TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 7 Fantasy Football: Isaiah Likely & More

Let's get into the Week 7 TE rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 7 favorites and fades.

TE Rankings For Week 7 (Top 15)

To access all my fantasy football rankings, my weekly written content, our Fantasy HQ League Hub, our weekly player projections, and my personal NFL Game Model, use the promo code FREEDMAN for a 10% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Rank	Player
1	George Kittle
2	Brock Bowers
3	Trey McBride
4	Isaiah Likely
5	Sam LaPorta
6	Tucker Kraft
7	Colston Loveland
8	Travis Kelce
9	Dallas Goedert
10	Juwan Johnson
11	Harold Fannin
12	Tyler Higbee
13	Kyle Pitts
14	Pat Freiermuth
15	Hunter Henry

Week 7 Matchup Downgrades In My TE Rankings: Brock Bowers vs. Rams & Harold Fannin at Titans

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Rams and Titans are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

Rams: No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-62.6%)
Titans: No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-4.5)

Here be dragons.

Brock Bowers (Raiders) vs. Rams: Relax. It's not as if I'm telling you to bench Bowers in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week. Since making his season debut in Week 3, Bowers has dominated (17.1 fantasy points per game, 28-382-3 receiving, 43 targets, 100 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The setup is decent for the Raiders. This is their third home game in four weeks, and they have a boosted home-field advantage against the Rams because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Plus, the Rams might be without CB Trent McDuffie (groin). But the matchup is brutal: The Rams are No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (6.0) and smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-6.6). When two equal but opposite forces meet, what happens? A modest downgrade.

Harold Fannin (Browns) at Titans: On the one hand, Fannin destroyed the Titans last year (21.4 fantasy points, 8-114-1 receiving, 11 targets). On the other hand, this is a new season, and over the past two games his numbers have been almost nonexistent (1.2 fantasy points per game, 2-13-0 receiving, 7 targets, 39 Utilization Score). Fannin always has a chance to go off because he's talented, and the Titans are dealing with injuries to FS Kevin Winston (quadriceps) and No. 3 S Tony Adams (ankle). But QB Deshaun Watson has disappointed as a favorite throughout his career (14-22-2 ATS, -23.0% ROI, per Action Network), and the Titans have a boosted home-field advantage because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass).

TE Rankings Scoring Downgrades For Week 7: Travis Kelce at Seahawks & Isaiah Likely at Texans

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the TEs."

This week the Chiefs are No. 21 in implied team total (20.0 points), and the Giants are No. 28 (16.75).

Downgrades warranted.

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) at Seahawks: The Seahawks have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and they have an amplified home-field advantage because they're outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). Additionally, the Chiefs could be without their OL bookends in LT Josh Simmons (back) and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion). Ordinarily, with No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) still uncertain and No. 2 WR Tyquan Thornton (ankle, IR) out, I'd think of Kelce as a fantasy favorite. But since Rice and Thornton exited in Week 4, Kelce hasn't experienced any sort of boost in production (4.9 fantasy points per game, 6-68-0 receiving, 9 targets) or usage (72% route rate, 55 Utilization Score). QB Patrick Mahomes as a road dog has been an all-time moneymaker (10-1-1 ATS, 72.3% ROI), but the matchup is brutal: The Seahawks are No. 2 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-37.0%).

Isaiah Likely (Giants) at Texans: QB J.J. McCarthy came on in relief of Jameis Winston last week, and given how he played in just a little over a quarter of action (243 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT with 2-26-0 rushing), he has been named the Week 7 starter. Here's the issue: Last year, McCarthy proved himself to be one of the worst QBs in the space-time continuum (57.6% completion rate, 5.4 AY/A) … and I have zero faith in OC Matt Nagy to help out McCarthy with a scheme advantage. Likely has played like a Pro Bowler this year (15.0 fantasy points per game, 39-383-5 receiving, 59 targets, 98 Utilization Score), and the Texans are likely to be without S/CB Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and FS Reed Blankenship (concussion) … but the balance of probability suggests that the switch from the YOLO Winston to the discarded McCarthy will not benefit Likely.

Notes

Week 7 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Bills, Jaguars, Commanders, and Chargers are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.