Matthew Berry's 2026 Draft Day Manifesto: The 7 Habits Of Highly Effective Drafters

The first fantasy football rankings you glance at.

The first mock draft.

The first text from your commissioner: “Who’s in this year?”

The first time half the internet overreacts to a third-string running back making one cut in August, convincing them he’s the next league winner.

The first time you say, “I’m not going to overthink it this year."

(Spoiler alert: You absolutely are.)

The first “this guy is in the best shape of his life” report.

The first message from the league chat that starts with, “Quick rules question …” and ends with a three-day-long argument.

The first time you let yourself think, “Maybe this is my year.”

Every season starts somewhere.

And for me, this one starts here.

With a first for me.

My first league was 1984. My first published column was 1999. My first time on national TV was 2005.

When you’ve been playing and discussing fantasy football as long as I have, firsts are hard to come by.

But this year … THIS YEAR … I’ll be damned if I don’t have a first.

For the first time in 27 years, I’m writing the Draft Day Manifesto on a website I helped build.

That sentence means more to me than I can explain.

But I’m going to try.

Over the past 27 years, this Manifesto has lived in different places.

Different websites.

Different logos.

Different editors.

Different bosses.

But the mission never changed.

Help people win their fantasy leagues.

Make them laugh a little.

Hopefully make them think a little.

And remind everyone that, as ridiculous and intense as this game can get, it’s supposed to be fun.

In a weird way, it feels less like I moved the Manifesto and more like I finally brought it home.

Because Fantasy Life isn’t just another place I work.

It’s the place we’ve been building for years.

The place where we can obsess over fantasy football the same way you do.

The place where we argue about RB38 like it actually matters.

(Which, let’s be honest … sometimes it does.)

Where analysis could be smart but not take itself too seriously.

Where statistics and storytelling could live in the same sentence.

Where winning mattered, but having fun mattered just a little bit more …

If we could build that place …

Then the Manifesto and ALL of my writing and rankings belonged there.

Not because the website matters.

Because you do.

This article has never been about where it was published.

It’s always been about the people reading it.

Some of you have been with me since the dial-up internet days and the OG TalentedMrRoto site.

Some of you found me at ESPN.

Some came along at NBC.

And some of you are reading your very first Draft Day Manifesto today.

Welcome, one and all.

I apologize in advance, because this is going to take a while. So take your shoes off, put your feet up and get comfortable. Can I get you a drink?

This article has always been about how to think.

How to attack a draft.

How to avoid the mistakes everyone else in your league makes every single year despite swearing they’ll never make them again.

How to prepare.

Because preparation is the only thing you actually control.

Look, you can’t control injuries. You can’t control touchdowns getting vultured. You can’t control your commissioner deciding that Tuesday at 6:17 PM is the perfect time to announce, “Hey guys … I think we should switch to two tight ends this year.”

You can’t control the fantasy gods deciding that your opponent’s defense should score four touchdowns in Week 15, because apparently you’ve done something terrible in a previous life.

What you can control …

… is showing up more prepared than everyone else.

And that’s what we are here to do. Both with this article and everything else we do at FantasyLife.com—make sure you are more prepared for everything that will undoubtedly come your way during the wackiness of the season we are about to start and, specifically for this article, on Draft Day.

For The Regulars, you’ll find plenty that’s familiar: my thoughts on roster construction, draft strategy, positional value, finding league winners, avoiding land mines, and generally trying to outsmart your friends without becoming the person everyone secretly hopes finishes last.

But there are plenty of new wrinkles this year as well. Updated research and data. New ways to approach roster building. And at least one new joke (note: that wasn’t it). And, of course, a shameless plug.

Which is usually for whatever company is paying me.

This year …

… it’s for the company I own.

So, honestly, it’s even more shameless.

But at least nobody can accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is.

Here’s the good news:

If you’re reading this, most of what you actually need is free.

First, sync your league for free.

Seriously.

It’s free.

If you want to take it even further, FantasyLife+ gives you customized rankings, Draft Champion mock drafts, premium tools and everything we’ve built to give you as many edges as possible. When you subscribe to FantasyLife+, my rankings become your rankings.

When you sync your league at Fantasy Life, you’ll get customized advice for your team, including from me. That’s right. Your league is unique, so we believe your advice should be too. Crazy, right?

That’s right—rankings, projections and more automatically adjust to your scoring settings instead of making you pretend your league is “standard” when it’s really a 14-team, five-point passing TD, three-flex, point-per-first-down, “my college roommate made these rules in 2014 and now nobody remembers why” monstrosity.

If you decide to subscribe, use promo code DDM for 10% off your first year.

And if you want me in your box every morning—wait, that came out wrong—if you want my free newsletter with everything you need for the day in fantasy football as a quick five-minute read—subscribe to the FREE Fantasy Life Newsletter that’ll show up in your inbox instead of relying on some social media algorithm that thinks you’d rather watch a raccoon stealing cat food than read fantasy football analysis. Honestly, the easiest way to make sure you never miss anything important and did I mention it’s free?

See? I told you it was shameless.

OK, plug over.

