points per game, 110 yards, 1 TD on 18 carries, 9 targets, 59 Utilization Score vs. 9.0 points per game, 109 yards, 1 TD on 24 carries, 3 targets, 45 Utilization Score). For those who still hold hope, it probably doesn't hurt that QB Justin Herbert historically does well in division (22-10-1 ATS, 31.8% ROI, per Action Network) or that HC Jim Harbaugh has dominated Broncos HC Sean Payton (6-1 ATS, 62.8% ROI). The Broncos have struggled without EDGE Jonathon Cooper (Commissioner’s Exempt List) this season. If you're a sicko (and we both know you are), you might be able to get away with starting Mitchell in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Week 5 Scoring Upgrades: Kyren Williams vs. Bills & Chase Brown at Dolphins

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the RB."

This week, the Rams are No. 2 in implied team total (29.0 points); the Bengals, No. 5 (25.0).

Upgrades warranted.

Kyren Williams (Rams) vs. Bills: Williams has looked like a high-end RB1 so far this season (19.8 fantasy points per game, 467 yards, 4 TDs on 54 carries, 25 targets, 91 Utilization Score), and I expect that to continue against the Bills, who are No. 5 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+3.5), traveling across the country for a primetime game well outside their standard 1 pm ET kickoff window, and dealing with injuries to DTs Ed Oliver (knee) and T.J. Sanders (appendix). On top of that, the Rams have a fully boosted home-field advantage against the Bills, who are outside the division and conference, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). As a favorite of more than a field goal, Williams should smash.

Chase Brown (Bengals) at Dolphins: Brown hasn't had a great season (11.9 fantasy points per game, 310 yards, 1 TD on 58 carries, 24 targets), but his usage has been good (73% snap rate, 76% rush share, 75% goal-line rush share, 56% route rate, 86 Utilization Score), and it could increase this week without WRs Ja'Marr Chase (concussion), Tee Higgins (groin) and Colbie Young (knee). The Dolphins are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.2), and QB Joe Burrow is on the advantageous side of his splits: On the road, he dominates (31-15 ATS, 29.1% ROI). Outside the division, he devastates (40-17-1 ATS, 33.8% ROI). And on the road outside division … he decimates (23-7 ATS, 46.8% ROI).

Week 5 Home Favorite Upgrades: Jaylen Warren vs. Colts & Javonte Williams vs. Buccaneers

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home, where they're likely to enjoy a more run-heavy game script.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Colts: This is now my third straight week to feature Warren as a favorite. I don't see a good reason to change course now. No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle (toe) has neither practiced nor played over the past two weeks, and in his absence Warren has had position-best snap rates of 93% and 97%, which he has leveraged into the type of production and usage Warren stans have long been clamoring for (302 yards, 0 TDs on 34 carries, 10 targets, 92 Utilization Score). The Steelers have such massive situational power over the Colts, who are playing their third away game in four weeks … coming off the London game (3,717 miles this week). On top of that, the Steelers have a three-day rest-and-prep edge as well as a boosted home-field advantage because the Colts are outside the division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). As a home favorite, QB Aaron Rodgers tends to outperform (74-45-3 ATS, 20.2% ROI).

Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs. Buccaneers: The setup isn't perfect for Williams. The Cowboys have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (11,873 miles), and outside division, QB Dak Prescott has underperformed (43-55-2 ATS, -14.8% ROI). Plus, the matchup is tough, as the Bucs are No. 3 in defensive rush EPA (-0.253). Still, the Cowboys should be able to lean on the ground game after establishing a lead as -9.5 favorites at home, where the Cowboys have a boosted advantage because the Bucs are outside the division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). For the season, Williams has again been one of the league's best mid-tier producers (18.6 fantasy points per game, 308 yards, 6 TDs on 62 carries, 17 targets, 88 Utilization Score).

Week 5 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Emanuel Wilson vs. 49ers & Braelon Allen vs. Browns

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of offensive injuries.

Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs. 49ers: With RB Jadarian Price (chest, IR) unavailable last week, Wilson went off (25.5 fantasy points, 120 yards, 2 TDs on 21 carries, 4 targets, 90 Utilization Score). And with RB Zach Charbonnet (knee, PUP) uncertain to return this week, Wilson could lead the Seahawks backfield against the 49ers, who are No. 30 in defensive rush SR (46.7%) and dealing with their usual assortment of defensive injuries. They're already without EDGEs Mykel Williams (knee, PUP) and Sam Okuayinonu (foot, IR) and DTs Alfred Collins and C.J. West (knee, IR), and they could be down EDGE Nick Bosa (calf). Smash spot. Wilson is the No. 1 waiver wire pickup this week.

Braelon Allen (Jets) vs. Browns: No. 1 RB Breece Hall (quadriceps) was out last week, and in his absence Allen had a modest performance (7.7 fantasy points, 67 yards, 0 TDs on 14 carries, 2 targets) … but his usage was elite (94% snap rate, 100% rush share, 72% route rate). Now as a -1.5 home favorite against a Browns defense that could be without DT Mason Graham (knee), Allen should have more success this week if Hall is out once again.

Week 5 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Aaron Jones at Saints & Bhayshul Tuten vs. Eagles

Here are a couple RBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Aaron Jones (Vikings) at Saints: Over the past three weeks, with No. 1 RB Jordan Mason (thumb, IR) unavailable, Jones has dominated the backfield (78% snap rate, 81% rush share, 58% route rate, 88 Utilization Score) and put up numbers (325 yards, 0 TDs on 60 carries, 14 targets). QB Kyler Murray has generally done well on the road (28-13-2 ATS, 30.8% ROI), and the Vikings have a one-day rest-and-prep edge over the Saints, who are No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (19.6%). It's not ideal that the Vikings could be without LT Christian Darrisaw (head) and LG Donovan Jackson (knee), but the Saints don't have DT Bryan Bresee (knee, IR), and EDGEs Carl Granderson (ankle) and Anfernee Jennings (knee) and LB Kaden Elliss (calf) might be out.

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs. Eagles (in London): Tuten hasn't been sensational this season, but he has been sufficient (12.2 fantasy points per game, 331 yards, 2 TDs on 60 carries, 7 targets, 60 Utilization Score), and this week he could be a star: The Jags have a theoretical travel edge in that they play in London often, and the Eagles could be without EDGE Jonathan Greenard (ankle) and LB Zack Baun (concussion) in the front seven.

Notes

Week 5 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.