NFL Player Props Week 6: Chasing Drake London

We’ve got some healthy game totals on the Week 6 slate, and I’m attacking the receiving markets. Two picks come from the same potential shootout, while the third is about following the targets in an offense that should spend plenty of time throwing.

All betting odds are via FanDuel.

Week 6 NFL Player Prop Bets

Drake London Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

I know. That’s a big number. But Drake London is an alpha, and his usage with Michael Penix makes this line a lot easier to stomach.

Last season, London’s target share with Penix was north of 30%. His splits with other quarterbacks were so dramatic they almost looked made up. The connection between these two isn’t something I’m interested in ignoring.

London’s overall target share this season sits near 25%, including time when Penix was unavailable. Across the last three weeks with Penix, however, we’re right back in familiar territory: a 31% target rate and a ridiculous 52% air-yards share.

There aren’t many offenses with opportunities concentrated this heavily. It’s a whole lot of London and Bijan Robinson.

Chicago ranks dead last in yards allowed per target, giving London a favorable matchup in a game that should feature plenty of offense. Neither defense is exactly making opposing coordinators lose sleep.

London isn’t the fastest receiver in football, but he has a knack for getting open and winning catches. There’s a little Mike Evans in there.

The key is Penix. Despite being banged up, the expectation is that he’ll start for Atlanta. Provided that holds, I’m comfortable backing London at this number.

Colston Loveland Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Let’s stay in the same game and head to the bargain bin.

Atlanta–Chicago carries a 50.5-point total, one of five games north of 50 this week. We’re indoors, the defenses are vulnerable and Caleb Williams appears likely to return.

That’s an environment where I want exposure to Colston Loveland. Don’t spend too much time staring at his advanced numbers. The target share isn’t going to make you feel warm and fuzzy. It might make you vomit.

But we’re not asking for 90 yards. We need 37.

Loveland is talented enough to cover a large chunk of that on one play, and it’s not like he’s been completely absent from the offense. He has 18 targets across his last three games.

That’s enough involvement to keep me interested at this price, especially against an Atlanta defense that hasn’t offered much resistance.

We just need a few catches in a game with plenty of scoring potential. This feels like a reasonable spot to buy low, especially with Williams likely back in the fold.

Kendrick Bourne Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With Marvin Harrison Jr. out of the equation, Kendrick Bourne has an opportunity to keep contributing.

Last week, his 14% target share didn’t jump off the page. But it was tied for second on the Cardinals, and it translated into seven targets because Jacoby Brissett had to throw so much.

We could get a similar script this week.

Arizona is a double-digit road underdog against the Rams. If the Cardinals fall behind, the passing volume should follow.

Bourne runs nearly three-quarters of his routes from the slot, and the Rams have allowed a 30.8% target percentage to slot receivers, a top-10 mark.

That’s the combination I’m chasing: available targets, a favorable alignment matchup and a game script that should keep Arizona throwing.

We don’t need fireworks. A handful of productive catches can get Bourne home.