But while I am 100% sure you could predict that when I started writing for my own site I was gonna go whole hog on promotion, that’s probably the only thing you can predict.

A year ago, we had no idea that Matthew Stafford, entering his age-37 season and drafted outside the top-20 in most fantasy leagues, would lead the NFL in touchdown passes. That Sam Darnold, who went undrafted in plenty of one-quarterback leagues, would throw for over 4,000 yards and finish with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes. That Trevor Lawrence, who many fantasy managers wouldn’t even roster in August, would finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback. That Trey McBride would outscore every tight end by nearly 90 PPR points from Week 6 through the end of the fantasy season … and the second-highest scoring tight end over that stretch would be … Kyle Pitts. Or that Lamar Jackson wouldn’t even finish as a top-15 fantasy quarterback.

And that’s why I love this time of year.

Because for one brief, beautiful moment …

Nobody’s sleeper has disappointed.

Nobody’s first-round pick has pulled a hamstring.

Nobody has rage-dropped the guy who becomes a league winner six weeks later.

Every draft strategy still works.

Every roster still looks good.

Every manager still thinks this is finally the year.

Hope has a perfect record.

But whether this is your first Manifesto …

Or your 27th …

Thank you.

Thank you for reading.

Thank you for arguing with me.

Thank you for trusting me.

Thank you for finding me here.

And thank you for making this silly little game a part of your lives every fall.

Because I still can’t believe I get to be a part of it, too.

Hope has a perfect record.

The challenge is …

Hope isn’t a strategy.

Preparation is.

So welcome, friends old and new, and tell your friends you’re about to read the 21st edition of the often imitated, never duplicated, heart-stopping, knowledge-dropping, fantasy football ADP-rocking, sleeper-finding, value-mining, draft-day-defining, mock-draft-shaking, strategy-making, earth-quaking, handcuff-taking, Springsteen-stealing, justifying, death-defying, legendary DRAFT. DAY. MANIFESTO!

Here, right freaking here, baby, are The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Drafters:

Habit 1: They Spend a Ton of Time Preparing

Draft day mirrors many aspects of life, but perhaps none more than this: What you put into it is what you get out of it. And in drafts, just as in life, it’s helpful to know exactly what you are preparing for. Prepping for a colonoscopy, for example, is significantly different than prepping for a fantasy draft (at least in most leagues).

That starts with studying the rules and, more importantly, figuring out the best ways to exploit said rules. What’s the scoring? The scoring obviously impacts the type of players you target. Is it half-point PPR or full PPR? Derrick Henry will be an early-round pick in almost any format, but the gap between him and elite pass-catching RBs like Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs is much smaller in half-point PPR than it is in full. Is there premium scoring for tight ends? Points for first downs? For long punts? Don’t laugh. I played in a punter league once. And crushed it like a grape, thank you very much (btw, it’s still the only championship I’ve ever won where I spent Sunday afternoons screaming, ‘PIN HIM INSIDE THE TEN!’”).

The point is, every league has quirks. Highly effective managers don’t complain about them—they exploit them.

What’s your roster size? How do you acquire free-agent players in your league? If it’s a free-agent budget, you can be a bit riskier on draft day because you will have a shot at every player if you need to replace someone. But if it’s a waiver system, it will be tougher to get the hot free agents, especially if the rules allow someone to sit on the top pick for multiple weeks. So you’ll need to focus a little more on depth during the draft.

Does your league have an IR spot? If so, how many? Being able to use IR spots allows you to take more chances on talented but injury-prone players. Or players who are already hurt. For example, some leagues allow players who have an “OUT” designation to be placed in the IR spot, which means that if you draft Malik Nabers or George Kittle and they’re not ready to go by Week 1, you can place them into your IR slot and pick up an additional player. How about a spot for suspended players? Last year, both Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison began the season serving suspensions. If you played in a league with an NA spot, the opportunity cost for drafting those players was lower because you could’ve stashed them until they returned as opposed to having to tie up a bench spot for multiple weeks.

And as we saw with Rice last season and Alvin Kamara in 2024, utilizing that roster flexibility can lead to outsized returns. Just make sure that if you draft players who may not be available or at full health in the early weeks of the season, you have a plan to keep your team competitive until they return to your lineup.

One of the biggest edges in fantasy football isn’t evaluating talent. It’s understanding roster flexibility. Two managers can draft the same injured player, but only one has built a roster that can actually afford to wait.

All of these questions lead to roster construction, which will be a key part of your draft-day success. Reconciling how players are acquired during the season with roster size and any roster restrictions you may have (a limit on the number of RBs, for example) will help you as you start to evaluate players. Can you fairly easily find solid production at various positions during the year via the waiver wire? If so, you can roster more “fliers.” Conversely, in deeper leagues where the free-agent pool is scarce, you’ll need some solid middle-of-the-road types to plug in during bye weeks and when injuries hit.

Just remember, you’re not just drafting players. You’re also having to draft future problems. Bye weeks. Injuries. Flex decisions. Waiver claims. The best draft often isn’t just the one with the most upside. It’s the one that creates the best ability to deal with inevitable issues later.

