QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 8 Fantasy Football: Bryce Young & More

Let's get into the Week 8 QB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 8 favorites and fades.

Week 8 QB Rankings (Top 15)

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Rank	Player
1	Josh Allen
2	Drake Maye
3	Joe Burrow
4	Lamar Jackson
5	Trevor Lawrence
6	Dak Prescott
7	Matthew Stafford
8	Jayden Daniels
9	Jordan Love
10	Caleb Williams
11	Jared Goff
12	Jacoby Brissett
13	Bryce Young
14	Patrick Mahomes
15	Kirk Cousins

Matchup Downgrades In Week 8 QB Rankings: Jared Goff vs. Vikings & Caleb Williams at Seahawks

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.226)
Seahawks: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-6.7)

Here be dragons.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Vikings: Based on his production (22.2 fantasy points per game, 1,788 yards passing, 14 TDs, 0 INTs with 12-15-1 rushing) and efficiency (67.3% completion rate, 9.3 AY/A), Goff has played at an MVP level this season. Over the past five years, the Lions have had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and Week 5 was their last time on the road, so their setup is good, but it's not perfect: The Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. Plus, Goff has been profitable against HC Kevin O'Connell's Vikes (6-2 ATS, 43.6% ROI, per Action Network) … but last year he disappointed in two games (11.7 fantasy points per game, 481 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs with 3-2-0 rushing), and he could be without No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle).

Caleb Williams (Bears) at Seahawks: The Bears have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and Williams is usually at his best outside division (18-7-1 ATS, 37.3% ROI), so the setup isn't terrible, but this is a poor travel spot for the Bears, who are on their third road game in four weeks. On top of that, the Seahawks are on their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass). In three full games this year, Williams has dominated (25.3 fantasy points per game, 882 yards passing, 5 TDs, 0 INTs with 19-86-2 rushing), but his fourth (and almost full) game was an utter dud against the Vikings (8.7 fantasy points, 138 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT with 5-42-0 rushing), to whom the Seahawks are comparable with their shutdown pass defense.

QB Rankings Scoring Downgrades For Week 8: Bryce Young at Packers & Patrick Mahomes at Broncos

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the QB."

This week the Panthers are No. 14 in implied team total (22.5 points), and the Chiefs are No. 19 (21.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Bryce Young (Panthers) at Packers: Young has done well this year … sort of. His production is good (20.0 fantasy points per game, 1,712 yards passing, 12 TDs, 4 INTs with 10-34-1 rushing), but his efficiency is much more modest (59.2% completion rate, 7.8 AY/A), and in two games since the Week 5 bye, his numbers have markedly declined (13.6 fantasy points per game, 444 yards passing, 3 TDs, 2 INTs with 4-15-0 rushing; 51.5% completion rate, 6.3 AY/A). Unfortunately, Young's success earlier this year might be more noise than signal. And then he has a tough matchup against the Packers, who are No. 3 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-4.0) and who have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). Young was terrible last year when he faced the Packers at Lambeau Field (4.0 fantasy points, 102 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT with 2-9-0 rushing). On top of that, WR Jalen Coker (shoulder) and LG Damien Lewis (knee) are uncertain, and RT Taylor Moton (leg, IR) is out. I wouldn't feel good about starting Young in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Broncos: It feels dirty to say this, but this is my third straight week to feature Mahomes as a fantasy fade. And yet … in his two games since the Week 5 bye, he has massively disappointed (9.2 fantasy points per game, 437 yards passing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs with 7-30-0 rushing). I'm not saying it's all his fault: The injuries to WRs Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle, IR), LT Josh Simmons (back, IR), and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion) have definitely taken their toll. It's not all bad for the Chiefs: Although the Broncos have had the league's No. 3 HFA over the past five years (+6.87), the Chiefs have drastically cut down that edge because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. But this is the second straight road game for the Chiefs, and the Broncos, even without No. 1 CB Patrick Surtain (ankle), have been No. 3 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.149) over the past three weeks. For the season, they're No. 4 (-0.051). In his one game against the Broncos last year, Mahomes was middling (14.3 fantasy points, 276 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT with 1-3-0 rushing).

Situational Downgrades In QB Rankings For Week 8: Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles & Aaron Rodgers vs. Browns

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Jayden Daniels (Commanders) vs. Eagles: In the two games since his Week 5 return from injury, Daniels has looked a lot like his 2024 OROY self (26.6 fantasy points per game, 499 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs with 13-113-2 rushing). But he's without No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin (knee), and HC Dan Quinn tends to disappoint as a favorite (29-41 ATS, -19.2% ROI). The setup is decent in that the Commanders are coming off the bye and the Eagles are losing a day off Monday Night Football, but the Commanders have a drastically reduced HFA because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium.

Aaron Rodgers (Steelers) vs. Browns: Despite struggling with his efficiency (61.6% completion rate, 6.6 AY/A), contributing almost nothing as a runner (12-23-0 rushing on 0% designed rush share, 1% scramble rate, 0% goal-line rush share), and losing WRs Michael Pittman (foot, IR) and Roman Wilson (finger, IR), Rodgers has been functional this year (16.8 fantasy points per game, 1,699 yards passing, 13 TDs, 5 INTs). But his matchup is tough: Even after trading away DPOY EDGE Myles Garrett this offseason, the Browns are No. 5 in defensive dropback SR (42.2%). Plus, the Steelers have traveled more than any other team over the past month on account of playing in Paris last week (9,440 miles). Finally, the Steelers have a drastically reduced HFA against the Browns because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium.

Notes

Week 8 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants, and Texans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.