Quarterback Tiers For Fantasy Football 2026: Will Jayden Daniels Challenge For High-End QB1 Status?

Following a data-driven approach and a little common sense, it is time to evaluate the 2026 QB landscape for fantasy football. After reading this article, you will be able to group players based on data that has historically been important for QBs.

We will discuss which players offer league-winning upside, and later-round sleepers who could pay significant dividends if you decide to wait at the position.

Quarterback Tiers Methodology

This article will group players into tiers based on the following criteria. I broke down all of these and why they matter here.

Fantasy points per game (PPG)
Historical production passing and rushing
Experience: Number of years in the league
Offensive quality: Scheme and supporting cast

Definitions:

WAR = Wins above replacement (based on 14-game fantasy regular season)
WAR Over Expected = Wins above replacement vs. historical ADP
PPG Over Expected = Points per game over expected vs. historical ADP
ADP = aggregate across multiple sites

2026 Quarterback Tiers For Fantasy Football

Tier 1: Elite Dual-Threat QB1s

Josh Allen | Bills

Season: 9 (Late Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 23.1, 22.3, 21.5
Archetype: Dual Threat

Allen leads all QBs in fantasy points per game over the last three seasons (22.3), finishing QB1, QB2 and QB1 while carrying ADPs of 20, 23 and 21. Despite the premium cost, he has consistently delivered.

Points per game over expected based on fantasy football ADP:

2023: +2.4
2024: +2.5
2025: +2.1

In standard 10-team ESPN leagues where 40% of teams make the playoffs, Allen has exceeded expectations by at least 18 percentage points each season—a clear league-winning impact from an early-round pick.

He has also generated +1.6, +1.8 and +1.2 wins above replacement (WAR) over expectation versus ADP. While RBs and WRs in that range may offer theoretical upside, they come with far greater uncertainty.

With passing production declining league-wide (225 YPG in 2025, lowest since 2008), Allen’s rushing remains a major edge. Rushing fantasy production is significantly more predictive year-over-year than passing, and Allen has posted 8.4, 7.8 and 8.9 rushing PPG while handling 40%, 37% and 38% of team carries inside the five—resulting in 15, 12 and 14 rushing TDs.

If passing rebounds, Allen has proven ceiling outcomes (2020–2022: 19.4, 17.1, 17.7 passing PPG ranks of 5th, 9th, 3rd). He has also remained efficient under Joe Brady in passing fantasy points per dropback without pressure (0.52, 6th in 2024; 0.50, 11th in 2025), which is the most predictive fantasy passing stat over the last five seasons.

Brady (now HC) continues to call plays after run-leaning seasons (DBOE: -4%, -3%) but offsets that with elite play design (30% play action, 59% motion vs. 25%/52% league averages).

Buffalo added DJ Moore (YPRR: 1.44, 1.22) and expects a healthier Dalton Kincaid. Moore has been in decline over the last two years with 1.44 and 1.22 yards per route run (YPRR), but he has a chance to help add a spark to the passing game.

Bottom Line: Allen is the QB1, worthy of late Round 2–early Round 3 (redraft) or late Round 3 (best ball) with a 2.6 WAR projection and unmatched consistency.

Lamar Jackson | Ravens

Season: 9 (Late Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 20.7, 25.3, 16.3
Archetype: Dual Threat

Jackson averaged 20.8 PPG over the last three seasons (QB3 behind Allen and Hurts) but disappointed in 2025 (16.5 PPG) as the QB2 in ADP. However, injuries played a key role.

Key: DNP = did not participate in practice, LP = limited practice participation, FP = full practice participation.

Week 5-6: Hamstring; DNP, DNP, DNP; Out
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: Hamstring; LP, LP, Full; Questionable
Week 9: Hamstring; FP, FP, FP; Not listed
Week 11: Knee; DNP, FP, FP; Not listed
Week 12: Ankle; DNP, FP, FP; Not listed
Week 13: Toe; DNP, FP, FP; Not listed
Week 14: Ankle; LP, DNP, FP; Not listed
Week 15: Rest; DNP, FP, FP; Not listed
Week 16: Illness; DNP, FP, FP; Not listed
Week 17: Back; DNP, DNP, DNP; Out
Week 18: Back; FP, FP, FP; Not listed

Before the injuries (Weeks 1–4), Jackson averaged 7.9 yards per carry (YPC) on 21 attempts and 41.5 rushing yards per game (YPG). From Week 5 on, that dropped to 4.0 YPC and 20 YPG. For context, he averaged 51 and 54 rushing YPG in the prior two seasons.

Over his first three contests in 2025, Jackson delivered 29.4, 26.3, and 25-point performances (only played 70% of snaps in Week 4).

With Jesse Minter taking over as head coach and Declan Doyle at OC, I project fewer designed runs as Jackson enters his age-29.7 season, but improved efficiency. He still projects for 5.7 rushing PPG (would be his second-lowest, yet still QB4 range).

As a passer, Jackson owns elite passing spike seasons with 17.1 PPG in 2019 and 19 in 2024. Over the last three years, he has averaged 230, 245, and 196 YPG. His passing fantasy points per dropback without pressure have been elite over the last two seasons: 0.70 (1st), 0.59 (4th). And Doyle importing Ben Johnson concepts should boost under-center, play action, and motion at the snap.

Play action: 32% (2nd)
Motion: 58% (7th)

While Jackson's designed rushing attempts are declining, Doyle's offense could create more scramble opportunities off play-action bootlegs and waggles. Those are also the types of plays where the veteran can better protect himself and get out of harm's way.

Nerd Note: 55% of offenses that improved by 35+ yards per game since 2020 had a change at play caller.

Jackson owns the best ESPN playoff rostership rate ever for a QB (69% in 2019) and the top WAR season (+6.0). He has beaten ADP two of the last three years in WAR.

Jackson has outkicked his expected PPG based on ADP in three of four years:

2023: +2.1
2024: +6.6
2025: -4.0

Even with conservative assumptions (no passing growth, near-career-low rushing), he projects as the QB2 with 1.4 WAR.

Bottom Line: Jackson is a Round 3-4 target (Round 5 on Underdog) with league-winning upside. How many QBs have a similar chance to Jackson to throw for 4,000 yards and run for 750+?

Tier 2: Mid-range QB1s

Drake Maye | Patriots

Season: 3 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 16.4*, 20.6 (*10 games with 75%-plus snaps)
Archetype: Balanced

Maye made a massive Year 2 leap, averaging 20.6 PPG (QB2) after being drafted as the QB16.