Do I have more questions to consider? Good question. I do. Really? Yes.

When do your playoffs start? How many teams make it? How are Week 14 byes going to affect your fantasy playoffs?

Effective drafters also account for what platform they are playing on, because wherever you play, the draft is highly influenced by the default rankings in the draft room. People panic during a draft and often take the highest-ranked player available. Having a set of rankings you trust (SHAMELESS PLUG! You can find all of Fantasy Life’s updated rankings here) and believe in and then comparing them to the default ranks of whatever site you play on will help you identify which players are going too early, which players are going too low, what market inefficiencies there are and how you can exploit them.

Average Draft Position isn’t telling you where a player should be drafted. It’s telling you where everyone else is making mistakes.

One of the biggest edges in fantasy football isn’t finding information nobody else has. It’s understanding where your room is likely to make predictable mistakes.

Because if you’re looking for one of the biggest edges in fantasy football … it’s hiding in plain sight.

As luck would have it, our ADP tool that shows up-to-the-minute ADP, including recent risers and fallers, across every possible site you might play on, can be of help here.

For example, look at these current ADP differences …

ESPN ADP vs. Yahoo ADP Differences

Justin Herbert: 117.6 vs. 64.6
Caleb Williams: 96.3 vs. 72.6
Chase Brown: 27 vs. 16.7
D’Andre Swift: 70.1 vs. 52
Chuba Hubbard: 92.1 vs. 65.2
Tee Higgins: 52.4 vs. 35.6
Carnell Tate: 63 vs. 75.8
Luther Burden: 76 vs. 57.8
Michael Pittman: 87.8 vs. 121.4
Christian Watson: 96.2 vs. 73.1
Tucker Kraft: 108.5 vs. 59.5
Dalton Kincaid: 146.8 vs. 92.5

Now, yes, this ADP is affected by several factors and will change quickly as more drafts get completed. Most ESPN leagues also use full-PPR scoring, whereas Yahoo is primarily half-PPR. But believe me, that difference doesn’t come close to explaining the nearly 40-pick gap in Michael Pittman’s ADP. And these types of discrepancies exist across all positions and player archetypes. Just think about how differently you would build your team if you could draft Justin Herbert in the 10th round instead of the 6th? Or how much stronger your roster would look if you could add a potential breakout WR such as Luther Burden or Carnell Tate at a nearly 20-pick discount?

Use this information to your advantage and ensure you’re not reaching for players you don’t need to be.

And one more related tip. If it’s a league where you know the other managers, you can add in notations about the tendencies of other drafters (this one always reaches for young, buzzy players, this other one stockpiles quarterbacks, this one beat me in the league championship last season by 0.4 points so during the draft, say you’re getting up to use the bathroom but actually go outside and slash his tires, et cetera, etc.).

Finally, mock draft as much as possible, especially once you know what spot you are picking from. Have some time before an appointment? Mock draft. Stuck in traffic? Mock draft. Baby not coming out quickly no matter how hard you push? Mock draft. What happens if you go with Brock Bowers or Trey McBride in the second round? What about a “Zero RB” or “Hero RB” approach? What if you go heavy at RB and start your draft with 3-4 running backs? What if you take Josh Allen early? What happens if the stack you want gets sniped one pick before? The more options you play with to see how your team turns out, the more prepared you will be when the real draft happens, and you’ll be much more comfortable adjusting on the fly.

Preparation doesn’t eliminate surprises. It eliminates panic.

Habit 2: They Identify the Relative Depth at Every Position

Having an opinion on every potential player is great, but you also need to understand every player’s value relative to every other player—and the depth of that position—as it relates to your roster needs. QB is deep so you can wait to take one, you say? Not if you play in a 14-team Superflex league. Then they start going quickly. Like me when prepping for a colonoscopy. That’s right. Two colonoscopy jokes. Will there be a third? Only time will tell.

Just understand this: Knowing which players you like is player evaluation. Knowing when you need to draft them—and what you’ll be giving up when you do—is draft strategy.

A position isn’t deep or shallow in a vacuum. It’s deep or shallow relative to how many players at that position your league is required to start.

That is especially important because people repeat statements like “quarterback is deep” without accounting for whether a league starts 10 quarterbacks, 14 quarterbacks or 28 quarterbacks.

When you draft, you’re not just collecting as many good players as possible. You’re constructing a roster with finite resources. You have only so many spots, and you need to understand how easy or hard it will be to replace players during the season.

The question isn’t just, "how much do I like this player?" It’s, "what happens if I pass on this position now?" If you can get 90% of the production three rounds later, waiting makes sense. If the position falls off a cliff before your next pick, it doesn’t.

Drafting is the art of knowing where you can afford to wait—and where waiting will kill you.

So with that in mind, here’s a quick overview of how I see the positions this year:

Quarterback

In the past couple of seasons, the elite tier of QBs typically included three to four names. This year, Josh Allen stands alone as a one-man tier. He typically goes at least a round earlier than Lamar Jackson and over two rounds earlier than any other QB. And I get why—his combination of upside and consistency is unmatched at the position. Still, at his current price, I expect to have very little Josh Allen this season.

