Will C.J. Stroud Step Back Into Rookie-Year Production?
Fantasy

Will C.J. Stroud Step Back Into Rookie-Year Production?

Ian Hartitz checks in on the Houston Texans QB situation, focusing on whether C.J. Stroud can get back to being viable for fantasy.

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Remember when there was top-10 hype around C.J. Stroud after his stellar rookie year? That was a tough season for superflex drafters taking him early. It's been up and down for Stroud his past two seasons, and now he is firmly in the QB2 range for those looking for a backup who doubles as a dart throw with upside. Is there more in there? Ian Hartitz breaks it down as part of his Houston Texans Team Preview.

Can C.J. Stroud get back to partying like it's 2023?

Look: There's no doubt Stroud had himself a ROUGH playoff stretch. Committing 5 fumbles (2 lost) and 1 interception against the Steelers were followed by 4 more picks in the team's season-ending loss to the Patriots. That's as many combined interceptions and fumbles as he had in 14 regular-season games!

The 24-year-old signal-caller needs to play better in January for the Texans to have a chance at advancing to their first conference championship … ever … but let's take a step back and appreciate the fact that Stroud did indeed do some nice things last season. While his numbers weren't quite up to the 2023 heights we saw as a rookie, this passing game was at least more efficient than what we saw in 2024.

The biggest thing that was still missing from Stroud's game last season was explosive plays. Overall, he posted the position's fourth-highest mark in explosive pass play rate (17.5%) in 2023, but ranked just 18th (13.5%) in 2025. Stroud completed just 16 passes thrown 30+ yards downfield last season compared to 29 in 2023!

The hope is that Year 2 in Nick Caley's system, combined with an improved offensive line, better run game and healthier WR room leads to more opportunities to attack downfield. Not exactly one clean change, but a reasonable improvement doesn't sound overly insane.

This brings us back to fantasy land, where Stroud has limped to QB28 (13 fantasy points per game) and most recently QB21 finishes (14.9) during the last two seasons following his electric rookie campaign (QB8, 18.3). Currently priced as the QB24 (pick 143) in early ADP, Stroud is a great example of someone priced far closer to their floor than ceiling—he joins guys like Malik Willis and Sam Darnold as rather awesome middle-round options at the position in superflex formats. Having these sorts of options with proven QB1 upside available outside of the position's top-20 most-drafted players has me very much down to ride with a late-round QB approach as my base strategy this offseason.

Also note: Davis Mills hasn't lost a start since Jan. 1, 2023. That's a long time! The former third-rounder deserves credit for guiding this team to three wins against the Jaguars, Titans and Bills last season with Stroud sidelined, although it's worth pointing out that he was a bottom-8 QB in EPA per dropback, success rate and completion percentage over expected last season. Quality backup capable of not making the big mistake and riding this awesome defense to a few wins? Absolutely. Someone who should legit be considered a threat to Stroud's starting job? Absolutely not.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. C.J. Stroud
    C.J.Stroud
    QBHOUHOU
    PPG
    14.1
    Proj
    257.0
  2. Davis Mills
    DavisMills
    QBHOUHOU
    PPG
    10.9
    Proj
    13.2

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