PPG Over Expected: +4.8
ESPN Playoff Rosters: 53% (4th)
WAR: 1.6 (3rd)
WAR Over Expected: 2.6 (3rd)

He ranked fifth in passing YPG (259) and eighth in rushing YPG (26.5), translating to strong production in both phases:

Passing: 16.7 PPG (5th)
Rushing: 4.1 PPG (8th)

Nerd Note: The passing and rushing numbers add up to 20.8. That is slightly more than his 20.6 PPG above because fumbles are assigned to rushing at the play level, so I left them out of the pass-vs.-rush split data.

That combination is historically valuable. Since 2011, QBs averaging 250–270 passing YPG and 20–30 rushing YPG have averaged 19.4 PPG and finished QB7. That baseline may undersell Maye in today’s NFL environment, with 2025 passing YPG (225) the lowest since 2008, continuing a multi-year slide.

QBs with 250+ passing YPG by season:

2016: 17
2017: 11
2018: 19
2019: 16
2020: 16
2021: 12
2022: 10
2023: 10
2024: 8
2025: 7

Maye also improved his non-pressure passing fantasy points per dropback from 0.36 (27th) to 0.58 (5th).

My biggest concern for Maye: his 6.3% touchdowns per attempt (TDPA) is likely to regress, even with the additions of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. The correlation of TDPA year-over-year over the last 10 years is very low (0.09). Of the 42 QBs to reach 6% or higher, their TDPA dropped by 15% on average, with 37 (88%) of them seeing a decline.

I have Maye projected for 5.3% in 2026. Below last year but well above the three-year NFL average of 4.5% for QBs that played at least eight games.

Maye ranked third in scramble rate (10%) for QBs with at least 250 snaps last season, which is the calling card of a balanced QB. Typically, like Maye, they aren't heavily involved in the designed run game (7%), but have the mobility to make their scrambles count.

Bottom Line: Balanced QBs are the second-most likely profile to help fantasy managers win leagues. Maye is one of the few QBs who can throw for 4,000+ yards and run for 400+, making him a strong mid-range QB1.

Jalen Hurts | Eagles

Season: 7 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 21, 21, 18.7
Archetype: Dual Threat

Hurts ranks third in fantasy PPG over the last three seasons with 20.3, but registered his worst campaign as the starter with 18.7 in 2025. The culprit? His rushing fantasy points per game fell by 43%.

Hurts finished second in the NFL in designed rushing attempt share, but it was his lowest mark in three years. His scramble rate and share of rushing attempts inside the five-yard line also dipped.

With Sean Mannion replacing Kevin Patullo, the Eagles are expected to run more of the offense from under center, implementing a wide-zone run scheme. Mannion spent his last two years with the Packers under Matt LaFleur, who spent time under Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.

That could open up more scramble opportunities for Hurts off of play action and bootleg plays, but it could also lead to fewer designed rush plays, which are best out of shotgun for QBs. The tush push should still be in play near the goal line, which keeps a high-end rushing TD ceiling within the range of outcomes.

Nerd Note: Scramble rates climb from 5% on non-play-action plays to 6.2% on play-action dropbacks based on the last three seasons of data.

While it is hard to confidently project a jump for Hurts in the passing department with the departure of A.J. Brown, an upgrade in scheme and the additions of Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers in the NFL Draft make it plausible. Mannion never called plays with Green Bay, but hopefully, he picked up on LaFleur's cheat codes.

2024-2025 Packers Offense:

Play Action: 25% (13th)
Motion at Snap: 58% (7th)

Hurts catches a lot of flak in real-life NFL circles for his passing-game woes. His fantasy box scores have also been lackluster, averaging 194 and 202 YPG the last two seasons. But his passing fantasy points per non-pressure dropback provide a hint of optimism.

2022: 0.50 points per dropback (5th)
2023: 0.39 (20th)
2024: 0.51 (8th)
2025: 0.50 (12th)

There is definitely something to work with here if Mannion can come through and Hurts buys in. His Xfinity best projection (ceiling) is 22.3 PPG.

Bottom Line: Hurts comes with more question marks than in previous seasons, but offers significant upside at his lowest price since 2022. He is a Round 6-7 pick on most platforms.

Jayden Daniels | Commanders

Season: 3 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 20.9, 16.3
Archetype: Dual Threat

As a rookie, Daniels appeared on 53% of ESPN playoff rosters, finished QB6 and delivered 1.7 WAR as the QB12 in drafts. He posted 7.4 rushing PPG (4th), with 16% of the designed rush attempts (5th), and led all QBs with a 12% scramble rate.

In 2025, injuries derailed his season, as he played at least 80% of snaps only five times. In those games, he averaged 18.3 PPG with 5.7 rushing PPG. In the four games where he played 100% of the snaps, he handled 13% of designed rush attempts and posted an elite 17% scramble rate, averaging 18.9 PPG.

Given the small sample, it is better to zoom out. Including the 2024 playoffs, Daniels has averaged 22.3 PPG across 23 games with at least 80% of snaps. Over the last decade, QBs hitting that mark have finished as the QB3. His 233 passing YPG over that span isn't elite, but it is slightly above the NFL average.

The Commanders are expected to incorporate more under-center looks under new OC David Blough. That could slightly reduce designed rushing, but Daniels should remain one of the league’s top scramblers.

Washington added Chig Okonkwo and drafted Antonio Williams (Round 3), but neither is a clear difference-maker. That said, Daniels already proved he can produce with limited weapons alongside Terry McLaurin.

The key question is passing efficiency. Daniels posted 0.43 non-pressure fantasy points per dropback as a rookie (vs. 0.43 league average over the last three years) and 0.35 in 2025, with injuries playing a role.

Dual-threat QBs without heavy inside-the-five usage (like Allen or Hurts) often need elite efficiency to deliver true league-winning seasons. Daniels’ closest comps average 20.7 PPG—strong, but short of elite. Still, the upside for a spike passing season remains heading into Year 3.

Bottom Line: Daniels is a Round 5-6 pick who could challenge for high-end QB1 status if he takes the next step as a passer. In that version of reality, he becomes one of the very few QBs with a chance to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 750+.

Joe Burrow | Bengals

Season: 7 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (22 & 24): 21.9, 21.9 (last two healthy seasons)
Archetype: Pocket

In his last two healthy campaigns (2022 and 2024), Burrow has finished as the QB4 and QB3, delivering 2.7 and 3.3 PPG over expected vs his ADP.

He averaged 280 and 289 passing YPG—20% above the league average (234). He also threw 2.2 and 2.5 TDs per game, giving him edges of 59% and 68% over league averages.

He is one of the select few passers for whom I am comfortable projecting a TD-per-attempt rate over 5.5%. His career rate is 5.6%, and he has eclipsed 5.5% in four of five years.

