Week 9 Fantasy Football Receiver Score Buys & Fades: Tee Higgins Sell High Candidate?

DK Metcalf - Buy at a WR3 price

Metcalf has averaged 9.8 receiving points over his last 3 games on a 17.5-point expectation, including just 1.4 points Sunday. He's getting the targets (27 on a 29.1 expectation), so Pittsburgh needs to do more with those opportunities. He ran 97% of the routes over that stretch, but only 17% came from the slot and 1% included motion at the snap. The offense is why I am still below the model's WR10 ROS projection. He also has 36.6% of Pittsburgh's first-read targets over those 3 games, up from 31.4% for the season.

Here are a few names I have seen in recent trades that I would rather have: Omar Cooper, Keenan Allen, Devaughn Vele, Aaron Jones and Seth McGowan. I'm sticking with the low-end WR2 valuation I’ve had in previous weeks.

Sam LaPorta - Buy as a top-5 TE

LaPorta has averaged 9.6 receiving points over his last 3 games from routes worth 13.7 expected points per game. He has 12 targets against a 20.1-target expectation, while Jameson has scored 5 touchdowns in those games. LaPorta has run a route on 82% of Detroit's dropbacks over that stretch, with play-action on 37% of his routes.

Detroit did have him pass blocking more Sunday (21%, up from 8% for the season), which brought his route share down to 73% (as expected against the Vikings). 

Some recent trades I’ve seen where I’d lean LaPorta: Tre Tucker, Tyler Warren, Omarion Hampton and Dalton Kincaid. I have him as a top-5 TE.

Ladd McConkey - Buy as a WR3

McConkey's 12.6 receiving points Sunday were almost exactly what Receiver Score expected (12.7). The encouraging part was his return to a 92% route share after the concussion and bye week. He caught 4 passes for 86 yards—yes, one was a fluke)—with 52% of his routes from the slot and motion at the snap on 27%. He drew 18.8% of the Chargers' first-read targets Sunday. I’m just glad that he looks like he’s fully healthy. It was a brutal schematic matchup and we knew the offensive line would struggle, but I saw some slightly encouraging things, so I think we have a buy-window.

Give me McConkey over DeVonta Smith and Woody Marks (trades I’ve seen completed in the past day or two). I'm buying him as a WR3.

KC Concepcion - Buy after the quiet game

Concepcion had only 4 targets Sunday against a 10.1-target expectation, with 6.7 receiving points from routes worth 17.2 expected points. Cleveland still had him running a route on 86% of its dropbacks. Over his last 3 games, he's been in the slot on 67% of his routes and in motion at the snap on 19%, with 13.0 expected receiving points per game. Concepcion is at 24.6% first-read share over his last 3 games, so he’s usually going to be involved in the offense.

Concepcion is a mid-tier WR3 for me ROS.

Harold Fannin - Buy as a low-end TE1

Fannin beat expectation Sunday with 12 targets against 9.4 expected and 25.4 receiving points against 15.9 expected. He caught 10 passes for 154 yards without a touchdown, and even the lower expectation would have given us a useful TE week. He's run 83% of Cleveland's routes this season, which is near the top of the position. Cleveland also used him in the slot on 33% of Sunday's routes and off play-action on 19%. He accounted for 37.5% of Cleveland's first-read targets Sunday, up from 19.6% for the season. That’s a gob-some for any player, let alone a TE.

He’s probably an easy player to get—I’ve seen recent trades go for as low as: Germie Bernard, Juwan Johnson, Wan'Dale Robinson and Tyler Warren. The model has Fannin at TE8 ROS.

Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Selling

Tee Higgins - Sell for a WR1

Higgins scored 37.5 receiving points Sunday against a 20.0-point expectation, bringing his last 3 games to 22.8 points per game on a 13.2 expectation. The workload is strong, too. He ran 98% of Cincinnati's routes Sunday, and the Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expectation this season (+7.7). I think it is time to cash in on that and the pass TD regression that this offense is due for.

