Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks, Odds, Predictions, and Player Props for SNF Week 9

We have an intriguing Sunday Night Football matchup on tap for Week 9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to Chicago to take on the Bears, with the Bears listed as 6.0-point home favorites. The NFL betting total sits at 47.5 points.

Tampa Bay is coming off a historic win last week, though not for a reason they would’ve hoped. They became the first team to win a game with zero completions since 1974, with Baker Mayfield going 0-for-3 in a rout of the Falcons. Mayfield attempted just 11 passes the week prior, so the Bucs have become one of the most run-heavy teams in football. That can work with an elite defense, which the Bucs appear to have; they currently rank first in the league in EPA per play defensively.

Meanwhile, the Bears have rattled off three straight wins since getting Caleb Williams back from injury. The last two were against the two competitors in last year’s Super Bowl, including a 17-point win over the defending champs in Seattle. It was one of the most impressive performances of the year, and it established the Bears as legit contenders.

Can the Bears string together another win, or will the Buccaneers pull off the upset? Let’s dive into all the betting numbers.

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds For Week 9

Spread: Bears -6.0 (-110; DraftKings)
Moneyline: Bears -275; Buccaneers +225
Game Total: 47.5

The Bears made a big swing last week, trading two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick for defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons. He paid immediate dividends in his first game with his new team. He was an absolute menace against the Seahawks, racking up a sack, two TFLs and six tackles.

The Bears’ defense was already trending in the right direction, and adding Simmons has the potential to be a game-changer. They’re up to eighth in EPA per play defensively, and they could continue to climb over the second half of the year.

That said, the Bears’ defense is still less impressive than their offense. Williams has been a legit MVP candidate when on the field this season. He’s averaged 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt with six touchdowns and one interception, and he’s added two more scores on the ground. Add in a host of playmakers and a solid run game, and the Bears seemingly have no flaws. They’re up to +800 to win the Super Bowl on FanDuel, putting them behind just the 49ers and Bills.

RELATED: Fantasy Life's NFL Betting Game Model provides bettors with projected spreads, totals and projected win percentage for the home team to help bettors accurately handicap all Week 9 games.

Tampa Bay is a bit more of a question mark. Their defense is undoubtedly good, and their run game has been excellent the past two weeks. They had 258 rushing yards two weeks ago vs. the Panthers, and they followed it up with 324 last week vs. the Falcons. Bucky Irving remains one of the league’s most underappreciated runners, while Kenneth Gainwell has averaged 5.0 yards per carry this season.

The bigger question is whether the Buccaneers can pass the ball when they have to. That’s been a struggle so far this season. Mayfield has averaged a career-worst 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt, and he has just three touchdown passes across his five games.

Mayfield should at least get some help this week. Emeka Egbuka appears poised to return to the lineup after missing the past two weeks. He’s officially listed as questionable, but he was able to practice in full on both Thursday and Friday. If he’s back, it will give the team a clear-cut top option in the passing attack: Egbuka has a 27% target share for the year.

Ultimately, Mayfield is going to have to make some throws for the Bucs to win this week. Having the receiving corps at close to full strength makes that more possible.

Prediction & Pick For Bears vs. Buccaneers Week 9 Matchup

The Pick: Under 47.5 (-110; FanDuel)

While the Bears’ offense is one of the best in football (10th in EPA per play), they could struggle a bit more than usual in this spot. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per carry and the 10th-fewest yards per attempt, so they should be able to keep Chicago somewhat in check.

As long as the Bears don’t go for 30+, I have zero faith in Tampa Bay pushing this game over. Mayfield dealt with injuries at the start of the year, and he really hasn’t had to do much of late. He still grades out as one of the worst starting passers in the entire NFL.

If the Buccaneers can’t run for 200+ yards, Mayfield is going to struggle to pick up the slack. Getting Egbuka back will help, but that’s not exactly a cure-all for their passing attack.

The fact that the Buccaneers have been so run-heavy is another good sign for the under. Running plays keep the clock moving, so even if the Bucs do have success on the ground, it should come via long drives.

One way or another, I expect points to be at a premium.

Best Player Prop Bet For Bears vs. Buccaneers

Kenneth Gainwell Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-114; FanDuel)

Gainwell is the clear No. 2 back in this offense. He was limited to five carries or fewer in each of his first seven games before erupting for 14 and 25 in the past two weeks. Those are clear outliers. The Buccaneers were in clear control of those games, and they ran the ball a ton. They’ve had at least 49 attempts in back-to-back games, so Gainwell has still handled just 40% of their carries in those outings.

The Bucs won’t have that level of volume vs. the Bears, but they should still be run-oriented in this contest. Chicago’s biggest weakness defensively has been on the ground, with the team ranking 22nd in yards per carry allowed.

I think something like six to eight carries is pretty reasonable for Gainwell in this matchup as long as the Bears don’t pull away early. With his efficiency so far this season, that should be enough to get to 22 rushing yards.