Simply put, I think the opportunity cost at that point of the draft is higher than the gap between Allen and the next tier of QBs. Lamar Jackson, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts have all shown to have comparable single-season upside and are often going multiple rounds after Allen. Ultimately, the difference between QB1 and QB5 can matter. But if the cost of buying that difference is passing on an every-week RB or WR while comparable quarterbacks remain available five rounds later, the roster-level advantage can disappear.

If I can grab a QB from that group in Round 5 or Round 6, I love the value there. But if those names start flying off the board earlier, there’s no need to panic because the position is so deep this season that the QB6-12 range is filled with players I’m still very excited to draft.

In fact, I really don’t see a huge gap between Caleb Williams, who I have ranked as my QB7, and Bo Nix, who I have as QB15. That’s basically a tier for me. So, if I miss out on that second tier after Allen, I’m more than comfortable waiting for whichever name from that low-end QB1 group falls to me. In some drafts it might be Dak Prescott or Brock Purdy, in others it’s Trevor Lawrence or Patrick Mahomes. You know, that scrappy sleeper Patrick Mahomes. For me, QB7 through QB15 is basically one large tier. Once I enter that range, I’m less concerned with being first to choose and more interested in being last.

I’m also fully back in on Kyler Murray (never wrong, dammit, just early), who’s currently going outside the top 15 at the position on both ESPN and Yahoo. And if you play in deeper or Superflex formats, Tyler Shough and Jordan Love are two of my favorite sleepers. Finally, I do want some exposure to Malik Willis and his massive rushing ceiling, but I have enough concerns about the Dolphins offense that I would prefer to do it in leagues where I’m not locked in to starting him every single week.

In one-QB leagues, I’ll pay for Allen only when the room gives me a discount. Otherwise, I’m attacking the depth. In Superflex, I’m attacking the scarcity.

Running Back

Highlighted by Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson going as the first two players off the board in almost every draft, the top of the position is extremely strong. I’m expecting bounceback seasons from Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton. I love the landing spot for Kenneth Walker. Chase Brown has quietly been a reliable RB1 since the middle of the 2024 season. Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry carry some obvious age risk, but the ceiling on both is still high enough that I don’t want to completely fade either.

As in seasons past, I’m comfortable utilizing a “Hero” or “Anchor” RB strategy with any of the top 12-14 RBs in my rankings, and I have really liked builds where I’m able to grab two players from that group with my first three picks. The purpose of an Anchor RB isn’t simply to draft one good running back. It’s to buy enough stability at a fragile position that you can spend the middle rounds attacking value elsewhere.

The RB2 range is where I tend to get more selective. There's a lot of projectable touches for the RBs in this range, but the drop-off in talent makes most of them highly dependent on their situation for value. And the tier is quite large. I don’t mind the drop-off from Travis Etienne to D’Andre Swift or David Montgomery if it gets me an elite TE or another WR. In the RB3 range, there’s a trio of young RBs in Bhayshul Tuten, TreVeyon Henderson and Jadarian Price who are ideal RB3 targets in shallower leagues, or formats that start only two WRs. In deeper leagues, or when utilizing a zero or hero RB build, Jaylen Warren and Rhamondre Stevenson offer a solid floor along with added contingent value.

Once in the RB4 range, the most attractive picks are players who have both stand-alone value AND the potential for an outsized role due to injury (Blake Corum, Kyle Monangai, etc.). League scoring also plays a factor in this range of the draft. For example, Kenneth Gainwell and Rachaad White are far more appealing targets in full-PPR leagues, while Chris Rodriguez, Jordan Mason and Jacory Croskey-Merritt all gain value in more touchdown-heavy formats.

And as you get into the final rounds, high-value insurance options (Brian Robinson, Tank Bigsby, Ray Davis) are still the best way to fill out your bench. Finally, as an overall approach to the position, you want to target volume and high-value touches (receptions + red-zone opportunities). Remember, RB talent matters, but it’s far less correlated to fantasy production than at any of the other positions.

As you evaluate running backs, remember not all projected touches are equal. A back can project for 16 touches because his team genuinely wants him on the field in every situation—or because we’re assuming an extremely fragile depth chart holds together. Those are different bets.

Carries between the 20s keep a back busy. Targets and goal-line carries make him valuable. Volume matters. But fantasy-friendly volume matters more. Six targets can be worth more than 12 carries, and two carries from the three-yard line can be worth more than an entire drive’s worth of work between the 20s.

RB talent matters, but it’s far less correlated to fantasy production than at any of the other positions. At wide receiver, talent earns opportunity. At running back, sometimes opportunity is simply the last healthy man standing.

Wide Receiver

I currently have six WRs in my first round and Drake London inside my top 15, yet the depth at the top of the position feels a little underwhelming considering how excited we were about Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas and Ladd McConkey heading into last season. I love the fit for A.J. Brown in New England, so he’s a target in the late second, and Nico Collins, George Pickens and Rashee Rice are the best options at the 2/3 turn once the top-12 RBs are off the board.

