NFL Parlay Picks for Week 9: The Underdog Panthers Against the Broncos and More

Oh, what a week it almost was. We nailed our two most ambitious selections in Week 8, cashing with the Cardinals ML (+270) and a Chris Rodriguez anytime touchdown (+340). We also won our underpriced favorite with the Lions, so all we needed was a Ravens win to clear a parlay of roughly +6250.

Of course, it wasn’t meant to be. Lamar Jackson got injured on his first dropback, and even Snoop Huntley failed to make it through the game unscathed. It left the Ravens with undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano at QB, and you’re simply not going to beat the Bills with your third-string quarterback.

We’re back to the drawing board for NFL Week 9. Unfortunately, there aren’t a ton of big-money underdogs that stand out to me this week. These selections are a bit less ambitious than last week, so maybe that will help us put one in the win column.

Let’s dive into four of my favorite parlay pieces for Week 9.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 9

The Underpriced Favorite

Bills ML (-170) at Vikings

I successfully faded the Vikings last week, and I’m going right back to the well in Week 9. They’ll be at home this week, but they’ll face an even larger test than they did vs. the Lions. Buffalo has been the best offensive team in football this season, with Josh Allen playing the best of any QB in the league. He’s already accounted for 20 total touchdowns through just seven weeks, and he appears on his way toward taking home his second MVP award.

The Vikings are still in very good shape to make the playoffs at 6-1, but their resume is extremely unimpressive. They haven’t played many good teams, and when they have, their defense has typically been enough to carry them to wins. That’s not going to be the case vs. Buffalo. You simply cannot stop their offense completely, with the Bills scoring at least 24 points in each game this season. They’ve had at least 33 points in five of them, so the Vikings are going to have to put some points on the board to compete this week.

That’s going to be easier said than done. The Vikings are currently 30th in EPA per play, and they’ve averaged the fourth-fewest yards per game. They’ll also be without Kyler Murray at quarterback, leaving the team with Carson Wentz. Wentz is a capable backup, but I don’t like his chances of keeping up with Allen.

The Underdog

Panthers ML (+130) vs. Broncos

The Panthers are one of my favorite spread bets this week, but I also really like them on the moneyline. The Broncos may have a good record dating back to the start of last season, but they are simply not a great team. They’ve won 15 consecutive one-score games and have routinely erased late deficits. Eventually, that’s going to catch up with them.

There’s no reason it can’t be this week. The fact that the team could be extremely thin in the secondary only helps. They did get back Patrick Surtain last week, but they currently have three other players in their secondary listed as DNPs at practice. The Panthers' WR duo of Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker may not have the most name value, but they’ve been an imposing pair so far this season.

The Panthers should also be able to move the ball on the ground. Denver is merely 25th in rush defense EPA this season, and Chuba Hubbard has turned in some solid performances on the ground of late.

Add in the fact that the Panthers are at home, and I think the wrong team is favored in this spot.

The Longshot

Commanders ML (+193) vs. Rams

The Rams have seemingly righted the ship in recent weeks, posting back-to-back convincing wins over the Raiders and Chargers. They could also get back Myles Garrett this week, with the star edge rusher returning to practice for the first time since suffering an injury in Week 1.

Still, I have some concerns about the Rams. Specifically, their roster is extremely top-heavy, and they’re still missing some key players. Guys like Davante Adams, Jaylen Watson, and Poona Ford were expected to be big parts of the equation, and they’ll now have to survive without them.

Meanwhile, the Commanders have been competitive all year. When they’ve had Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota at QB, the team has gone toe-to-toe with most opponents. They even managed to upset the Seahawks at home back in Week 3.

This line has come down to Commanders +4.5, and if they can cover that number, there’s no reason they can’t win the game outright.

The Touchdown Prop

Quinshon Judkins Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+110)

I typically like to wade in deeper waters for my anytime TD props, but I can’t pass up Quinshon Judkins to score at anything better than even money. He should get all the carries he can handle with DeShaun Watson out of the lineup, and they’ll come against a very exploitable Saints defense. New Orleans is dead last in EPA per rush defensively, and they’ve allowed 1.6 rushing TDs per game. Only the Panthers (1.7) have been worse.

Judkins has 100% of the Browns’ carries from inside the five-yard line this season. As long as their offense doesn’t go completely stagnant with Shedeur Sanders under center, I think it’s very likely that Judkins finds the paint.

Final Parlay: Roughly +2150

Add all four picks together, and you get a parlay of roughly +2150. As mentioned previously, this is significantly less ambitious than previous parlays I’ve built in this article.

That said, I don’t want to force it. I’m going with four picks that I believe offer some value individually and looking to combine them. If the numbers push me toward more “conservative” options some weeks, so be it.

Best of luck to all of you in Week 9!