
Upgrades For Week 7 Tight End Rankings: Tucker Kraft About To Pop
Matthew Freedman unveiled his favorite tight end plays for fantasy football in Week 7.
Let's get into the Week 7 TE edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 7 favorites and fades.
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Week 7 Tight End Rankings
| Rank | Player |
|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers |
| 2 | George Kittle |
| 3 | Trey McBride |
| 4 | Isaiah Likely |
| 5 | Sam LaPorta |
| 6 | Tucker Kraft |
| 7 | Colston Loveland |
| 8 | Travis Kelce |
| 9 | Dallas Goedert |
| 10 | Juwan Johnson |
| 11 | Harold Fannin |
| 12 | Tyler Higbee |
| 13 | Kyle Pitts |
| 14 | Pat Freiermuth |
| 15 | Hunter Henry |
Week 7 Matchup Upgrades: Tucker Kraft at Lions & Mason Taylor vs. Dolphins
There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.
Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Lions and Dolphins are two of the biggest flow chart defenses for TE.
- Lions: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+12.8)
- Dolphins: No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (34.9%)
Bang a gong.
Tucker Kraft (Packers) at Lions: Fantasy investors are still waiting for Kraft to have his first truly big performance of the season. So far, he has been disappointingly mediocre in both production (7.3 fantasy points per game, 25-249-1 receiving, 37 targets with 2-5-0 rushing) and usage (69% route rate, 17% target share, 9% air yard share, 11% end zone target share, 66 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). This week, though, we could finally get a big game. The Lions are off the bye, they've had the No. 2 home-field advantage over the past five years (+7.69, per NFElo), and QB Jordan Love tends to underwhelm on the road (12-18-1 ATS, -23.0% ROI), but divisional road dogs are often sharp (749-641-37 ATS, 4.6% ROI), and HC Matt LaFleur has outperformed as a dog of at least a field goal (18-6-2 ATS, 39.8% ROI, per Action Network). Additionally, the Lions are dealing with injuries to SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP), FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP), No. 3 S Avonte Maddox (foot, IR) and No. 4 S Thomas Harper (ankle, IR).
Mason Taylor (Jets) vs. Dolphins: The rookie Kenyon Sadiq flashed in Week 3 with Taylor sidelined due to injury (20.0 fantasy points, 7-105-1 receiving, 8 targets, 89 Utilization Score), but then in Week 4 he did nothing (0-0-0, 4 targets), in Week 5 Taylor returned, and in Week 6 Taylor played well ahead of him (5.3 fantasy points, 4-33-0 receiving, 6 targets, 70% route rate, 67 Utilization Score vs. 1.7 fantasy points, 1-12-0 receiving, 3 targets, 36% route rate, 31 Utilization Score). I'm not at all confident that Taylor will play as the No. 1 TE this week, and I believe Sadiq has the higher usage-agnostic upside … but Taylor is probably good enough to exploit this matchup against the Dolphins, who could be without CBs Julius Brents (neck) and Reese Taylor (quadriceps) and SS Michael Taaffe (chest) in the secondary. I might consider starting Taylor in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.
Week 7 Scoring Upgrades: Mark Andrews vs. Bengals & George Kittle at Falcons
Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the TE."
This week, the Ravens are No. 2 in implied team total (26.75 points); the 49ers, No. 4 (26.5).
Upgrades warranted.
Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Bengals: Right now the Ravens (in my opinion) are priced as if QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) will play. If he does, that would be a boost for Andrews, who was at his best this season with Jackson in Weeks 1-4 (7.5 fantasy points per game, 18-149-1 receiving, 24 targets, 71% route rate, 73 Utilization Score). The Bengals are coming off the bye, but they're also No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (29.9%), and with No. 2 WR Rashod Bateman (shoulder) uncertain, Andrews could have more opportunities this week.
George Kittle (49ers) at Falcons: No. 1 WR Mike Evans (Achilles) exited last week with an injury, and No. 2 WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out. Kittle could be the No. 1 pass catcher for the 49ers in this game, and since Week 2, in his five games without No. 2 TE Jake Tonges (knee, IR), Kittle has been perhaps the best player at the position (14.9 fantasy points per game, 24-325-5 receiving, 31 targets, 91 Utilization Score). The setup isn't great. The 49ers are on a one-day deficit. They're traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff. And the Falcons are on their third straight game at home, where they have a boosted edge because they're outside division, on turf (vs. grass) and indoors (vs. outdoors). Still, the Falcons could be without LBs Divine Deablo (arm) and Kendal Daniels (neck) and CBs C.J. Henderson (groin) and Billy Bowman (hamstring).
Week 7 Injury Upgrades: Dallas Goedert vs. Cowboys & Hunter Henry at Bears
Here are a couple TEs who get upgrades because of offensive and/or defensive injuries.
Dallas Goedert (Eagles) vs. Cowboys: Goedert exited Week 2 with a knee injury and missed Weeks 3-4, but in Week 1 he went off (21.7 fantasy points, 4-77-2 receiving, 5 targets, 93 Utilization Score), and since returning in Week 5, he has had solid usage (73% route rate, 22% target share, 77 Utilization Score) if not good production (8.0 fantasy points per game, 12-99-0 receiving, 17 targets). This week, I imagine he'll turn opportunities into fantasy points against the Cowboys, who are without SS Jalen Thompson (hamstring, IR) and No. 3 S P.J. Locke (foot, IR) and could also be without LBs Dee Winters (Achilles) and DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring). It's suboptimal that HC Nick Sirianni has been hilariously incompetent as a home dog (1-7 ATS, -76.1% ROI), but at least the Cowboys are on their fifth away game in seven weeks, whereas the Eagles are on their third home game in four weeks.
Hunter Henry (Patriots) at Bears: No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (ankle) has been limited in practice this week, and Nos. 2-3 WRs Romeo Doubs (shoulder, IR) and Mack Hollins (calf, IR) are out, so Henry could have extra opportunities. Since Week 4 when Hollins exited, Henry has been a functional part of the offense (11.1 fantasy points per game, 12-154-2 receiving, 14 targets, 66 Utilization Score). This is a subpar spot: The Bears over the past five years have had the league's No. 4 home-field advantage (+5.54), and they have a boosted home edge against the Pats because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). But the Bears could be without LBs T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and Keyshaun Elliott (quadriceps).
Notes
Week 7 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.
- Introduction
- QB Favorites
- QB Fades
- RB Favorites
- RB Fades
- WR Favorites
- WR Fades
- TE Favorites
- TE Fades
Byes: This week, the Bills, Jaguars, Commanders, and Chargers are off.
Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish
- Thu AM: Refresh
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
- Sat PM: Update
- Sun AM: Revise
- Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Players Mentioned in this Article
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