DeVonta Smith is one of my favorite picks in Round 3, and once he, Chris Olave and Zay Flowers are gone, I view the next tier of WRs as relatively flat. For example, I can easily see Mike Evans having a comparable season to Tee Higgins, even though I have them ranked 12 spots apart in my WR ranks. McConkey, Jaylen Waddle and Luther Burden are some of my favorite picks from that WR2 tier, although I’ve noticed where they go within that range differs significantly from draft to draft.

The WR3 range has many big-play receivers with upside, but most lack the weekly consistency to be reliable starters. Christian Watson is my top target from that group, although I also want to make sure I get some exposure to rookies Jordyn Tyson and Carnell Tate in this range. Once in the WR40-50 range, there are still plenty of receivers with decent target projection, so here I tend to focus on players who have strong peripherals and could be looking at increased roles (i.e., Josh Downs and Jayden Reed).

In standard-sized leagues, I’ll generally always want to have at least five WRs from the top 45 or so in my rankings, which then allows me the flexibility to use my final picks on some high-upside dart throws. Unless I’m playing in a very deep league, I always prefer my WR6 or WR7 to be a high-variance option like KC Concepcion or Rashid Shaheed, as opposed to a high-floor option like Romeo Doubs or Khalil Shakir. Because the job of your WR6 isn’t to score nine points while sitting on your bench, it’s to become a player you’d be excited to start. Give me the player who might become a weekly difference-maker over the player whose best-case scenario is making a difficult bye-week decision slightly less unpleasant. Floor matters in your lineup. Ceiling matters on your bench.

Tight End

The TE position is undergoing a glow-up. From Tight End University to random TE11s getting married at Madison Square Garden, the position is definitely on the rise. At this rate, by 2028 every tight end will have a podcast, a clothing line and a destination golf tournament sponsored by an electrolyte company. The influx of young athletic TEs into the league in recent seasons has made the top of the position a lot more fun for fantasy.

In fact, six of the top seven tight ends in my rankings right now are 25 or younger. Trey McBride and Brock Bowers remain the top two options, and I’m comfortable taking either late in the second round in the right build.

Given the opportunity cost at that point in the draft, however, I often prefer to take Colston Loveland in Round 4 or Tyler Warren in Round 5 or 6. The mid-range to low-end TE1 bucket always has intriguing options, but historically this tier also carries a lot of risk. I’m very high on Tucker Kraft this year, so I love targeting him in this range, especially when you can often get him as the seventh or eighth tight end off the board.

Especially with tight end, you have to consider not just the position scarcity but also how it relates to your roster. A tight end who scores 15 points per game may be more valuable than a receiver who scores 17 if the replacement tight end scores eight and the replacement receiver scores 13.

Many will see Kyle Pitts and Harold Fannin as the safer options here, but I don’t believe either reaches the same production they had last season. Once you start to get outside the top 10, I really want to focus on upside rather than floor. Ask yourself, which players going in this range have the highest ceiling if things break their way? For example, if Dalton Kincaid runs 75% of the routes this season instead of 50%, I believe he has the skills to put up comparable numbers to Loveland or Warren.

Or what if Isaiah Likely is the Giants' top pass-catching option until Malik Nabers is fully healthy? Can’t you see him catching 70+ passes in that scenario? Now compare that to players like Jake Ferguson or Mark Andrews, who are both far more likely to finish in that TE8-14 range from a probability standpoint, but don’t have access to the same high-end ceiling.

When drafting tight ends late, focus on who can be a real difference maker at the position, because in the majority of standard-sized leagues, players like Juwan Johnson, Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz will always be available on the waiver wire. And for those who play in formats where this isn’t the case, Chig Okonkwo, Gunnar Helm, Greg Dulcich and Terrance Ferguson are some of my favorite deep sleepers at the position this season.

The point of all this isn’t that you must draft a specific position in a specific round. It’s that every position has moments in the draft where the value changes. Sometimes there’s a cliff. Sometimes there’s a plateau. Sometimes there’s a player you like, but five players you like almost as much will be available later. Highly effective drafters recognize those moments and build around them.

Habit 3: They Abide by the One Big Secret of Fantasy Football

I don’t know the secret of life. I suspect it has something to do with having a full head of hair, unfortunately. But I do know the secret of fantasy football. And it’s this: At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about managing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. That’s it. It’s that simple. From the time you read this article until the end of your season, every single thing you do needs to lead back to that very simple, but rarely followed approach.

Every draft pick, waiver move, potential trade, start/sit decision and so on. Everything. I can’t predict the future. Neither can you. Neither can anyone else. But you don’t have to predict the future. You just have to make better bets on it than everyone else.

And you do that by managing risk, giving yourself the best odds to succeed every week, understanding the range of possible outcomes, making the best call you can in the moment and letting the chips fall where they may.

Josh Allen has finished as a top-2 QB in PPG in each of the past six seasons. In each of those seasons, he’s had at least 25 pass TDs and 6 rush TDs. So what’s most likely to happen this season?

