QB Rankings Downgrades For Week 7 Fantasy Football: Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for QBs.

• Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.218)
• Seahawks: No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (-5.6)

Here be dragons.

Daniel Jones (Colts) at Vikings: I've said it before, but this time I absolutely mean it. Never again will I feature Jones as a fantasy favorite. This year, he has been irredeemably unproductive (11.2 fantasy points per game, 1,290 yards passing, 4 TDs, 6 INTs with 17-55-1 rushing) and inefficient (59.6% completion rate, 5.0 AY/A). Basically, he sucks, and so do his circumstances: He could be without both No. 1 WR Alec Pierce (heel, IR) and TE Tyler Warren (groin), the Colts are on their third away game in four weeks, and the Vikings are coming off the bye. Honestly, in superflex I'd strongly consider starting someone from another position instead of Jones, and I wouldn't even dream about him in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Seahawks: Last week I highlighted Mahomes as a fantasy fade, and he responded with a modest performance (11.5 fantasy points, 272 yards passing, 0 TDs, 1 INT with 5-16-0 rushing). I expect something somewhat similar this week. On top of the matchup, the Seahawks have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and they have an amplified home-field advantage because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Here's the thing: Mahomes as a road dog has been an all-time moneymaker (10-1-1 ATS, 72.3% ROI, per Action Network). I hate the idea of actually fading him in this spot. But he could be down four starters in WRs Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle, IR), LT Josh Simmons (back), and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion).

Scoring Downgrades In QB Rankings For Week 7: Jalon Daniels at Panthers & J.J. McCarthy at Texans

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the QB."

This week the Buccaneers are No. 19 in implied team total (20.5 points), and the Giants are No. 28 (16.75).

Downgrades warranted.

Jalon Daniels (Buccaneers) at Panthers: To his credit, Daniels has been the No. 2 QB in scramble rate (13%, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report) in his three starts as the injury fill-in for QB Baker Mayfield (thumb). Even so, the undrafted rookie's production has been forgettable (13.3 fantasy points per game, 501 yards passing, 3 TDs, 4 INTs with 19-117-0 rushing), in large part because his passing efficiency has been atrocious (61.2% completion rate, 3.4 AY/A). The Panthers are without CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR) and Mike Jackson (groin, IR), but I doubt that Daniels, who's yet to pass for 200+ yards in a game, has the ability to challenge a defense that doesn't belong to the Cowboys.

J.J. McCarthy (Giants) at Texans: McCarthy came on in relief of QB Jameis Winston last week, and given how he played in just a little over a quarter of action (17.3 fantasy points, 243 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT with 2-26-0 rushing), I tentatively expect him to start this week. Here's the issue: Last year, McCarthy proved himself to be one of the worst QBs in the space-time continuum (57.6% completion rate, 5.4 AY/A) … and I have zero faith in OC Matt Nagy to help out McCarthy with a scheme advantage, especially if WR Darnell Mooney (neck) and RT Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) are out.

Week 7 QB Rankings Situational Downgrades: Drake Maye at Bears & Deshaun Watson at Titans

In general, I want to avoid QBs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Drake Maye (Patriots) at Bears: After a rough first three games of the season (9.2 fantasy points per game, 585 yards passing, 1 TD, 6 INTs with 15-82-0 rushing), Maye has played like an MVP over the past three weeks (30.2 fantasy points per game, 878 yards passing, 10 TDs, 1 INT with 19-103-1 rushing), and for the year he's the No. 1 QB with a 50% goal-line rush share. But he's in a poor spot this week: The Bears are No. 3 in defensive dropback SR (39.5%), over the past five years they've had the league's No. 4 home-field advantage (+5.54, per NFElo), and they have a boosted home edge against the Pats because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Additionally, Maye could be without four offensive starters: WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder), LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring), RG Ben Brown (knee), and RT Morgan Moses (ankle).

Deshaun Watson (Browns) at Titans: Watson has been respectable this season (15.1 fantasy points per game, 1,174 yards passing, 7 TDs, 2 INTs with 45-196-0 rushing) … but over the past three weeks, he has regressed (11.9 fantasy points per game, 587 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT with 21-91-0 rushing). I'm not saying the Titans shouldn't be dogs … but Watson has disappointed as a favorite throughout his career (14-22-2 ATS, -23.0% ROI), and the Titans have a boosted home-field advantage because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass).

Notes

Week 7 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bills, Jaguars, Commanders, and Chargers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)