2020: 3.2%
2021: 6.5%
2022: 5.8%
2023: 4.1%
2024: 6.6%
2025: 6.6%

Last season, a turf toe injury in Week 2 sidelined him until Week 13. Across seven healthy games, he averaged 18.2 PPG with 248 passing YPG and 2.3 TDs per game, topping 20 points four times.

Historically, the Bengals have been an unimaginative offense relying on Burrow to outgun opponents with two high-flying WRs in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. They were below average schematically the last two seasons with Zac Taylor (playcaller and head coach) and Dan Pitcher (OC):

Play Action: 18% (31st)
Motion at Snap: 56% (22nd)

However, there have been rumblings of change. Pitcher wants more under-center snaps and play action to create explosives. On the one hand, this could be good from an efficiency standpoint. On the other hand, we didn't have to wonder whether the Bengals would be a pass-heavy team in recent years.

Dropback Rate Over Expected:

2022: 8% (2nd)
2024: 8% (1st)

Ultimately, I still expect a pass-first team, but have tempered their dropback rate to 64.5% in the projections. In 2022 and 2024, their rates were 65% and 67%, respectively.

Burrow doesn't add much as a runner, but he isn't a statue. He averaged 2.3 PPG rushing over his last three healthy campaigns, with a high of 3.5. Patrick Mahomes was at 3.5 rushing PPG with 21.3 passing in 2022 when he was on 60% of ESPN playoff rosters and notched 4.3 WAR. That is the ceiling you are shooting for with Burrow.

Bottom Line: It is hard for a pocket passer to make this tier, but Burrow is the lone exception. He is one of the best pure passers in the NFL with two great weapons and is still in his prime.

Caleb Williams | Bears

Season: 3 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 15, 18.6
Archetype: Balanced

Williams upped his game in Year 2 with the arrival of Ben Johnson and two new early-round draft picks in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. He wasn't a massive win from a WAR perspective (+0), but scored 1.1 PPG over expected given his ADP as QB15.

After dual-threat archetypes, balanced options are the most likely to help us dominate our fantasy leagues, which is the bucket where Williams resides.

In Year 2, Williams delivered 14.8 PPG passing and 3.3 rushing. His passing YPG jumped from 208 to 232. And he upped his non-pressure passing points per dropback from 0.36 to 0.45.

His rushing yards came down slightly from 28.8 to 22.8 YPG, but positive TD regression hit with three rushing scores versus zero as a rookie. The Year 3 QB doesn't run a ton. His designed rush rate of 5% ranked 17th for QBs with at least 300 dropbacks in 2025. He ranked 13th in scramble rate at 7%. However, he is efficient. Williams averages 8.1 yards per scramble and has ranked 4th and 6th in scramble yards with 372 and 363, respectively.

If Williams decided to scramble more, he would post similar rushing numbers to Maye. But perhaps his biggest opportunity to take another step forward comes thanks to a superb scheme and three strong passing-game weapons: Loveland, Burden and Rome Odunze. Johnson is one of the best schemers in the NFL, and Williams is entering Year 2 in the system.

Johnson stayed true to his roots from his time in Detroit in Year 1 in Chicago.

Play Action: 32% (2nd)
Motion at Snap: 58% (7th)

Williams projects as a solid mid-range QB1 in the fantasy life projections with an Xfinity Best ceiling of 21.6 PPG. His WAR projection is +0.4.

Bottom Line: Williams is a similar archetype to Maye, who offers high-end QB1 upside. However, he is significantly cheaper, going 30 to 50 picks later on sites like ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo. Underdog drafters take them within a few picks of one another.

Tier 3: Low-End QB1s

Jaxson Dart | Giants

Season: 2 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (2025): 19.9 (as the starter)
Archetype: Dual Threat

Dart took over the starting job in Week 4 of his rookie season and was the QB8 the rest of the way. That included four 25+ point spike performances.

He did this despite playing with Malik Nabers for only one half of a football game. While the status of Nabers for the early season is up in the air for 2026, Dart will be playing with the young superstar at some point. The team lost Wan'Dale Robinson but added pass-catching specialist Isaiah Likely at TE.

Dart averaged only 184 yards per game with 0.37 passing fantasy points on non-pressure dropbacks. He is still an unproven commodity as a passer. However, he ranked second in designed rush rate (13%), fourth in scramble rate (9%), and second in designed rush share inside the five-yard line (33%) from Week 4 on.

Those numbers could come down—which are reflected in my projections—due to injury concerns, but I expect the Giants to keep the second-year QB's legs involved in the run game to keep defenses off balance.

The team revamped its coaching staff, with Jim Harbaugh taking over as head coach and Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator.

Nagy's playcalling metrics are among the worst of any active coordinator. And that's not a subjective take.

Play Action: 17% (bad)
Motion at Snap: 39% (bad)

However, there is a potential saving grace if you are looking for a glass-half-full view: Head coach John Harbaugh has worked with playcallers who have historically done some of those things. Over the last three years, here are his offenses:

Play Action: 27% (good)
Motion at Snap: 49% (average)

The Giants also added fullback Patrick Ricard and have a third TE, Chris Manhertz, known for blocking, on the roster. Personnel-wise, I expect this team to use more heavy looks, and it makes sense to increase their play-action rate.

Ultimately, when you add it all up, Nagy is a big question mark, but Harbaugh, along with Greg Roman on the staff, plus the personnel moves, gives me confidence that his impact could be muted.

Bottom Line: Dart comes with some uncertainty, but possesses the dual-threat traits to smash expectations as a Round 7-8 pick on most sites. He is my second-most-drafted QB through 120 drafts.

Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars

Season: 6 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 16.4, 14.5, 19.9
Archetype: Balanced

Lawrence tallied the best season of his career in 2025 with 19.9 PPG (QB5) with Liam Coen at the offensive controls. T-Law didn't dominate ESPN playoff rosters, but was unmistakably a plus player.

PPG Over Expected: +4.1 (3rd)
WAR: 1.2 (4th)
WAR Over Expected: 2.2 (2nd)

The former No. 1 pick has long offered a balanced profile, but 2025 marked career highs in both passing (14.8 PPG) and rushing (5.3 PPG). That dual spike is exactly the appeal of balanced QBs, though repeating it is difficult.

If Coen—not variance—was the driver, another strong season is in play. There is supporting evidence: Coen also unlocked a Baker Mayfield double spike in 2024 (18.4 passing PPG, 3.3 rushing PPG) and leaned heavily into schematic advantages.

