RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 8 Fantasy Football: Lower Expectations With Kenneth Walker

Let's get into the Week 8 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 8 favorites and fades.

RB Rankings For Week 8 (Top 24)

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Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Bijan Robinson
3	Kenneth Walker
4	Derrick Henry
5	Kyren Williams
6	James Cook
7	Javonte Williams
8	Jonathan Taylor
9	Chuba Hubbard
10	Josh Jacobs
11	Bhayshul Tuten
12	Jaylen Warren
13	Ashton Jeanty
14	Bucky Irving
15	D'Andre Swift
16	Chase Brown
17	Rhamondre Stevenson
18	Ollie Gordon
19	Tony Pollard
20	Jeremiyah Love
21	Blake Corum
22	Breece Hall
23	Quinshon Judkins
24	Jordan Mason

Week 8 RB Rankings Matchup Downgrades: Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Vikings & Jonathan Taylor at Jaguars

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Jaguars are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-5.0)
Jaguars: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (14.7)

Here be dragons.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Vikings: When a guy is always locked in at No. 1 but this week you think about ranking him No. 2 … that's a downgrade. The Lions are -3.5 favorites at home, where over the past five years they've had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and Week 5 was their last time on the road, so their setup is good, but it's not perfect: The Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. Gibbs has absolutely smashed this season (25.8 fantasy points per game, 890 yards, 9 TDs on 134 carries, 40 targets, 99 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but last year in two games against the Vikings he did almost nothing (4.9 fantasy points per game, 92 yards, 0 TDs on 26 carries, 6 targets) … and his performance was somehow even worse than his production (2.5 yards per carry, 4.3 yards per target).

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) at Jaguars: For the season, Taylor's numbers look good (18.4 fantasy points per game, 765 yards, 8 TDs on 140 carries, 26 targets, 90 Utilization Score), but he has been a boom/bust producer with five games of at least 18.0 fantasy points and two with fewer than 10.0. This feels as if it could be a bust week for Taylor, on account of the matchup and the setup: The Jaguars are coming off the bye at home, where they've had the league's No. 1 HFA over the past five years (+8.22), and the Colts are +7.5 dogs on the road, where they will now play their fifth game in seven weeks. Divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI, per Action Network), but I doubt the Colts will be pointed enough here to make me enthusiastic about Taylor, who had acceptable but average showings in two games last year against the Jags (13.7 fantasy points per game, 158 yards, 2 TDs on 42 carries, 6 targets).

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 8 RB Ranks: Ashton Jeanty at Jets & Kenneth Walker at Broncos

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the RBs."

This week the Raiders are No. 16 in implied team total (22.25 points), and the Chiefs are No. 19 (21.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) at Jets: The setup for the Raiders isn't good. They're traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, and the Jets have a boosted HFA against them because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass) and outdoors (vs. indoors). And here's the main problem … I don't think Jeanty is good (3.5 yards per carry, 5.6 yards per target for career). His production is fine (15.0 fantasy points per game, 640 yards, 4 TDs on 106 carries, 44 targets), but it's not as good as one might expect given his usage (69% snap rate, 66% rush share, 82% goal-line rush share, 58% route rate, 91 Utilization Score), which has declined over the past three weeks (61% snap rate, 53% rush share, 60% goal-line rush share, 50% route rate, 80 Utilization Score). The Jets could be without EDGE Joseph Ossai (ankle) and NT T'Vondre Sweat (knee) on top of DT David Onyemata (groin, IR), but they're still No. 7 in defensive rush EPA (-0.157).

Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) at Broncos: After he had racked up 20+ fantasy points in five straight games, I highlighted Walker as a fantasy fade last week, and he responded with easily his worst performance of the season (7.7 fantasy points, 57 yards, 0 TDs on 14 carries, 5 targets). I doubt he'll be as bad this week, but I'm once again fading him. The Chiefs have drastically cut down the HFA for the Broncos because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium … but the Broncos have had the league's No. 3 HFA over the past five years (+6.87, per NFElo), they're No. 8 in defensive rush SR (36.0%), and this is the second straight road game for the Chiefs, who could be without RT Jaylon Moore (concussion) on top of LT Josh Simmons (back, IR).

Road Dog Downgrades In The Week 8 RB Rankings: Derrick Henry at Bills & D'Andre Swift at Seahawks

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) at Bills: Right now the Ravens (in my opinion) are priced as if QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) will play … but they were also priced that way last week at this point, and he ended up not playing after practicing on a limited basis each day. So … until I see Jackson practice in full, I'm projecting him out. In Henry's three games with backup QB Tyler Huntley as the starter, his production has plummeted (10.1 fantasy points per game, 229 yards, 1 TD on 58 carries, 5 targets). And even if Jackson does play, Henry's still a +3.5 dog, and his setup is suboptimal: The Bills are No. 5 in largest boost allowed to RBs (+3.2), but they're home off the bye, the Ravens are on their third road game in four weeks, and they could be without RG Olaivavega Ioane (knee).

D'Andre Swift (Bears) at Seahawks: Ordinarily, I love Swift, who has been a favorite in six of the past seven weeks. And my faith has been rewarded (16.0 fantasy points per game, 628 yards, 7 TDs on 116 carries, 25 targets, 80 Utilization Score). But I expect this week to be different. The Bears have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and QB Caleb Williams is usually at his best outside division (18-7-1 ATS, 37.3% ROI), so the setup isn't terrible, but this is a poor travel spot for the Bears, who are on their third road game in four weeks. On top of that, the Seahawks are on their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass). And then there's the matchup: The Seahawks are No. 2 in defensive rush SR (32.1%). I legitimately might consider benching Swift in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Notes

Week 8 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants, and Texans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.