Upgrades For Week 9 Wide Receiver Rankings: Tee Higgins Takes Flight

Let's get into the Week 9 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

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Week 9 Wide Receiver Rankings

Rank	Player	Team	Opponent
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	ARI
2	Puka Nacua	LA	WAS
3	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	IND
4	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	ATL
5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	MIA
6	Tee Higgins	CIN	ATL
7	Malik Nabers	NYG	PHI
8	Chris Olave	NO	CLE
9	Christian Watson	GB	NE
10	Drake London	ATL	CIN
11	Justin Jefferson	MIN	BUF
12	Nico Collins	HOU	LAC
13	Matthew Golden	GB	NE
14	Mike Evans	SF	LV
15	Parker Washington	JAC	BAL
16	Luther Burden	CHI	TB
17	George Pickens	DAL	IND
18	Rashee Rice	KC	NYJ
19	Zay Flowers	BAL	JAC
20	Jameson Williams	DET	MIA
21	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	DEN
22	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	KC
23	Michael Wilson	ARI	SEA
24	Stefon Diggs	WAS	LA
25	Jalen Coker	CAR	DEN
26	DJ Moore	BUF	MIN
27	Ladd McConkey	LAC	HOU
28	Tre Tucker	LV	SF
29	Caleb Douglas	MIA	DET
30	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	CAR
31	Keenan Allen	IND	DAL
32	Denzel Boston	CLE	NO
33	KC Concepcion	CLE	NO
34	Makai Lemon	PHI	NYG
35	Rome Odunze	CHI	TB
36	Deebo Samuel	SF	LV

Week 9 Matchup Upgrades: Jameson Williams at Dolphins & Ladd McConkey vs. Texans

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Dolphins and Texans are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for WRs.

Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.288)
Texans: No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (32.4)

Bang a gong.

Jameson Williams (Lions) at Dolphins: After doing little in Weeks 1-3 (5.9 fantasy points per game, 10-127-0 receiving, 17 targets, 55 Utilization Score), he has exploded since Week 4 (17.4 fantasy points per game, 17-310-5 receiving, 27 targets, 83 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). And in the two games since the Week 6 bye, his usage has been elite (94% route rate, 48% air yard share, 60% end-zone target share, 87 Utilization Score). This is the second straight game for the Dolphins at home, where they have a fully amplified HFA because they're outside division and conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors), and the Lions might be without C Cade Mays (ankle). But all of that probably won't matter … because they're playing the Dolphins.

Ladd McConkey (Chargers) vs. Texans: McConkey has been a disappointment this season (7.2 fantasy points per game, 17-286-1 receiving, 24 targets), as he has missed time and played limited snaps (56% route rate). But in his first game off the bye last week he had a full workload (92% route rate, 39% air yard share) and his best game since Week 1 (10.6 fantasy points, 4-86-0 receiving, 6 targets). And for his career he has been much better at home (12.1 fantasy points per game, 64.5 yards, 0.56 TDs vs. 8.7, 53.2, 0.20 otherwise). The Texans are coming off the bye, they're still No. 3 in defensive dropback SR (41.6%), and the Chargers have a diminished HFA because they play in conference, on a similar turf surface, in a similar indoor stadium. But the Texans are also No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (19.2%).

Week 9 Scoring Upgrades: Mike Evans vs. Raiders & George Pickens at Colts

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the WRs."

This week, the 49ers are No. 1 in implied team total (30.5 points); the Cowboys, No. 2 (28.75).

Upgrades warranted.

Mike Evans (49ers) vs. Raiders: Evans (Achilles) missed Week 7, but I'm optimistic that he'll be able to play off the Week 8 bye. (If not, Jordan Watkins SZN, amirite?) Before the break, Evans was the team's primary downfield option (12.6 fantasy points per game, 27-420-3 receiving, 39 targets, 43% air yard share, 70 Utilization Score), especially in Weeks 5-6 (16.9 fantasy points per game, 10-207-1 receiving, 15 targets, 51% air yard share, 79 Utilization Score). This will be the sixth week out of the past eight not on the road for the 49ers, and the Raiders are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.0%).