2023-2024 Jaguars:

Play Action: 22% (23rd)
Motion at Snap: 44% (20th)

2025 Jaguars:

Play Action: 25% (17th)
Motion at Snap: 56% (10th)

The supporting cast also deepened. Parker Washington emerged late, and Jacksonville added Jakobi Meyers to a group that includes Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter and Brenton Strange. While lacking a clear elite WR1, the unit offers multiple role winners and answers versus coverage.

Lawrence also set a career high for passing fantasy points on non-pressure dropbacks with 0.50, besting his mark of 0.46 in Year 2. However, his non-rookie season four-year average is 0.43—right at the NFL average. Still, his 236 passing YPG aligns closely with 2022 (242) and 2023 (251). That's not bad in today's NFL!

He also flashed more rushing intent, with an 8% designed rush rate and 29% share of team carries inside the five, both his highest since his rookie season (9%, 29%). His collegiate rushing upside may finally be getting unlocked.

While I am projecting some regression for Lawrence as a passer in 2026, I am buying his TD scoring upside. He projects for 5.8 rushing TDs—fourth-most.

Bottom Line: Lawrence is a balanced QB with significant TD upside as both a passer and a runner. He is a low-end QB1 with mid-range QB1 upside you can draft in Round 8.

Justin Herbert | Chargers

Season: 7 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 17.9, 16.7, 17.9
Archetype: Balanced

Herbert began his career with a bang, notching QB8 and QB3 finishes with 22.2 and 22.4 PPG campaigns. In those seasons, he added 2.3 and 1.7 WAR. However, he settled into low-end QB1 territory over the last three years, finishing QB10, QB13 and QB11 with an average WAR of -0.2.

But there is a big reason for optimism in 2026: Mike McDaniel is taking over play-calling duties. McDaniel will run a balanced offense that keeps defenses guessing, with heavier personnel. Expect him to dial up the scheme cheat codes early and often. Over the last three seasons, no other coordinator has used a combination of play action and motion at the snap more.

McDaniel with Miami (2023-2025):

Play Action: 30% (2nd)
Motion at Snap: 69% (1st)

McDaniel has operated a balanced scheme over that time frame.

2023: 0% DBOE
2024: 0% DBOE
2025: -3% DBOE

But this scheme has historically been an efficiency booster. Tua Tagovailoa averaged 8.9 and 8.3 YPA in 2022 and 2023, before falling off over the last two seasons. While Herbert doesn't have a WR corps on par with prime Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, he offers superior arm talent with better scrambling upside.

I am not going overboard with the projections, but have Herbert projected for 7.5 yards per attempt (YPA), above his 7.29 over the last three seasons. With an 8.0 YPA, he would project as the QB6.

The Chargers are my favorite breakout offense candidate for 2026.

Herbert has eclipsed 2.5 rushing PPG in five of six seasons, peaking at 3.9 in 2025. His 7% designed rush rate (Greg Roman) and 8% scramble rate (driven by OL injuries to Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) are unlikely to hold, but 2-3 rushing PPG is in play.

Bottom Line: Herbert is a balanced QB archetype who could boom in McDaniel's scheme. He offers top-six upside in Rounds 7-8 on most platforms.

Brock Purdy | 49ers

Season: 5 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.5, 17.8, 19.7
Archetype: Balanced

Purdy hasn't finished lower than QB10 in PPG over the last three years and is the QB6 over that span with 18.5 PPG. He hasn't been a "league-winner" yet, but has been a plus pick each season.

Last season was limited to only nine games due to turf toe and shoulder injuries. But on a per-game basis, Purdy still outproduced his expected PPG, which has been the case each season.

2023: +2.7 PPG Over Expected
2024: +0.6 PPG Over Expected
2025: +2.3 PPG Over Expected

There is some fragility with the 49ers roster, which is highly dependent on aging weapons: Christian McCaffrey (30), Mike Evans (33) and George Kittle (33). Last season, we saw Purdy's yards per game dip without Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

2023: 268 YPG Passing
2024: 258
2025: 241

Honestly, 241 is borderline impressive given the state of the WR room last year with Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall also battling injuries. However, Purdy resides within one of the best schemes in the NFL with Kyle Shanahan, which offsets some personnel challenges.

Play Action: 23% (22nd)
Motion at Snap: 66% (2nd)

Purdy's passing non-pressure fantasy points per dropback have trended down, but remain above the NFL average: 0.62, 0.62, 0.45, 0.56. Ultimately, I have Purdy projected between his three-year YPA of 8.7 and last year's 7.6.

Over the last two seasons, Purdy has learned to use his legs, which has added significant fantasy value, delivering 4.2 and 3.6 PPG rushing. That pushes him well into the balanced archetype range.

Bottom Line: Purdy is a strong low-end QB1 option who offers mid-range QB1 spike upside if the 49ers' weapons remain healthy. That is not bad for a Round 9 pick, who profiles more similarly to Maye and Williams than the masses realize.

Dak Prescott | Cowboys

Season: 11 (Post Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23 & 25): 20.2, 18.5
Archetype: Balanced

Prescott has garnered QB4 and QB9 finishes in his last two healthy years (2023 and 2025). Similar to Purdy, he hasn't single-handedly changed fantasy football destinies, but has played well enough to help you win if you waited on QB, delivering +2.6 PPG and +0.7 PPG over expected vs. ADP.

Prescott has been one of the few QBs to overcome the dramatic downturn in passing YPG across the league, averaging 278 in 2023 and 2025. His passing non-pressure fantasy points per dropback registered at 0.50 each of those seasons.

The Cowboys have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league: CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson and Ryan Flournoy.

Plus, the coaching staff has acknowledged that they want to continue to lean into their strengths. Dallas projects No. 1 in plays per game (63.5) and sixth in dropback rate (61.8%) in the projection model. And in Year 1, Brian Schottenheimer was a pleasant surprise as a play caller.

Play Action: 27% (10th)
Motion at Snap: 54% (12th)

Prescott offers a similar path to fantasy significance as Joe Burrow, but there are two differences:

Prescott is entering his post-prime era, where production remains strong but begins to creep downward.
Prescott's rushing PPG is in the pocket-passer range but trending toward statue territory. He averaged 1.8 rushing PPG last season.

Bottom Line: Prescott is one of the few QBs who can deliver massive passing yards, but doesn't offer the same rushing upside he once did. He is a borderline QB1 who goes in Rounds 7-8. Think discount Joe Burrow.

Tier 4: Borderline QB1s

Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs

Season: 10 (Post Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 17.5, 17.6, 20.3
Archetype: Balanced

After two borderline QB1 finishes in 2023 and 2024, Mahomes bounced back with a QB4 performance in 2025. His 20.3 PPG were +0.9 over expected vs his ADP, and 57% of ESPN playoff rosters had Mahomes on them. He now has three career finishes above 55% (2018, 2022, and 2025).