David Montgomery has ranked top-10 in goal-to-go rush attempts in six of his seven career seasons. Last season, Woody Marks converted only 1 of his 12 goal-to-go rush attempts. What’s most likely to happen this season?

Chris Rodriguez has 6 receptions in 35 career games. He’s failed to see a single target in 28 of those games. What’s most likely to happen this season?

Amon-Ra St. Brown has four straight seasons with at least a 27% target share. He’s caught over 100 passes in each of those seasons. What’s most likely to happen this season?

Alec Pierce has led the NFL in yards per reception and average depth of target in each of the past two seasons. During that time, 62% of his targets have come on passes of at least 15 air yards. What’s most likely to happen this season?

Now, most likely to happen doesn’t mean it will happen. It just means it’s much more likely to happen than not. And that’s all we can ask for. If you consistently play the odds, you’ll win a lot more than you won’t. And when you are evaluating players before and during the draft, when you are building your team, that’s what you need to do.

Your job isn’t to be right every time. Your job is to make decisions that will be right more often than they’re wrong.

Which is why we talk so much about preparation. Preparation doesn’t eliminate surprises. It gives you a better process when they arrive.

Just remember once again: At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about managing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis.

What’s most likely to happen?

Habit 4: They Use Rankings Flexibly and in Context

Whether they are your own, someone else’s, an average of multiple people or even just the default ones in the draft room, when you draft, you are going to have a set of rankings. They are certainly helpful, but they should be used only as a guideline, and more so in the early parts of the draft. Rankings are a map, not turn-by-turn directions.

I say this as someone who spends an inordinate amount of time on his rankings. I have two teenage girls who spend a lot of time in the bathroom getting ready … but I still spend more time on my rankings. I tuck my rankings in at night and take them on family vacations. I’m very proud of my rankings. I love them. Yet I know that no rankings are going to nail end-of-season value, especially if you consider weekly variance.

Rankings tell you how someone values players in a vacuum. Drafts do not take place in a vacuum.

And once you get your first five players, it really becomes about roster construction based on what positions you need to fill, how much risk you’ve already taken and how the draft is playing out, taking into account all the factors we’ve already discussed.

Put another way, rankings tell you which groceries are best. Roster construction tells you whether you’re making lasagna or pancakes. At some point, blindly taking the highest-ranked ingredient gives you a very strange dinner.

I swear this made sense to me at 5:00 AM when I wrote it.

Anyways, take Jameson Williams and Tetairoa McMillan as the example here. I currently have McMillan ranked as my WR21 and Williams as my WR25, four spots apart. In my overall rankings, I have them only seven spots apart.

At Fantasy Life, my friend Dwain McFarland has McMillan projected for 184 points and Williams for 171 points in half-PPR scoring. Over a full season, that difference comes out to less than a point per game.

If all you looked at were the projections, you might reasonably conclude that these are essentially interchangeable players. They aren’t.

And last season, Williams finished as the WR18 in PPG (12.9), just slightly ahead of McMillan, who was the WR21 at 12.4 PPG.

But let’s take a closer look at how their 2025 seasons played out.

McMillan was Carolina’s clear WR1. He averaged a 25% target share and scored at least 6 half-PPR points in 14 of his 17 games. Yet while he showed a consistently high floor, the ceiling was limited. He had only three games with over 15 points and finished as a top-10 WR only once all season.

Williams had similar production over the course of the full season, but he got there in a very different way. His role in the offense was far less consistent, as he failed to reach a 20% target share in nearly 60% of his games. He also had more than twice as many games with under 6 points (7) as McMillan. On the flip side, his weekly ceiling was much higher. He finished as a top-10 WR five different times, including three 20-point games.

So which WR ended up being a better pick? Well, I guess it depends, right? In a shallower league, the week-winning upside of Williams feels more valuable, but in those formats he’s also less likely to be treated as a must-start player. McMillan’s floor, meanwhile, provided a great stabilizer in deeper leagues or in a Guillotine League™.

I used McMillan/Williams as the example here because the numbers lined up nicely for two relatively high-end receivers, but you can apply this same framework of using rankings within the context of team building to players going in all areas of the draft and across multiple positions. A player’s points work best if your roster is built to maximize them.

Let’s look at David Montgomery and Bhayshul Tuten as another comparison point. Both players are in a similar ADP range, but they’re very different running backs. Montgomery is a bet on role. He’s not very explosive and won’t contribute much as a pass catcher, but he’s going to see 15+ touches a game and be the primary red-zone and goal-line option on what should be at least a competent Texans offense. It’s highly unlikely Montgomery delivers a top-10 season, but he’s a safe bet as a low-end RB2 who can get you 10-14 points most weeks.

Tuten, on the other hand, is a bet on talent and opportunity. He’s an athletic back with great speed and good pass-catching skills. And his main competition for touches is currently banged-up Chris Rodriguez, who’s totaled 974 scrimmage yards and 6 receptions across three NFL seasons. If Tuten can emerge as the top option in this backfield and see 12+ rushes a game along with a double-digit target share, he could deliver a season like what we saw from Bucky Irving as a rookie in 2024.

