San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 6

This matchup breakdown is curated from Week 6 analysis already published at Fantasy Life by Matthew Freedman, Dwain McFarland and Zain Dhanani. Every blurb below appears in full as originally written (some edits made with news updates), with its author credited and a link to the piece it came from.

Commanders vs. 49ers Matchup Breakdown For Week 6 Fantasy Football

• Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 19, 8:15 pm ET (Monday Night Football)
• Spread: 49ers -7.5 (opened -5.5)
• Total: 51.5 (opened 50.5)
• Implied Team Totals: SF 29.5, WAS 22.0

Consensus market odds as of Friday afternoon. Check our NFL odds page for the latest lines.

San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Preview For Week 6

Brock Purdy (QB)

From Matthew Freedman's Week 6 QB Favorites (Matchup Upgrades):

Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Commanders: Purdy has been a fantasy fade for me in each of the past two weeks, and while he hasn't been great in that timespan (64.4% completion rate, 7.5 AY/A), he also hasn't been full-on fadable. So this week I make amends. For the season, Purdy has played at an MVP level in terms of both pure production (23.7 fantasy points per game, 1,196 yards passing, 13 TDs, 2 INTs with 25-128-1 rushing) and elite efficiency (69.0% completion rate, 9.6 AY/A). I expect that to continue now against the Commanders, who have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (10,944 miles), whereas the 49ers are on their fourth home game in five weeks.

Mike Evans (WR)

From Matthew Freedman's Week 6 WR Favorites (Scoring Upgrades):

Mike Evans (49ers) vs. Commanders: The Commanders are No. 4 in largest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+4.3). No. 2 WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) exited last week with an injury, and in his absence Evans had his best game of the season in both production (22.8 fantasy points, 7-113-1 receiving, 10 targets) and utilization (76% route rate, 36% target share, 65% air yard share, 50% end zone target share, 92 Utilization Score). Samuel is out again, so Evans should dominate. He's creeping toward WR1 territory.

From Dwain McFarland's Week 6 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (Wide Receivers I Am Starting):

Mike Evans | 49ers

Evans ranks second in the NFL in TPRR (31%) behind only Jaxson Smith-Njigba. In three games where Evans hasn't left with an injury, he has averaged 18.6 PPG.

Last weekend, he placed 26.3 fantasy points in fantasy managers' coffers. He dominated with a 36% target share.

I dug deeper into the underlying factors behind Evans' success in this week's Utilization Report and offered a range of outcomes for the rest of the season.

The 49ers have the second-highest team total (29.95) in the NFL Game Model, and the Commanders have sanctioned the No. 5 boost to WR corps (5.3 PPG).

Evans has quickly moved from WR3 conversation to WR2 status. But things are even better this week.

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 17.6
• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 25.1
• Floor: 13.2

Evans is a mid-range WR1 against Washington in Week 6.

George Kittle (TE)

From Matthew Freedman's Week 6 TE Favorites (Matchup Upgrades):

George Kittle (49ers) vs. Commanders: Last week, I highlighted Kittle as a fantasy fade, and I gotta say … nailed it (4.9 fantasy points, 5-24-0 receiving, 6 targets), even with him having decent usage (85% route rate, 24% target share, 72 Utilization Score). This week, though, I expect a bounceback. The Commanders are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (40.9%) and could be without S/CB Nick Cross (illness). Plus, Kittle should see extra work this week without No. 2 WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring).

From Dwain McFarland's Week 6 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (TEs That Bombed That I Am Starting Again):

George Kittle | 49ers: Kittle managed only 7.4 points in a high-scoring game against Seattle last week. But he has a great bounceback setup in Week 6 against the Commanders. The 49ers have the second-highest team total (30), and Washington has been obliterated by TEs, licensing a 10 PPG boost. Kittle has a median projection of 16 points with an Xfinity Best ceiling of 22.4 points. Kittle is a high-end TE1 and worthy of a flex spot if you took him late as your TE2.

Washington Commanders Fantasy Preview For Week 6

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

From Matthew Freedman's Week 6 RB Fades (Road Dog Downgrades):

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) at 49ers: On the one hand, Croskey-Merritt has been serviceable in the two full games QB Jayden Daniels has played (13.2 fantasy points per game, 138 yards, 2 TDs on 27 carries, 1 target). On the other hand, he's actually the No. 2 RB in a full-blown timeshare with teammate Rachaad White (49% snap rate, 50 Utilization Score vs. 45%, 50), and White is the more utilized back in pass situations (41% route rate vs. 23%) and in two-minute scenarios (100% snap rate vs. 6%). As +7.5 road dogs, the Commanders could rely on White way more than "Bill" against the 49ers, who are No. 4 in defensive rush EPA (-0.215). And it doesn't help that the Commanders have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (10,944 miles) and are heading west for a primetime game way outside their normal 1 pm ET kickoff window.

From Zain Dhanani's Week 6 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages (Matchups That Are Tougher):

Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. 49ers Run Defense: Croskey-Merritt has taken 77% of his carries on inside or outside zone runs this season. San Francisco has allowed 3.00 YPC on those concepts, without a single gain of at least 10 yards on 43 carries.

Croskey-Merritt is still sharing the backfield, with 11 of Washington's 21 RB carries last week. He ran a route on just 16% of the team's dropbacks without earning a target.

I'd only use Croskey-Merritt as a flex against San Francisco, especially in PPR leagues where he's giving us very little as a receiver.

Rachaad White (RB)

From Dwain McFarland's Week 6 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (RB Sicko Starts):

Rachaad White | Commanders: White led the team with a 60% snap share in a shootout. The Commanders are 9.5-point dogs and likely to trail against the 49ers. White is the passing-down back, and San Francisco has boosted RB passing PPG by 4.1 PPG—the second most. White is a sneaky mid-range RB3 who is rostered in 48% of leagues.

Stefon Diggs & Antonio Williams (WR)

From Dwain McFarland's Week 6 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em (WR Injury Watch):

Stefon Diggs | Commanders → Antonio Williams: Diggs (hamstring) didn't play in Week 5, but was back on the field for the last two days of practice. His status is once again up in the air for Week 6 against the 49ers. The Commanders are a 9.5-point dog in Freedman's model, and San Francisco has played WRs fairly well (-2.8 PPG). But they run the eighth-most zone (76%), where Diggs thrives. The veteran WR leads the Commanders with a 25% TPRR against zone. If he can't play, Antonio Williams would start again—he ranks second in zone TPRR (24%) for Washington. Diggs will be a mid-range WR3 if he practices fully at some point this week. If he can't go, Williams is a borderline WR3.

Sources

• Matthew Freedman: Week 6 QB Favorites, RB Fades, WR Favorites, TE Favorites (full series: Freedman's Favorites & Fades for Week 6)
• Dwain McFarland: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em For Week 6 Fantasy Football Lineups
• Zain Dhanani: Week 6 Scheme Advantages & Disadvantages For Fantasy Football

Back to the full Week 6 Game-By-Game Breakdown.