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and LCL in Week 15 and had surgery in mid-December. While Mahomes has a strong chance to play Week 1, he might not be the same as a rusher until later in the season. That is a concern, considering his career-high 5.2 PPG on the ground bolstered his 2025 season.

From a passing perspective, Mahomes has held up well with 261, 246 and 256 YPG. Given the downward league trend and his lack of high-end weapons, those are numbers we can work with. However, the explosiveness of this offense has vanished, and his passing fantasy points per non-pressure dropback have fallen: 0.45, 0.40, 0.39.

From 2018 to 2022, Mahomes threw for a TD on over 5.5% of his passes every year, including three years over 6%. Over the last three seasons, that has fallen to 4.5%, 4.5% and 4.4%.

We didn't get a significant addition to the passing game, but the Chiefs did add Kenneth Walker and brought back Eric Bienemy to replace Matt Nagy as OC. With Walker in place, there is a chance Kansas City opts for a more balanced offense and tries to win through efficiency rather than tying their fate to a pass-heavy operation.

2023: 6% DBOE (1st)
2024: 5% DBOE (2nd)
2025: 6% DBOE (T-2nd)

They could also benefit from using more play-action passes, which go hand in hand with Walker. Over the last three seasons, their 22% play action rate ranks 26th in the NFL.

What could possibly go wrong with labeling one of the best QBs all-time as a borderline QB1 in fantasy football? I certainly want exposure to Mahomes in best ball because a player of his caliber can be surprising. However, I find it hard to project him as a high-end fantasy option given the Chiefs didn't add a significant passing-game weapon and the injury could limit his rushing upside.

Bottom Line: Mahomes is a discounted bet on talent, but the setup carries real risk—ACL recovery, declining TD rate, and a potentially more balanced offense. Treat him as a fringe QB1: target when he falls past ADP (especially in best ball), but don’t reach.

Kyler Murray | Vikings

Season: 8 (Late Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.3, 17.5, 15.6
Archetype: Dual Threat (borderline)

Murray only played five games in 2025 before losing his job to Jacoby Brissett. In the two prior seasons, he finished as QB9 and QB12. The last time we saw Murray deliver a significant fantasy season was in 2020:

PPG Over Expected: +5.0
ESPN Playoff Rosters: 53%
WAR: +3.6
WAR Over Expected: +2.8

Despite that, he is a player I am heavily targeting this season. For multiple reasons:

He is a dual-threat
He has a premium group of weapons: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, T.J. Hockenson.
Kevin O'Connell has found success with almost every QB not named J.J. McCarthy.
O'Connell used play action on 30% of dropbacks (2nd) in the three years prior to McCarthy.

Here's every QB who played 80% of snaps in at least three games under O'Connell since 2022:

QB | Season | Games | Pass Yards Per Game | TDs Per Game

Carson Wentz (2025): 4, 261 YPG, 1.0 TDs
J.J. McCarthy (2025): 8, 168, 1.4
Sam Darnold (2024): 17, 254, 2.1
Kirk Cousins (2023): 8, 291, 2.3
Joshua Dobbs (2023): 4, 208, 1.3
Nick Mullens (2023): 3, 370, 2.0
Kirk Cousins (2022): 15, 281, 1.9

This is really all that I need to see. Murray has a shot to average 250+ passing YPG. He has averaged 33 rushing YPG over the last three seasons with 5 PPG rushing (in a worse offense).

In a double-spike season, he could pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 600+. Murray doesn't get a lot of work rushing close to the goal line but has averaged 0.35 per game for his career—that makes a three to five rushing TDs reasonable, and he could get lucky and score more.

Technically, Murray is battling McCarthy for the starting job, but is the favorite. That is the main reason I don't have him higher. Once we know that for sure, he will climb draft boards.

Bottom Line: Murray checks a ton of boxes as a dual-threat in a strong scheme with high-end passing-game weapons. He is a high-priority target as a fringe QB1 with mid-range QB1 upside.

Bo Nix | Broncos

Season: 3 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 18.6, 17.9
Archetype: Balanced

Nix has secured QB8 and QB10 finishes in his first two seasons as a starter, but has yet to be a difference-maker in fantasyland.

However, things could improve in 2026 with the addition of Jaylen Waddle. Nix averaged 222 and 231 passing YPG, which is basically in line with the NFL average. And we can say the same for his 0.44 and 0.40 passing fantasy points per non-pressure dropback. If he can make a jump with Waddle, Nix has a solid underlying rushing profile.

He has averaged 3.9 rushing PPG in each of his first two campaigns. That is the type of rushing production that can make a significant difference if he spikes for 17+ points per game as a passer. Over his first two seasons, he averaged 14.3 and 13.8.

Note: Nix is recovering from a fractured right ankle sustained in the AFC Championship Game, but is on track for training camp.

Davis Webb will take over play-calling duties as the new OC under Sean Payton. The hope is to install a faster-paced offense with more motion. Over the last two seasons under the Payton-Nix partnership, the Broncos rank last in motion at the snap (36%) and seventh in play action (28%).

Bottom Line: Nix must improve as a passer to unlock league-winning upside, but the addition of Jaylen Waddle gives him a chance. He offers enough as a runner to spike in both categories, similar to Trevor Lawrence last season. Nix is a Round 8-10 pick, depending on the site.

Tier 5: High-End to Mid-Range QB2s

Jared Goff | Lions

Season: 11 (Post Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 17, 19, 17.5
Archetype: Statue

Goff doesn't qualify as a league-winner, but he has consistently outperformed his ADP with QB14, QB7 and QB12 finishes over the last three seasons. In those seasons, he averaged 1.2, 1.5 and 1.1 PPG over expected vs his ADP.

As you can see, the key to gaining WAR over expected for an archetype like Goff is ADP. When it is low, you can squeeze some value. As it increases, you lose value. The good news: his consensus ADP is 120 in the early summer. If that holds, Goff isn't a bad backup plan at QB.

Still, he isn't a primary target because even when things go extremely well—and they have the last three years—it is very hard for statue archetypes to bend the win curve in a league-winning manner in fantasy football.

2023: 269 YPG, 1.8 TDs → 16.4 passing PPG (5th)
2024: 272 YPG, 2.2 TDs → 18.2 passing PPG (4th)
2025: 269 YPG, 2.0 TDs → 17.8 passing PPG (2nd)

Unfortunately, his 0.83, 0.33, and 0.26 PPG rushing caps his upside. If there was ever a great example of how much a lack of rushing production can hurt in today's NFL, it is Goff. That makes him a small-hit player if he keeps on keeping on, but the smallest downturn in passing production for Goff would hurt.