Now, is that the likeliest outcome? Absolutely not. It’s totally plausible that Rodriguez maintains an early-down role all season and is also the primary goal-line option, while LeQuint Allen continues to operate as the third-down back. In that scenario, Tuten is probably limited to 8-10 touches a game and finishes outside the top 30 at the position.

So, unless you have a firm stance on which player you think will be better, it comes down to roster fit. If you’ve already drafted one or two high-end RBs, taking a gamble on Tuten as your RB3 and hoping he can turn into a reliable flex and potential league winner is an appealing option. Conversely, if you’re very thin at RB and need to find projectable points, Montgomery is by far the safer choice. Overall, targeting high-variance players such as Tuten is a good strategy in almost any league, so long as you have proper roster balance.

Habit 5: They Focus on Winning Weeks

It’s very simple, but so many people forget that fantasy football is a weekly game. Let’s go back to the Jameson Williams example one more time. The high-scoring weeks were great, but consider that these were his weekly finishes over the first five games of the season: WR61, WR10, WR55, WR62, WR89. He finished as WR13 in Week 6, but how many teams actually started him that week, considering that he had failed to finish as a top-50 WR in four of his previous five games? And if you missed that Week 6 performance and were eager to start Williams for his next game, guess what? He scored ZERO points in Week 7! So, could you feel great starting him in his next game after that when he finished as WR14?

And that’s the crucial part. It’s not enough to have players who score a lot. It’s important to know WHEN to start them. A spike week only helps you if the player is actually in your lineup when it happens.

Starting your CeeDee Lambs (or Eights, as I call him) of the world is easy. In theory, your first five picks should all be CeeDee Lambs—the players you will start every week, barring injury or a bye.

But what about the rest of your lineup? Once I get to the middle of my drafts, I no longer seek players who are consistent high-floor performers. Because they’re all gone. At that point in drafts, I want players who could wind up as an elite option at a position in any given week.

I used to call this the “Never James White” Rule.

James White was a solid fantasy football player during his peak. From 2016-2019, White was the RB25 in PPG. But for those playing in standard-sized leagues, James White never had as much fantasy value as that ranking would lead you to believe. The reason being, he very rarely had 20-point games that could win you a week. It was just a consistent stream of 10-to-12-point games that added up over time. James White hasn’t played in the NFL since 2021. I don’t know what he does now. But I like to think he runs a construction company somewhere and that they specialize in building homes with very low ceilings.

Now compare that to the long list of insurance RBs that I have used to make this point in previous seasons (Zach Charbonnet, Alexander Mattison, Khalil Herbert, Tyler Allgeier, etc.). Stashing those players on your bench for most of the season may be frustrating, but the potential payoff is absolutely worth it.

This is why I say rankings are just a loose guideline. Season-long rankings cannot fully measure how useful a player will be to your lineup in specific weeks.

To give a “player you draft in later rounds” example for this season, consider Jonathon Brooks, Tyrone Tracy, Isiah Pacheco and Brian Robinson. Brooks is coming off a second ACL tear, but he was a very intriguing college prospect and the health reports on him thus far have been positive. We already saw Chuba Hubbard lose his starting job last season, which makes Brooks one of the only late-round RBs with a path to take over his backfield based on performance, not just injury.

Everyone has Cam Skattebo penciled in as the clear starter in New York, but given the severity of his injury, I certainly think it’s possible he doesn’t look fully like himself early on. Not to mention his physical playing style could lead to increased injury risk moving forward. So Tracy—who has averaged 13.7 PPG in his career when playing at least 60% of snaps—makes for an appealing insurance option.

The same holds true for Pacheco and Robinson, who would both likely see most of the touches in their backfields if Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson were forced to miss any time.

As you are filling out your bench, you need to view it in the context of the quality of players available on the waiver wire. Now, don’t go wild. Drafting a high number of boom-or-bust players makes sense only if you know you can easily find viable production on the waiver wire during bye weeks or in case of injury.

The shallower the league and the stronger the waiver wire, the less valuable replaceable bench production becomes—and the more aggressively you can chase upside.

Conversely:

The deeper the league, the more value there is in simply rostering someone who receives dependable touches or routes.

In other words, the waiver wire is effectively part of your bench. The more production available there, the less of it you need to store on draft day. As my mom always said to me growing up, “Don’t use a valuable bench spot to store something you can find for free on Tuesday.”

One positive is that it won’t cost much draft-day capital for these upside types. They generally will be ranked much lower in pre-draft season-long rankings than they will be ranked in the weeks when you know you’ll need to use them.

That’s why I don’t want to reach for players like Jacory Croskey-Merritt—who is confined to an early-down role and competing with multiple other RBs for touches—when Tracy, Pacheco, Robinson, Tank Bigsby and Ray Davis all come cheaper, despite being one injury away from becoming reliable weekly starters. “Bill” will have big weeks, but it’s going to be tough to predict when. Whereas we know if anything were to happen to Bijan Robinson, Brian Robinson would become a must-start.

Fantasy football doesn’t award trophies for the most points sitting on your bench. It doesn’t award them for having the most accurate preseason rankings. And it definitely doesn’t award them because your Round 9 pick finished RB31.

