NFL Spread Picks for Week 6: Why We Like the Patriots to Cover

After struggling to find his footing earlier in the year, Drake Maye has been able to round back into dominant form, leading the New England Patriots to a pair of wins over the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders. With the New York Jets on deck, Maye will be able to build on his momentum while lighting up the scoreboard, resulting in a lopsided affair.

NFL Spread Picks for Week 6

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-7) (-110, Caesars)

Even with A.J. Brown still out with an injury, Drake Maye has been able to break out of a slump while ranking in the top 15 in QB EPA per play, CPOE, and success rate. Maye’s resurgence has elevated the New England Patriots' offense as a whole, carrying the team back to the top of the board in offensive DVOA.

In a divisional matchup against the New York Jets, Maye will be able to continue to air out the ball while picking apart a secondary that struggles in coverage, per below-league-average marks in dropback EPA allowed per play and havoc. With the Jets struggling to create disruptions, Maye will be able to quickly get into a groove while operating in a clean pocket, improving the quality of his throws.

On the other side of the field, the Patriots' defensive line generates pressure at the ninth-highest rate in the league, allowing the second level to anchor in coverage to help cover more ground on the back end. With extra bodies spread across the middle, the width of Geno Smith’s passing lanes will narrow, leading to a higher volume of turnover-worthy plays.

Carolina Panthers (+1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-115, Fanatics)

Even when the Philadelphia Eagles were at full strength, the team was seriously flawed, dropping down to the bottom half of the board in EPA on both sides of the ball. Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith going down with injuries has not made it any easier for the Eagles, putting more pressure on Jalen Hurts to keep the offense afloat while surrounded by backups.

Unfortunately for Philadelphia, the Eagles' struggles on offense are poised to persist against Carolina while battling it out against a defense that quietly resides in the top 5 in defensive rush success rate. By holding the Eagles comfortably behind the line to gain on early downs, Carolina will lower Hurts' probability of converting, increasing the Panthers' chances of creating an early out.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-12.5) (-109, BetRivers)

At 2-3, it’s safe to say the Los Angeles Rams have grossly underperformed, desperately needing to bounce back to help avoid falling into too deep of a hole for the team to climb out of. While the offense has played at a competitive level, the defense has underwhelmed, slipping down to 19th in weighted EPA allowed per play.

Heading into Sunday’s divisional contest against the Arizona Cardinals, the Rams will have a great opportunity to get into a groove by neutralizing an offense that struggles to get into scoring position, per bottom-10 marks in DVOA and EPA. The lack of protection Jacoby Brissett receives from the interior of the offensive line will also allow Aaron Donald to generate pressure at a higher rate, forcing the Cardinals' QB to get the ball out of his hands shortly after the snap.

To help pull away on the scoreboard, Matthew Stafford will be able to consistently march the Rams down the field by throwing over the top of a secondary that ranks 25th in dropback EPA allowed per play. When in scoring position, the Cardinals' second level will be forced to stretch out in an attempt to neutralize Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, creating more room in the middle for Kyren Williams to exploit.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers (-1) (-108, BetRivers)

Since the start of the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys have been abysmal on defense, limping into Week 6 ranked dead last in defensive DVOA. The Cowboys' 24.5% sits just 0.1% higher than the 1986 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.4%, the lowest defensive DVOA in the history of the league.

With the Cowboys' defensive line struggling to generate pressure, Jordan Love’s pass catchers will have more time in the open field to create separation, leading to an uptick in the Packers' total number of explosive plays. The Cowboys' inability to stuff the run will also make it easier for MarShawn Lloyd to generate sizable gains on the ground, giving the Packers the versatility they need to consistently stay ahead of the sticks.