RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 3 Fantasy Football: Jonathan Taylor, TreVeyon Henderson & More

Let's get into the Week 3 RB rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 3 favorites and fades.

Week 3 Running Back Rankings (Top 24) For Fantasy Football

To access all my fantasy football rankings, my weekly written content, our Fantasy HQ League Hub, our weekly player projections, and my personal NFL Game Model, use the promo code FREEDMAN for a 10% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Rank	Player
1	Jahmyr Gibbs
2	Kenneth Walker
3	Christian McCaffrey
4	Bijan Robinson
5	Derrick Henry
6	Ashton Jeanty
7	Jonathan Taylor
8	James Cook
9	Chase Brown
10	Javonte Williams
11	Saquon Barkley
12	Omarion Hampton
13	Breece Hall
14	De'Von Achane
15	Kyren Williams
16	D'Andre Swift
17	Bucky Irving
18	Chuba Hubbard
19	David Montgomery
20	Cam Skattebo
21	Jaylen Warren
22	Aaron Jones
23	Bhayshul Tuten
24	Jeremiyah Love

Week 3 Matchup Downgrades In My RB Rankings: Jonathan Taylor vs. Texans & Kyren Williams at Broncos

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Seahawks and Broncos last year were two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

Texans: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (-3.4)
Broncos: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (18.4)

Here be dragons.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs. Texans: Taylor has exceeded expectations with back-to-back games of 120+ yards and two TDs to open the year. The No. 1 RB in snaps (92%), Taylor is the entirety of the Colts offense right now. But that's the problem: I expect the Colts offense to struggle this week. It's theoretically good for Taylor that he's home … but the Texans have cut that advantage down to almost nothing because they're in the division, and they play on a similar turf surface in a similar domed stadium. Additionally, in two games last year against the Texans, Taylor was merely mortal (160 yards, no TDs on 35 carries, seven targets). Taylor is a great player, but this week he'll probably be just good.

Kyren Williams (Rams) at Broncos: Williams has been steady to open the season (14 and 14.7 fantasy points, 162 yards, two TDs on 23 carries, five targets, and a 70 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). People hold against him the fact that he must split the backfield with No. 2 RB Blake Corum … but Williams is the only guy in the league with 1,300+ yards and 13+ TDs in each of the past three seasons, and he's on pace to hit those numbers once again. But this week I'm tempering my enthusiasm. The Rams have traveled almost 17,000 miles so far this season (a league-worst mark), they're on a one-day rest deficit; and the Broncos are playing their second straight game in Denver, where they've had over the past five years the No. 2 home-field advantage (+7.42, per NFElo) and this week they have an even greater advantage against the Rams, who are outside of conference, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). Williams and the Rams offense could struggle, especially if No. 1 WR Puka Nacua (hip) is out once again.

RB Rankings: Week 3 Scoring Downgrades: TreVeyon Henderson at Jaguars & Bucky Irving vs. Vikings

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score many points, so I need to push down the RB."

Entering the season, I had a good amount of respect for the Patriots and Buccaneers offenses. But this week the Pats are No. 20 in implied team total (21 points), and the Bucs are No. 22 (20.5).

Downgrades warranted.

TreVeyon Henderson (Pats) at Jaguars: Henderson served as the No. 1 RB for the Pats in his Week 2 return to action (60% snap rate, 67% rush share, 41% route rate, 60 Utilization Score), and he leveraged his workload into a respectable performance (76 yards, one TD). But the Pats haven't scored more than 20 points in a game this year, and now they're on the road against the Jags, who last year had the No. 1 home-field advantage (+17.4). On top of that, the Pats are granting an additional edge to the Jags because they're outside of division and on grass (vs. turf). Add in the fact that RG Michael Onwenu (ankle) is injured and No. 2 RB Rhamondre Stevenson is always looming, and I'm skeptical of Henderson's Week 3 resembling his Week 2.

Bucky Irving (Bucs) vs. Vikings: Bucky's back! After an offseason of speculation that Irving would split work close to evenly with new No. 2 RB Kenneth Gainwell, Irving has dominated usage (70% snap rate, 69% rush share, 56% route rate, 90 Utilization Score) and looked like the guy who broke out as a rookie (183 yards, one TD on 25 carries, 11 targets). But the 0-2 Bucs have a tough matchup against the Vikings, who just held the Bears to three points one week after they put up 59, and HC Todd Bowles has historically been his worst in Week 3 (1-7 ATS, -75.8% ROI, per Action Network).

Week 3 Road Dog Downgrades In My Fantasy Football RB Rankings: Bijan Robinson at Packers & Omarion Hampton at Bills

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) at Packers: It's not as if you're benching Robinson in Guillotine Leagues™, but this is just a brutal spot. As +7 dogs, the Falcons don't know yet who their QB is for the game, they have a short week to prepare, and HC Kevin Stefanski is terrible on the road (19-33 ATS, -29.5% ROI). Additionally, the Falcons are significantly outside their primary play window (they have 13 games at 1 pm ET, whereas the Packers have six primetime games this year), and the Packers have an intensified home-field advantage against the Falcons, who are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). In Week 1, we saw Robinson's ceiling (173 yards, one TD). In Week 2, we saw his floor (81 yards, no TD). This week, I expect he'll be closer to his floor.

Omarion Hampton (Chargers) at Bills: The Chargers are coming off back-to-back 26-14 home losses against two notably inferior opponents … and now they're traveling across the country as +7 dogs for a 1 pm ET game against a Bills team that has three extra days of rest and is at home for a second straight game. On top of that, the Bills have a magnified home-field advantage against the Chargers, who are outside division, on grass (vs. turf), and outdoors (vs. indoors). And it hurts even more that Hampton could be without LG Kayode Awosika (leg) and blocking TE Charlie Kolar (forearm). His year-to-date numbers look good enough (158 yards, two TDs on 35 carries, two targets), but this is the kind of spot that mandates a downgrade for Hampton.

Offensive Injury Downgrades In The Week 3 RB Ranks: David Montgomery at Colts & Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs. Seahawks

Here are a couple RBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

David Montgomery (Texans) at Colts: Even when Montgomery went off in Week 1 (79 yards, three TDs), he wasn't technically "good" (3.4 yards per touch) … and then in Week 2 he was officially terrible (24 yards, no TDs). The matchup isn't prohibitive, but I'm skeptical the Texans offense will be able to move the ball and put up points without No. 1 WR Nico Collins (hamstring) as well as WRs Tank Dell (knee, IR) and Jayden Higgins (knee, IR), RT Braden Smith (foot, IR), and RG Ed Ingram (groin).

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs. Seahawks: Through two weeks, Bill's production has been "meh" (104 yards, one TD) and his efficiency has been "inefficient" (3.8 yards per carry, -1.0 yards per target). Now the Commanders are almost certain to be without QB Jayden Daniels (elbow), and they could be without their top-two blindside protectors in LTs Laremy Tunsil (triceps, IR) and Brandon Coleman (finger). Let's see, what else? What else? Oh! Yeah, the Seahawks last year were No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.205), defensive rush SR (35.8%), and defensive rush DVOA (-30.1%). So … not great.

Notes

Week 3 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Defensive Matchups: Since the season is just two weeks old, I still rely primarily on prior defensive data.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.