He lost Ben Johnson as his OC in 2025, but was able to keep things going thanks to an elite surrounding cast: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. He has options at every level of the field. Drew Petzing will take over play-calling duties in 2026. Let's just get out of the way and try not to screw this up for the weapons, Drew!

Bottom Line: Goff is a solid high-end QB2 with back-to-back top-12 finishes, but he can't afford to go down in passing yards, and his ceiling is capped.

Matthew Stafford | Rams

Season: 18 (Late Post Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 16.2, 13.4, 20.6
Archetype: Statue

Stafford was undrafted in most fantasy leagues last season after QB16 and QB27 finishes in 2023 and 2024. Of course, the veteran then proceeded to score 20.6 PPG and finish as the QB3 and showed up on 46% of ESPN playoff rosters—the latest McVay-Shanahan tree QB to do so.

In Stafford's first year with the Rams, he threw a TD on 6.8% of his passes. But that plummeted to 3.3%, 4.6%, and 3.9% before last year's insane mark of 7.7%. In those middle years, the Rams and Stafford battled injuries that were part of the issue. The addition of Davante Adams (14 red-zone TDs) helped cure Stafford's TD slump, along with 13 personnel packages.

McVay has been a thought leader in schematic cheat codes over the last three seasons.

Play Action: 62% (3rd)
Motion at Snap: 29% (5th)

When you put all of this together, Stafford has a chance to put up strong passing numbers again in 2026. Still, he will be hard-pressed to replicate his 2025 numbers. I am giving this offense respect—you could argue too much respect. I have Stafford regressing in TDs per attempt, but still have him the third-highest at 5.5%. That makes him a mid-range QB2 in the projection model.

Similar to Goff, Stafford has a narrow needle to thread due to a lack of rushing production. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged 0.43, 0.26 and 0.01 points per game on the ground.

Bottom Line: Stafford plays in a great scheme with strong weapons, which gives him a chance to boom, but the most likely scenario is a borderline QB1 to mid-range QB2 finish. He is a Round 8-9 pick on most sites.

Jordan Love | Packers

Season: 7 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.7, 15.6, 15.7
Archetype: Pocket

Love finished as the QB5 in 2023 but has fallen to QB17 and QB20 over the last two seasons. Despite that, I find him intriguing because the primary driver in his downfall has been a lack of attempts.

This is a team-driven dynamic, with Matt LaFleur opting for a run-heavy-to-run-balanced scheme that doesn't run many plays per game.

2023: 61.5 plays (25th), 59% pass (21st), -2% DBOE (17th) → 34.1
2024: 60.4 (26th), 52% pass (30th), -7% DBOE (31st) → 28.3
2025: 59.0 (26th), 58% pass (28th), -2% DBOE (22nd) → 29.3

Love doesn't take many sacks, and his passing fantasy points per non-pressure dropback have steadily improved each season: 0.46, 0.52, 0.64. His TDs per attempt have also been strong each season: 5.5%, 5.9%, 5.2%.

Simply stated, Love is a good QB. We can't predict more passing given LaFleur's history, but there is upside should this team decide to throw more. Aside from the low play volumes, the Packers are solid.

Last three seasons:

Play Action: 26% (10th)
Motion at Snap: 56% (6th)

A good QB in a scheme like this is where random spike seasons are made.

Love lacks elite weapons, but departures of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks open more snaps for Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, the team’s top WRs. Tucker Kraft (ACL), one of the league’s best young TEs, could anchor the offense when healthy, while 2025 first-rounder Matthew Golden is set for a larger role.

Bottom Line: Predicting a big-time season from Love is impossible, but the underlying components for a spike season are present. That makes him a solid target as the QB19 off the board in drafts.

Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers

Season: 9 (Late Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 16.1, 21.5, 16
Archetype: Balanced

Mayfield broke out in 2024 under Liam Coen (21.5 PPG), posting 47% ESPN Playoff rostership and 2.5 WAR (+3.9). But he regressed in 2025, delivering -2.1 WAR over expected as the QB7 in ADP.

He was a classic TD-spike QB. In 2024, he posted a 7.2% TD rate (vs. 4.5% prior average) and 7.9 YPA (vs. 7.2 career). Regression was expected, though not all of it was his fault.

Mayfield battled through a litany of injuries last season, and his top playmakers were also extremely banged up. Prior to his injuries mounting, he averaged 19.4 PPG over the first six games.

Last year, Liam Coen was replaced by Josh Grizzard, who aimed to carry over concepts from Coen and Mike McDaniel (two years in Miami), but the offense never clicked. Now Zac Robinson, a McVay disciple, gets another shot after two years in Atlanta, though it’s unclear if this is an upgrade.

Play Action: 17% (32nd)
Motion at Snap: 61% (4th)

Quarterback preference can influence play action, which may have been a factor with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix, but it’s difficult to say definitively.

Robinson is tasked with designing an offense without Mike Evans. That means Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin will have to shoulder more of the load, and one of Jalen McMillan or Ted Hurst must step up.

Interestingly, Mayfield has morphed from a pocket archetype to a balanced QB over the last two seasons. He has averaged 3.2 and 2.6 rushing points per game thanks to career-high scramble rates of 7% each year.

That might not sound like much, but it gives Mayfield a reasonable path to a 17-19 PPG season if he rebounds slightly as a passer. His average fantasy passing points per non-pressure dropback is 0.48 during his three years in Tampa, which is slightly above the NFL average.

Bottom Line: Mayfield's ascension into the balanced archetype provides him with a path to fantasy relevance, especially if Robinson can find the McVay-tree magic.

Tier 5B: Upside QB2 Sleepers

Tyler Shough | Saints

Season: 2 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (2025): 17.2 PPG (nine games as starter)
Archetype: Balanced

Shough averaged 250 YPG in nine starts as a rookie. Yes, it was against bad competition. But that is a strong number for a Year 1 player, regardless. It is a small sample, so we don't want to overreact, but Shough also got reinforcements this offseason.

The Saints selected Jordyn Tyson with their Round 1 pick, giving Shough potentially two high-quality options. Plus, they added Travis Etienne to the backfield in free agency.

Under Kellen Moore, the Saints deploy a high-tempo attack. They ran the eighth-most plays per game in regulation last season (63.2), and only the Cowboys were faster in neutral game scripts. When the score was within three points, the Saints snapped the ball with 10.3 seconds remaining on the play clock. Moore only dialed up play action on 19% of plays (31st) but deployed motion at the snap 61% (3rd).

