Upgrades For Week 1 Quarteback Rankings: Justin Herbert Highlights Freedman's QB Favorites

Let's get into the Week 1 QB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 1 favorites and fades.

Week 1 Quarterback Rankings

Rank	Player
1	Josh Allen
2	Drake Maye
3	Lamar Jackson
4	Jayden Daniels
5	Joe Burrow
6	Jalen Hurts
7	Caleb Williams
8	Justin Herbert
9	Jaxson Dart
10	Trevor Lawrence
11	Brock Purdy
12	Dak Prescott
13	Kyler Murray
14	Patrick Mahomes
15	Bo Nix
16	Malik Willis
17	Matthew Stafford
18	Jordan Love
19	Tyler Shough
20	Jared Goff

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QB Week 1 Matchup Upgrades: Jaxson Dart vs. Cowboys & Cam Ward vs. Jets

There are a few "flow chart" defenses so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever QBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him up my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Cowboys and Jets last year were two of the biggest flow chart defenses for QBs.

Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+5.1)
Jets: No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.291) and pass DVOA (45.3%)

Jaxson Dart (Giants) vs. Cowboys: Dart was a top-3 fantasy QB last year with 23.3 points per game in seven rookie starts with HC Brian Daboll thanks to his league-high 16% designed rush share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). His production declined after Daboll's dismissal and Dart's midseason concussion, but he could thrive in his second season under a new coaching staff. Week 1 has historically been the most profitable time to bet divisional underdogs (71-48-2 ATS, 15.9% ROI, per Action Network), and HC John Harbaugh has often started the regular season hot (12-6 ATS in Week 1, 31.5% ROI). It's a new season, so the Cowboys defense might be improved, but I still project it to be No. 29 this year.

Cam Ward (Titans) vs. Jets: Ward had some gunslinging highlights last season in his rookie campaign, but overall he was flat-out bad as a passer (5.8 AY/A, 59.8% completion rate, league-high 55 sacks) and paltry as a runner (39-159-2 rushing). I go into this with eyes open: Ward could suck in Week 1, so I'm not starting him in Guillotine Leagues. But with a new coaching staff (HC Robert Saleh, OC Brian Daboll), a renovated WR room (Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson to go with Calvin Ridley), and some natural second-year improvement, Ward could be a regularly viable superflex option this season, and in a good-ol' fashion #RevengeGame against his former team, Saleh could look to embarrass the defense he once coached by pouring on the points. The total for this game is only 38.5, but we have the over as a four-star bet with a projection of 41.8.

Week 1 Scoring Upgrades: Justin Herbert vs. Cardinals & Dak Prescott at Giants

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so I need to bump up the QB."

This week the Chargers are No. 1 in implied team total (28.5 points), and the Cowboys aren't far behind at No. 4 (25.5).

Upgrades warranted.

Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. Cardinals: About a month ago I said that Herbert is a breakout candidate who won't actually break out … but he could go off against the Cardinals, who last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (52.7%). In 2021, Herbert passed for 5,014 yards in his second year, and now he's paired with new OC Mike McDaniel, who coaxed a league-high 4,624 yards passing out of QB Tua Tagovailoa in 2023. On top of that, Herbert had a career-high 498 yards rushing last year. If the Chargers decide to let Herbert play at the peak of his potential, he could win an MVP. And for what it's worth, Herbert tends to outperform in Week 1 (4-1 ATS, 55.4% ROI), as does HC Jim Harbaugh (6-0 ATS, 100% ROI).

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) at Giants: In each of his two full campaigns over the past three years, Prescott has led the league with 400+ completions, which he has leveraged into 4,500+ yards and 30+ TDs passing. He's one of the league's purest pocket passers … and he dominates in division (32-15 ATS, 32.1% ROI). The Giants defense could struggle in its first game with new DC Dennard Wilson.

Week 1 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Kyler Murray vs. Packers & Tyler Shough at Lions

Here are a couple QBs who get upgrades because of defensive injuries.

Kyler Murray (Vikings) vs. Packers: First-team All-Pro EDGE Micah Parsons (knee, PUP) is out, and Murray handily won the No. 1 QB job for the Vikings in training camp. With HC Kevin O'Connell, WRs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings, and TE T.J. Hockenson, the veteran Murray now has the best skill-position supporting cast of his career, and he usually does well in Week 1 (5-1 ATS, 65.4% ROI). Plus, the Vikings were No. 2 in home-field advantage last year (+12.5, per NFElo). And for what it's worth, I like the Vikings to win the Super Bowl at +5000.

Tyler Shough (Saints) at Lions: Ordinarily, the Lions have one of the league's best S duos with SS Brian Branch (Achilles, PUP) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee, PUP) … but both are out to start the year. That means it's time for Shough to foughck. Despite being a second-round rookie last year, he balled out after the Week 11 bye as both a passer (256.9 yards per game) and runner (25.0 yards). One of my 2026 fantasy favorites, Shough has breakout upside in his second season. For the season, I like Shough to go over 3,499.5 passing yards.

Week 1 Indoors Upgrades: Jared Goff vs. Saints & Kirk Cousins vs. Dolphins

In general, I want to be heavy on QBs playing indoors, where they don't need to worry about wind, temperature or precipitation. Here are two such QBs who stand out.

Jared Goff (Lions) vs. Saints: Goff has 4,500+ yards and 30+ TDs passing in each of the past three seasons, and throughout his career he has been especially sharp indoors (48-27-1 ATS, 22.4% ROI) and in Week 1 (8-1 ATS, 72% ROI). With a 50-point over/under, this game could easily turn into a shootout.

Kirk Cousins (Raiders) vs. Dolphins: He's at home, he's indoors, he's no longer on the Falcons, and he's playing the Dolphins, who last year were No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.3%). What more do you want, my first-born child?

Notes

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.