Week 4 Guillotine Leagues™️ ADP Risers & Fallers: Brock Purdy Ascending

It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, almost one quarter of the way through our yearly fantasy football jaunt. And one of the beauties of Guillotine Leagues^TM is that every week can be a new beginning. That’s because drafts are happening all season. So instead of needing 18 teams for a full-season Guillotine League, now you need just 15 teams to be playing for all the marbles in Week 17. And just lop off a team every week.

To help you out with your drafting, here are the risers and fallers in Guillotine League fantasy football ADP in the last week. And to help you with your research, check out our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections.

Week 4 Players Rising in Guillotine Leagues ADP

Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 30.6

ADP: 61.2

Finally it looks like not just the league, but fantasy football and in this case, Guillotine League managers are putting respect on the man heretofore known as Mr. Irrelevant. Brock Purdy has thrown for 9 TDs and has top-10 finishes in all three games, including a QB1 overall finish last week. The Broncos were a formidable defense last year, but are No. 9 overall in most passing yards allowed to QBs at 254.3. This game is at home for the 49ers, so a boost for Purdy.

Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 13.2

ADP: 49.3

FREE TUTEN! That’s been the battle cry for several of our Fantasy Life staff members. And while a high mark of 64 in Utilization Score in Week 3 for Bhayshul Tuten may not be where we want it, the work has been consistent. He has double-digit carries in each game and has caught all 5 of his targets. He even punched in a 1-yard score, thanks to a Trevor Lawrence kneeldown. The Bengals come to Duuuuvallll fresh off allowing Jaylen Warren to go for 176 scrimmage yards. Darn Tuten, we want to draft him.

Josh Downs | WR | 30.3

ADP: 78.4

Turning 20 targets into 12 catches for 149 yards in the past two games is a good sign that Josh Downs has become a larger part of the Colts’ passing game. Last week, he got a 29% target share and a 15.4 aDOT. So he’s getting moved around, not just in the slot. Now he gets the Commanders, who are far and away allowing the most fantasy points to WRs at 46.4. Smash spot for someone you’re drafting to your starting lineup.

Travis Kelce | TE | +33.8

ADP: 64.3

Watching Travis Kelce party like it’s 2021, it’s easy to think that married life is agreeing with him. Only 4 of the 18 targets thrown his way have hit the ground, and he has 231 yards with 2 TDs, both scores in the last two weeks. And if you select him, he’ll be facing a Raiders defense that is fresh off giving up 4 TD receptions to the Saints’ TEs last week. It’s a love story, baby, just keep it going.

Week 4 Players Falling in Guillotine Leagues ADP

Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | -14.8

ADP: 65.1

Funny what a clunker of a game on Monday Night Football will do for a player’s ADP. Jalen Hurts just didn’t look in sync most of the night against the Bears, throwing for only 153 scoreless yards. He did throw for 5 TDs in the previous two games, and scored on a 1-yard plunge on MNF. The Rams have a legit secondary, allowing just 174 passing yards to QBs (2nd in the league). Tough matchup, so if you don’t want to risk a chop, shop another aisle for your QB.

MarShawn Lloyd | RB | GB | -26.9

ADP: 101.8

It may be Joever for the MarShawn Lloyd breakout that we kept wishcasting for all summer. Just 4 rush attempts and 18 total yards in Week 3. The o-line has been problematic for the Packers, so there’s been little to no room for him to get going. Now they face a Buccaneers defense that’s allowing the second-fewest rushing yards to RBs.

Luther Burden | WR | CHI | -23.8

ADP: 78.9

Interesting that Luther Burden is seeing his ADP drop after a 7-61-1 performance on MNF against the Eagles. His UR Score of 67 matched that of Kalif Raymond … that was not a misprint. The problem with being one of the Bears’ talented group of pass catchers is that the targets have not gotten consolidated. Burden’s Week 3 game was the only one with double-digit points. So if you select him into your starting lineup, beware that a down target week could get you chopped.

Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | -22.7

ADP: 135.2

We had so much hope, and I’m not just saying that, as I have a Guillotine League team still somehow alive while starting Kyle Pitts weekly. Matthew pointed out in the Week 4 Love/Hate recap that Pitts has scored 8 or fewer points in 9 of 13 games with Michael Penix as the Falcons’ starting QB. But could this be a week for Pitts to do well, facing a Saints defense that just got torched for 10-116-1 by Brock Bowers?