London, Collins and Christian Watson are a few players I would rather have than Higgins. London's last 3 games have carried a 17.8-point receiving expectation and Collins' last 3 have carried a 15.1-point expectation, both above Higgins' 13.2. He's a high-end WR2 for me.

T.J. Hockenson - Sell for a more reliable TE

Hockenson has averaged 14.7 receiving points over his 2 games since returning from the Week 5 concussion, well above the 8.5 expected from those routes. He's scored in both games. His route share has improved to 71% over that stretch and 76% Sunday, with 44% of his routes from the slot and play-action on 29% across those 2 games. I still prefer Fannin's fuller receiving role.

Receiver Score has him as a top-tier TE2 ROS.

Jameson Williams - Sell for a stable WR2

Jameson has averaged 20.6 receiving points over his last 3 games on an 11.2-point expectation, with 5 touchdowns during that stretch. He's also earned 19 targets against 15.3 expected. Detroit has used play-action on 43% of his routes and had him running 93% of its routes over those games, so I still like the usage that made him a Week 7 buy. Detroit also gave him 42.9% of its first-read targets Sunday. I'd now try to turn the touchdown production into one of the players below.

Some names I like above Jameson Williams: DJ Moore, Jalen Coker, Rashee Rice. I have Jameson as a WR3.

Fantasy Football Adds Receiver Score is Making

Khalil Shakir - Add as a low-end WR3

Shakir's 11.4 receiving points Sunday were close to Receiver Score's 12.1-point expectation. His route share has stayed at 81% over his last 3 games, up from 74% for the season, and Buffalo had him moving at the snap on 48% of his routes Sunday. Buffalo also used play-action on 32% of his routes. I like that Buffalo is giving him more playing time (and playing him on the outside) along with the motion and play-action work. His first-read target share is 17.7% over those last 3 games, which is adequate enough in this explosive offense.

He was rostered in 60% of ESPN leagues as of Monday. Shakir is a low-end WR3 in PPR for me.

Caleb Douglas - Add as WR4 depth

Douglas scored 8.3 receiving points Sunday from routes worth 11.3 expected points, catching 4 passes for 43 yards on 6 targets. I faded him last week after 2 touchdowns on 3 targets, and this game gave us a better idea of what he can offer without the touchdowns. He ran 86% of Miami's routes, with 90% of his work outside and motion at the snap on only 6%. I still don't see a big change in how Miami is using him. He also accounted for 22.7% of Miami's first-read targets Sunday. The film on him looks pretty good—if this offense can take another small step forward—he could be startable.

He was rostered in 29% of ESPN leagues as of Monday. Douglas is WR4 depth for me.

Fantasy Football Drops Receiver Score is Making

Quentin Johnston - Drop

Johnston's 6.6 receiving points per game over his last 3 appearances are almost identical to his 6.5-point expectation. He's already running 82% of the Chargers' routes, so there isn't much more playing time to gain. Only 1% of those routes included motion at the snap, and go, post or corner routes accounted for 40%. His first-read target share over those 3 games is only 5.4%. I'd drop him for Shakir or Douglas in a typical redraft league.

Chris Bell - Not this year

Bell has averaged 4.2 receiving points over his last 3 games on a 5.3-point expectation. He's running 75% of Miami's routes, but only 17% come from the slot and 3% include motion at the snap. Miami also averages just 56.7 plays per game this season. He's drawn just 12.8% of Miami's first-read targets over those 3 games. I'd take Douglas if I wanted a Miami receiver and leave Bell on waivers in redraft. He's a dynasty hold.

Fantasy Football Players Receiver Score is Watching

Tre Harris - Maybe later

Harris caught all 3 targets for 31 yards in his return from the hamstring injury, with 6.1 receiving points on a 5.6-point expectation. He ran only 53% of the Chargers' routes with McConkey back, including motion at the snap on 11% and play-action on 16% of his routes. He drew 18.8% of the Chargers' first-read targets Sunday. He needs more playing time before I'd add him in redraft, but he looks much better than Quentin Johnston, so maybe he gets that role soon.