Shough was also a plus on the ground, handling 9% of the designed rushing attempts and posting a 5% scramble rate. He averaged 3.3 PPG rushing, with 19.3 YPG and three scores. He was a close call between the pocket and balanced archetype.

Bottom Line: Shough was impressive as a rookie and has more weapons in Year 2. That makes him an interesting sleeper option at QB in 2026.

Malik Willis | Dolphins

Season: 5 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 23.3 (three games with 80%+ snaps)
Archetype: Dual Threat

Our sample with Willis is extremely small, but he was highly active as a runner in three games with 80% or more of the snaps for the Packers in 2025-2025. In those games, he handled 14% of the designed rushing attempts and scrambled on 16% of dropbacks. Those are dual-threat-worthy marks.

In those contests, he averaged 204 passing YPG and 58 rushing YPG. He averaged two TDs per game, one rushing and one passing.

In Miami, he doesn't have many weapons to work with outside of De'Von Achane, which could significantly cap his passing ceiling, but he projects for the sixth-most rushing fantasy points per game at 5.4. He comes in at 104 attempts, 638 yards, and 3.6 TDs.

I expect the Dolphins to trail in plenty of games but remain committed to an under-center attack that sticks to the run game. If they can surprise with an efficient offense under Shanahan disciple, Bobby Slowik, Willis could provide fantasy value in 2026.

Things ultimately didn't work out for Slowik with the Texans as their OC from 23-24, but he did attempt to use play action and motion at the snap.

Play Action: 24% (14th)
Motion at Snap: 58% (6th)

The Packers utilized motion on 62% of snaps with Willis and called play action 29% of the time. Theoretically, he is familiar with the offense that Slowik wants to deploy. Willis's former play-caller, Matt LaFleur, also spent time under Kyle Shanahan, as did Slowik.

While Willis projects as one of the top rushing options, he projects for the fewest passing points per game at 10.7.

Bottom Line: The weapons are a concern for Willis, but he checks the scheme and dual-threat boxes, which are enough to make him a fantasy QB sleeper in 2026.

Tier 6: Low-End QB2s

Daniel Jones | Colts

Season: 8 (Late Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 13.5, 17.4
Archetype: Balanced?

In 12 full games before a season-ending Achilles injury, Jones averaged 18.2 PPG in Year 1 under Shane Steichen in Indianapolis. Jones had his best YPG season as a passer, averaging 253 and tossing 1.6 TDs per game. When not under pressure, he averaged 0.44 passing points per dropback—his best mark since his rookie season.

Jones remained relevant on the ground, averaging 3.6 PPG rushing, but his designed rushing attempts reached a career-low of 5%. He ranked 18th in scramble rate (5%).

Coming off an Achilles injury, Jones could look more like a pocket passer in 2026, which isn't great for his outlook. His career-highs in fantasy passing PPG are 14.9 (Year 1) and 15.7 (2025). If you are adding 3-4 PPG rushing, those numbers are a strong enough baseline to push you into the top 12 QBs, but we might not get that sort of rushing output from Jones in 2026.

The Colts traded Michael Pittman to the Steelers, leaving the WR room with little depth. That opens the door for Josh Downs to see the field more, but their newly minted field stretcher, Alec Pierce ($114M, four years), underwent ankle surgery in late March. The team is hopeful Pierce will be ready for Week 1, but he will miss some training camp reps at a minimum.

Steichan rolled out a balanced offense and utilized plenty of play action and motion at the snap to give his signal-callers an advantage in 2025:

Play Action: 32% (3rd)
Motion at Snap: 57% (8th)

The third-year coach has a long track record of using play action above the league average, dating back to his time with the Eagles. However, his offenses had been motion-deficient before last season.

Bottom Line: Jones is not a draft-day target in non-best-ball or Superflex formats due to mobility and weaponry concerns, but could become a waiver wire option.

C.J. Stroud | Texans

Season: 4 (Prime)
Fantasy PPG (23-25): 18.3, 13, 14.9
Archetype: Pocket

Stroud's 18.3 PPG rookie season feels like a decade ago after two massive letdown campaigns. It seems that NFL defenses quickly figured out his strengths, as his passing YPG has plummeted: 274 → 219 → 217.

While the offensive line draws blame, it isn’t everything. Stroud has faced pressure on 36% of dropbacks (vs. 34% NFL average) and quick pressure on 19% (vs. 17%). QBs like Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff have still performed in higher quick-pressure seasons.

For what it's worth, Houston added three new starters on the offensive line this offseason: C - Keylan Rutledge (Round 1 pick), RT - Braden Smith (free agent), and LG - Wyatt Teller. Last season, they drafted LT - Aireontae Ersery in Round 2.

Without pressure, Stroud averages 0.46 points per dropback (vs. 0.43 since 2021). Despite a strong defense, the Texans remain balanced and maintain strong play volume with Stroud.

2023: 0% DBOE (12th), 61.7 regulation plays per game (23rd)
2024: 3% (6th), 62.7 (10th)
2025: 0% DBOE (9th), 64.5 (64.5)

Play caller Nick Caley spent time under McVay from 2023 to 2024 before taking over as the OC for Houston last season. The Texans were middle of the pack in play action and motion.

Play Action: 24% (19th)
Motion at Snap: 51% (16th)

Caley did help cut down Stroud's pressure-to-sack ratio, which was a career low of 13% after seasons of 20% and 22% (vs. NFL average of 18%).

The Texans made no significant passing-game additions. Nico Collins remains the WR1, with Jayden Higgins (Round 2, 2025) as WR2. Jaylin Noel (Round 3, 2025) and Tank Dell (returning from injury) will compete for WR3/WR4. Collins is a major plus, but a young breakout is needed—Stroud’s best season came with Collins and Dell producing.

The coaching staff has hinted at a run-centric offense with more TE-centric formations. Their offseason moves back that up: RB - David Montgomery, TE - Marlin Klein (Round 2), and TE - Foster Moreau (free agent).

Stroud falls into the pocket QB archetype, adding under two PPG rushing in two of three seasons (1.9 average).

Bottom Line: Stroud could benefit from a retooled offense focused on efficiency over volume. He is a QB2-QB3 option in best ball and could be a waiver wire pickup in redraft leagues if he starts hot.

Sam Darnold | Seahawks

Season: 9 (Late Prime)
Fantasy PPG (24-25): 18.1, 13.9
Archetype: Pocket-Statue

Darnold blossomed under Kevin O'Connell in a loaded WR room in 2024, posting a 0.6 WAR with 18.1 PPG (QB9). Last season, he took home a Lombardi trophy with the Seahawks, but in a run-heavy scheme with a fantastic defense, he averaged only 13.9 PPG.

