RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 7 Fantasy Football: Jonathan Taylor & More

Let's get into the Week 7 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 7 favorites and fades.

RB Rankings For Week 7 (Top 24)

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Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Bijan Robinson
3	Kenneth Walker
4	Christian McCaffrey
5	Kyren Williams
6	Derrick Henry
7	Jonathan Taylor
8	Javonte Williams
9	Jaylen Warren
10	D'Andre Swift
11	Chuba Hubbard
12	Braelon Allen
13	Bucky Irving
14	Ashton Jeanty
15	Chase Brown
16	Dameon Pierce
17	Rhamondre Stevenson
18	Aaron Jones
19	Josh Jacobs
20	Woody Marks
21	Ollie Gordon
22	Blake Corum
23	Tony Pollard
24	Kendre Miller

Week 7 RB Rankings Matchup Downgrades: Jonathan Taylor at Vikings & Kenneth Walker at Seahawks

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-5.7)
Seahawks: No. 2 in defensive rush DVOA (-26.4%)

Here be dragons.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) at Vikings: For the season, Taylor's numbers look good (18.5 fantasy points per game, 655 yards, 7 TDs on 122 carries, 23 targets, 90 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But over the past month, he has been a boom/bust producer with two games of more than 20 fantasy points and another two games with fewer than 10. Given the matchup against the Vikings, who are off the bye and No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.263) and SR (28.0%), this looks like one of the bust weeks. The Colts are +6.5 road dogs and on their third away game in four weeks.

Kenneth Walker (Chiefs) at Seahawks: Walker has been a top-five positional finisher with 20+ fantasy points in every active week this year. His production has been legendary (26.2 fantasy points per game, 760 yards, 8 TDs on 106 carries, 22 targets); his usage (75% snap rate, 83% rush share, 100% goal-line rush share, 46% route rate, 90 Utilization Score) is beyond satisfactory. And with WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) still uncertain, the offense should continue to flow through him. Plus, QB Patrick Mahomes, as a road dog, has been an all-time moneymaker (10-1-1 ATS, 72.3% ROI, per Action Network). But the Seahawks have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and they have an amplified home-field advantage because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Additionally, the Chiefs could be without their OL bookends in LT Josh Simmons (back) and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion). In this #RevengeGame for Walker, the dish might be cold, but it probably won't be a frozen meal.

Scoring Downgrades In The Week 7 RB Rankings: Ashton Jeanty vs. Rams & Bucky Irving at Panthers

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the RBs."

This week the Raiders are No. 18 in implied team total (21.5 points), and the Buccaneers are No. 19 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) vs. Rams: The setup is decent for the Raiders. This is their third home game in four weeks, and they have a boosted home-field advantage against the Rams because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Here's the main problem … I don't think Jeanty is that good (3.5 yards per carry, 5.5 yards per target for career). His production is fine (14.6 fantasy points per game, 564 yards, 3 TDs on 98 carries, 36 targets), but it's not as good as one might expect given his usage (69% snap rate, 67% rush share, 82% goal-line rush share, 56% route rate, 91 Utilization Score), which has declined over the past two weeks (55% snap rate, 53% rush share, 60% goal-line rush share, 43% route rate, 72 Utilization Score). As a +4.5 dog, Jeanty could see his downward usage trend worsen this week.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) at Panthers: Last week, I highlighted Irving as a fantasy fade … and then he enjoyed elite usage in a game that went into overtime (90% rush share, 63% route rate). Yikes! And yet … he still did almost nothing (5.9 fantasy points, 49 yards, 0 TDs on 19 carries, 3 targets, 68 Utilization Score). If that's not proof of concept, I don't know what is. As long as QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out and Irving is saddled with undrafted rookie backup QB Jalon Daniels, he's a weekly downgrade candidate, especially as a +3.5 road dog going against a Panthers defense that's No. 5 in rush SR (35.0%).

Road Dog Downgrades For Week 7 In RB Rankings: Chase Brown at Ravens & Rhamondre Stevenson at Bears

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Chase Brown (Bengals) at Ravens: This is an intriguing spot for Brown. The Bengals are off the bye, and even though they're +2.5 road dogs, QB Joe Burrow has excelled as a road dog (16-7 ATS, 34.1% ROI), and divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (749-641-37 ATS, 4.6% ROI). But Brown has been woefully inefficient this season at turning his usage (82 Utilization Score) into actual production (10.6 fantasy points per game, 370 yards, 1 TD on 71 carries, 28 targets), and in Week 5 he actually was out-utilized by No. 2 RB Samaje Perine (65 Utilization Score vs. 63). With these circumstances, Brown simply might not see enough work as a dog to put up livable numbers.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) at Bears: This is a subpar spot. The Bears are No. 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (15.8). Over the past five years, they've had the league's No. 4 home-field advantage (+5.54, per NFElo), and they have a boosted home edge against the Pats because they're outside the division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Additionally, Stevenson could be without LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), RG Ben Brown (knee), and RT Morgan Moses (ankle). On top of that, last week Stevenson lost meaningful work to … checks notes … No. 3 RB Corey Kiner (11-57-0 rushing). With the Pats, it's almost impossible to predict how the backfield will split in any given week, especially as +3 road dogs. It feels overly dangerous to start Stevenson in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Notes

Week 7 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bills, Jaguars, Commanders, and Chargers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.