You need players you know when you can confidently start. Players whose roles can grow. Players who can turn an ordinary lineup into the best lineup in your league for one week.

Because you don’t have to win the season all at once.

You just have to keep winning the week in front of you.

Habit 6: They Are Adaptable and Trust Themselves Above All Others

Obviously, you should be watching, reading and listening to as much as possible before you draft, and that means all summer. Hey, there’s no offseason! (Technically there is an offseason. We have just chosen to ignore it, just like our families.) This will help you have an opinion on every player. You don’t need to memorize every stat or break down every play, but just have a general sense of whether you are “pro” or “con” the player and what general value you give him. Because, as Mike Tyson likes to say, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Now, hopefully no one is getting punched in the mouth at your fantasy draft. Except for Bob. Bob’s a pain in the ass and deserves it, am I right? But the point is this: something unexpected WILL happen. There can be extreme runs, and there can be drafters who have wildly different values than you, so players you didn’t expect to be available are there for the taking. And there may be someone drafting in front of you using your exact rankings they printed from Fantasy Life and laughing as they draft the player you want while commenting, “Hahaha do you LOVE this pick, Berry?!”

That last one may be specific to only me. And that’s why Bob got punched in the mouth at my draft last year.

But highly effective drafters are the ones who don’t enter with a specific hard-and-fast strategy. By doing the work and being prepared, by mock drafting like it’s your job, by being flexible, you’ll be able to adapt on the fly, and you won’t let your draft be dictated by anyone or anything but you.

There are two bad forms of rigidity:

Strategic rigidity: “I decided I’m going Zero RB, so I’m passing on a running back who fell two rounds.”
Ranking rigidity: “This player is one spot higher, so I must draft him regardless of roster or tiers.”

The purpose of the Manifesto is for you to prepare for decisions. It is not to make those decisions before the draft begins.

Don’t mock the same opening over and over until you create the team you want. Practice what happens when the player you want is gone, when a position dries up early and when unexpected value falls into your lap.

Go into every draft knowing what you believe, what you value and where the positional cliffs are. Then pay attention. A draft is a conversation. Every pick changes what the room is telling you.

Listen to everyone.

Trust yourself.

And be willing to change your mind.

Habit 7: They Approach the Draft as Just the First Step Toward Success

Just because draft day is the most important day, that doesn’t mean it’s the only important day. You don’t have to win the league during your draft. In fact, it’s unlikely that you will. If your fantasy football season is a building under construction, then the draft is the foundation. If there’s a run on quarterbacks in a 1QB league, instead of forcing it and reaching early for a guy in the tier below, grab another wide receiver. Another lower-tier QB will still be there in a round, so grab the WR and give yourself some surplus so you have something to trade (assuming you play in one of those leagues where people actually trade and don’t treat every offer as if you’ve asked for their banking password).

And this goes with what I was talking about in terms of not sweating rankings or ADP too much and going for upside, because you’re likely dropping some of these guys on the way to glory anyway. Last year, Matthew Stafford (the MVP!), Kenneth Gainwell, Wan’Dale Robinson, Alec Pierce, Harold Fannin Jr. and Juwan Johnson were all waiver wire pickups. Jaxson Dart, another in-season add, was the QB6 in PPG after taking over as the starter. Happens every year.

That does not mean the late rounds don’t matter. It means you should not become emotionally attached to getting those picks right because there will be significant roster turnover over the course of a season.

And remember, sometimes a winning waiver pickup is one you only need for a couple weeks. Rico Dowdle saw minimal usage over the first month of the season, but when Chuba Hubbard missed Weeks 5 and 6 with a calf injury, Dowdle delivered back-to-back 30-point games. Now Dowdle parlayed those performances into a larger role moving forward and remained a viable fantasy option, but even if you only used him during the stretch Hubbard was out, he was a literal week winner.

Or how about Michael Wilson? Thrust into a larger role following an injury to Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson went on to average 26.0 PPG and nearly 120 receiving yards when Harrison was out of the lineup. After entering 2025 with only one career game with 16+ fantasy points, Wilson ended up reaching that number in six of his final eight games.

Wilson didn’t suddenly become a different human being when Harrison got hurt. His opportunity changed, and fantasy value changed with it.

Your fantasy season will be a constant work in progress, so understand that as you construct your team on draft day it’s not just about acquiring players in the draft, and later via free agency and trade, but ultimately how you use them. In-season roster decision-making will be crucial for you to get that championship. But that’s a story for “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective In-Season Managers.”

If you’ve read this far, thank you. You’re hardcore and one of us. Much respect.

Now, go do a mock draft in our free fantasy football mock draft simulator! Or watch one of our YouTube videos. Or read some articles. Because right now, this moment in time … this one glorious moment, no one has suffered a season-ending injury … no first-round pick has tweaked a hamstring … your league hasn’t erupted into a four-day argument over whether someone’s trade should be vetoed …

The sun shines brightly.

Every team is undefeated.

Every draft is an A.

Every championship is possible.

Hope has a perfect record.

It’s good to be home.