Seattle ranked 26th in DBOE (-4%), and Darnold ranked 28th in pass attempts. Darnold was highly efficient with an 8.5 YPA and a 5.2% TD-per-attempt rate. The veteran has posted back-to-back strong seasons without pressure, averaging 0.51 and 0.50 passing points per dropback. Theoretically, Darnold could produce better results if the Seahawks throw the ball a little more in 2026.

With Klint Kubiak gone, Brian Fleury, who spent the last six years under Kyle Shanahan in various roles, will seek to keep many of the same play designs and concepts intact. The Seahawks were sharp from a schematic standpoint in 2025.

Play Action: 28% (8th)
Motion at Snap: 60% (4th)

Darnold has a premier weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the team re-signed Rashid Shaheed ($51M, three years). There is a chance Shaheed takes over the WR2 role from Cooper Kupp, which could open up more explosive plays—especially if the team gets the speedy WR involved on more crossers and in-breaking routes. Cooper Kupp will be the WR3, but Tory Horton could challenge for reps. The team has a nice TE duo with AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo. Expect them to continue to use plenty of 12 personnel.

Over the last two seasons, Darnold has opted to run less, averaging 1.6 and 0.6 PPG on the ground. I kept him in the pocket archetype bucket, but he could be trending toward statue territory.

Bottom Line: Darnold theoretically has the type of scheme with enough weapons to spike for a low-end QB1 season in fantasy. He is a waiver-wire option in redraft and a QB2-QB3 option in best ball.

Cam Ward | Titans

Season: 2 (Early Prime)
Fantasy PPG (2025): 11
Archetype: Pocket

Year 1 was rough for Ward, who managed only 11 PPG. Historically, the high Round 1 picks that went on to future success fared far better.

Cam Newton: 23.1
Justin Herbert: 22.2
Kyler Murray: 17.8
Joe Burrow: 17.4
Andrew Luck: 17.3

The closest top-six picks to Ward:

Sam Darnold: 12.9
Matthew Stafford: 12.6
Matt Ryan: 12.4
Sam Bradford: 11.9
Trevor Lawrence: 11.7
Zach Wilson: 11.7
Mitchell Trubisky: 11.2
Bryce Young: 9.8
David Carr: 9.4

There are definitely some success stories from slow starters, but it is hard to flagplant Ward.

Having said that, Ward got significant reinforcements with the additions of Carnell Tate (Round 1) and Wan'Dale Robinson (free agent). The team also revamped its coaching staff with Robert Saleh taking over as head coach and Brian Daboll moving into the OC spot.

Daboll has some strong seasons on his resume, but they all came with dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen, Daniel Jones and Jaxson Dart. Overall, he has not been a great schemer over the last three years.

Motion at the snap: 31% (bad)
Two-WR sets: 26% (below average)
Play Action: 22% (below average)

Mike Kafka was technically the playcaller most of that time with the Giants, but it's hard to give an offensive-minded head coach a complete pass. With the addition of Robinson, who Daboll helped unlock in New York, the team is likely planning to use three WRs often in 2026. That by itself isn't a huge deal. Teams should field their best players. But it means less target consolidation.

However, to unlock more for Ward, we need more motion and play action. That is a significant question mark heading into 2026 with Daboll at the controls.

Ward didn't use his legs much as a rookie with 9.4 rushing YPG and 1.6 rushing PPG. But we could see slightly more from the young QB under Daboll.

Bottom Line: Some of the best late-round QB fantasy gems have come from Year 2 players. Given the upgrades on offense, Ward is a QB sleeper in fantasy for 2026.

Tier 7: Projected 17-Game Starters

Bryce Young | Panthers: Young has yet to put up a meaningful fantasy season with 9.8, 13.9, and 13.6 PPG. But is a safe bet to play out the season as the starter with Kenny Pickett as the next-best option. Technically, he has decent weapons in Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker. But we have major question marks with Brad Idzik calling plays.
Aaron Rodgers | Steelers: Rodgers is actually one of my favorite best ball picks because he goes so late in drafts and should be the starter all season. He reunites with Mike McCarthy in an offense that added Michael Pittman Jr. (trade) and Germie Bernard (Round 2 NFL Draft). Rodgers hasn't shown the knack for big downfield plays we saw during his prime, and he has scored 15.1 and 14.1 PPG over the last two years.

Tier 8: Split QB Rooms

Fernando Mendoza | Raiders: Mendoza should start at some point, but it is hard to say when. Klint Kubiak runs a Shanahan-style scheme, but aside from Brock Bowers, the team doesn't have any proven receivers.
Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals: Brissett averaged a surprising 19.3 PPG last season in 12 starts. He returns as the incumbent starter with a new play caller in Mike LaFleur—another Shanahan-McVay disciple. However, the Cardinals carry the lowest projected win total (3.5) and will likely want to get a look at Carson Beck (Round 3 NFL Draft) at some point.
Geno Smith | Jets: Smith averaged 15.1, 15.7 and 11.6 PPG over the last two seasons. He has a strong group of young weapons in Garrett Wilson, Kenyon Sadiq (Round 1), Omar Cooper (Round 1), Adonai Mitchell and Breece Hall. Unfortunately, Frank Reich has not been a plus-schemer, and the Jets' 5.5-win total is the third-worst. Smith is also facing off-field domestic abuse allegations. Cade Klubnik (Round 4) could be under center at some point.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix | Falcons: Tagovailoa is the favorite based on early reports, with Penix recovering from an ACL injury. Kevin Stefanski is the new OC and technically has a history with the Shanahan scheme from his time with Gary Kubiak in Minnesota. Tommy Reese will call plays, coming from Cleveland with Stefanski. Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts form a strong trio of weapons that could unlock spike week potential for one of these QBs.
Deshaun Watson vs. Shedeur Sanders | Browns: Watson is the early favorite, but this battle will play out in training camp. The Browns have invested in offensive weapons, securing Harold Fannin in 2025 and adding KC Concepcion (Round 1) and Denzel Boston (Round 2) to play with Jerry Jeudy at WR. Historically, Todd Monken has been a plus coordinator when he has quality QB play, but that is a significant question mark for the offense.

Players Mentioned in this Article

JoshAllen
QBBUF
PPG
23.2
Proj
365.5
LamarJackson
QBBAL
PPG
16.3
Proj
332.8
DrakeMaye
QBNE
PPG
19.5
Proj
312.2
JoeBurrow
QBCIN
PPG
17.4
Proj
306.6

Published Jul 3, 2026, 12:18 PM ETUpdated Jul 3, 2026, 12:31 PM ET