NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 9: Can the Patriots Keep Up with the Packers?

Week 8 was a mediocre showing in this column. We ultimately finished 2-2, with one of our losses coming in Ravens-Bills. It’s pretty safe to say that game was never going over once someone named Joe Fagnano ended up playing quarterback.
Our other loss was with Broncos-Chiefs. That game featured much more scoring than I anticipated, with the two teams combining for 52 total points.

On a more positive note, our over in Raiders-Jets and under in Falcons-Buccaneers both cashed very comfortably. The weather in Tampa Bay certainly worked in our favor, with neither team able to do much in the passing game.

Now, we shift our NFL betting focus to Week 9. We’ve got a slightly larger slate on the docket, with just two teams on bye this week (Steelers and Titans). As usual, I’ll dive into my two favorite overs and two favorite unders. Hopefully, we can get another streak going after racking up an 11-1 record from Weeks 5 through 7.

Week 9 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins Over 50.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -115

Is the Lions’ defense back? It’s possible. They got healthier over the bye week, and adding Brian Branch to their secondary is clearly a big development.

However, they still have a ways to go towards proving they’re legit. You get no credit for shutting down the Vikings, while the Packers still moved the ball pretty consistently against them two weeks ago.

This week’s matchup vs. the Dolphins is interesting. Miami has not been a good offensive team overall, but they have shown some improvement of late. They’ve averaged just under 24 points per game over their past three contests, and they’re 10th in EPA per play over that time frame.

Ultimately, if the Dolphins can get to their recent average, that should be more than enough to push this game toward the over. We know what Detroit is capable of offensively, and they should have a field day against the Dolphins. Their defense is 29th in EPA per play for the year; Detroit has the potential for 30+ points.

RELATED: Fantasy Life's NFL Betting Game Model provides bettors with projected spreads, totals and projected win percentage for the home team to help bettors accurately handicap all Week 9 games.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots Over 44.5

Best Price: -110; FanDuel
Play To: -120

The Patriots’ offense got off to a slow start this season. They scored 10 points or fewer in two of their first three outings, while Drake Maye looked nothing like the guy who finished second in MVP voting the year prior.

However, that stretch came against a gauntlet of opposing defenses (Seahawks, Steelers and Jaguars). All three currently rank in the top seven in EPA per play defensively, with Jacksonville and Seattle both ranking in the top four.

Once they got out of that stretch, the Patriots’ offense has been as good as advertised. From Week 4 on, they’re first in the league in EPA per play. Their offense waited until the second half to wake up last week in Miami, but they’ve still managed at least 24 points in five straight games.

Meanwhile, the Packers are up to eighth in EPA per play over the past five weeks. Their run game is still MIA despite the return of Josh Jacobs, but they’re passing the ball extremely efficiently.

Both of these teams have capable defenses, but I think the offenses are being a bit undervalued. Our NFL Game Model agrees, with the projected total for this matchup sitting at 46.4 points.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles Under 38.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: -115

I’m not sure about you guys, but any time I hear “J.J. McCarthy vs. Joe Milton,” my brain immediately points toward the under. While McCarthy has impressed in his two appearances with the Giants, he still has a lot to prove as an NFL starting quarterback. It’s going to take more than just a couple of games to erase what he did in Minnesota.

That said, my skepticism for the Giants is nothing compared to my skepticism for the Eagles. Milton will be making his first start of the year, and it’s possible he’s a slight upgrade over Tanner McKee. McKee was absolutely dreadful in his three games for the Eagles, despite a pretty soft group of opposing defenses.

The bigger concern is that Milton will have very little to work with. Saquon Barkley appears to be a shell of himself at this point, and he’s been limited to 15% and 32% of the snaps in his previous two outings. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks have missed the team’s past two games, and neither appears likely to return vs. New York. Even the Eagles’ once dominant offensive line is no longer imposing: they’re in the bottom half of the league in both pass block and run block win rate (per ESPN).

Philly has failed to eclipse 17 points in three of their past four games, and the Giants are tougher defensively than most of their recent opponents. I see no reason why that changes in Week 9. Add in the fact that it is expected to be pretty windy, and this game is a clear under.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5

Best Price: -108; BetMGM
Play To: -115

There is no bigger stylistic clash this week than Bills-Vikings. The Bills have been an over machine, posting a 5-2 record to the over, while the Vikings are 6-1 to the under. Buffalo ranks first in the league in EPA per play, while the Vikings are No. 2 in EPA per play defensively.

Which style will ultimately prevail? Well, we just saw the Vikings face a similar type of opponent in the Lions. They’re not quite as dominant as the Bills offensively, but they’ve also been worse on defense to start the year. That game featured just 34 total points, with the Lions prevailing 19-15.

Ultimately, I don’t think anyone can stop the Bills from scoring 20+ points at this point. The bigger question is: Can the Vikings hold up their end of the bargain? I’m skeptical. They’ll be without starting QB Kyler Murray this week, and while Carson Wentz is a capable backup, it’s still a bit of a downgrade.

The Vikings were already 30th in EPA per play, 29th in yardage and 27th in points, so any sort of downgrade has the potential to be a killer. Even against the Bills’ porous defense, I don’t think they can do enough scoring to push this game over.