George Pickens (Cowboys) at Colts: After a slow start in Weeks 1-3 (7.7 fantasy points per game, 16-150-0 receiving, 25 targets), Pickens has picked it up since Week 4 (12.4 fantasy points per game, 23-383-2 receiving, 37 targets), and for his career he has been notably better indoors (12.2 fantasy points per game, 78.2 yards, 0.30 TDs vs. 10.0, 60.1, and 0.32 otherwise). The Colts have lost four straight games, and in those losses they allowed 29.5 points per game. After trading away DT DeForest Buckner last week, they yielded 42 points to the Jaguars. The Colts are in full-on tear-it-down mode, they're No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs (49.5%), and they could be without CB Justin Walley (knee).

Week 9 Indoors Upgrades: Tee Higgins vs. Falcons & Justin Jefferson vs. Bills

In general, I want to be heavy on WRs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Falcons (in Madrid): Although Higgins is the Don Felder to Ja'Marr Chase's Joe Walsh, he's still a helluva guitarist in his own right. In fact, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Higgins (16.9 fantasy points per game, 43-726-4 receiving, 61 targets, 87 Utilization Score), and not Chase (15.2 fantasy points per game, 43-492-6 receiving, 61 targets, 81 Utilization Score), were the No. 1 WR for the Bengals this year … and you might not be wrong. QB Joe Burrow has been an assassin away from home (33-15-1 ATS, 31.1% ROI), outside division (40-18-2 ATS, 31.0% ROI), and indoors (7-1 ATS, 66.1% ROI, per Action Network). And although they're getting back EDGE James Pearce from suspension this week, the Falcons could be without three starters in EDGE Samson Ebukam (hamstring), LB Divine Deablo (forearm), and CB Billy Bowman (hamstring).

Justin Jefferson (Vikings) vs. Bills: Because the Vikings defense has been so dominant (No. 1, 13.3 points per game), the offense hasn't needed to do much for the team to surge to a 6-1 record. As a result, Jefferson has seen his production drop off (12.1 fantasy points per game, 28-335-4 receiving, 40 targets), but his usage is still strong (82% route rate, 32% air yard share, 50% end-zone target share). Throughout his career, Jefferson has been much better indoors (16.0 fantasy points per game, 94.5 yards, 0.54 TDs vs. 12.5, 76.4, and 0.31 otherwise), and the Bills are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (33.8%). It's theoretically less than ideal that QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) and LT Christian Darrisaw (shoulder) are dealing with injuries, but the Vikings have the No. 4 HFA over the past 16 games (+6.69, per NFElo), and it's fully amplified in this matchup because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, this will be their third week out of the past four not on the road.

Week 9 Injury Upgrades: Matthew Golden at Patriots & Makai Lemon vs. Giants

Here are a couple WRs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.

Matthew Golden (Packers) at Patriots: No. 1 in air yards (1,182) and No. 10 in WOPR (69%), Golden has enjoyed a significant sophomore breakout this year (13.8 fantasy points per game, 43-619-4 receiving, 82 targets with 1-6-0 rushing) and has actually earned more usage than No. 1 WR (87% route rate, 41% air yard share, 41% end-zone target share, 88 Utilization Score vs. 81%, 32%, 30%, 79). With Watson (ribs) exiting last week early, Golden dominated in the pass attack (17.4 fantasy points, 7-79-1 receiving, 13 targets, 97 Utilization Score), and he could have similar numbers this week if Watson is out. The Pats have the No. 2 HFA over the past 16 games (+8.54), and it's boosted because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass), but the Packers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and I expect them to lean into the pass game as +2.5 road dogs.

You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs. Giants: With WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) out the past two weeks, Lemon has stepped up to serve as the team's No. 1 WR (95% route rate, 25% target share, 31% air yard share, 78 Utilization Score). Thankfully for fantasy investors, he has converted his usage into respectable production (12.5 fantasy points per game, 13-124-1 receiving, 17 targets) after doing little in Weeks 1-6 (3.5 fantasy points per game, 18-127-0 receiving, 28 targets). With Smith and Wicks uncertain again, Lemon could be truly viable in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.