Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Outlook For 2026: A Repeat Of The MVP Magic?
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Matthew Stafford Fantasy Football Outlook For 2026: A Repeat Of The MVP Magic?

Ian Hartitz breaks down what to expect from Rams veteran QB Matthew Stafford ahead of the 2026 fantasy football season.

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After capturing the 2025 NFL MVP award en route to an NFC Championship appearance, Matthew Stafford extended his contract for an additional year with the Rams ahead of running it back with the band in 2026. How will it translate to fantasy football? Ian Hartitz breaks it down as part of his 2026 Los Angeles Rams Team Preview.

LA_rams-logo.svgCan Matthew Stafford Replicate His MVP Magic For Fantasy Football In 2026?

Stafford is aging like fine wine, fresh off leading the league in passing yards (4.707) and touchdowns (46). A pair of masterful late-season performances in losing efforts against the Seahawks in Week 16 (457-3-0) and in the NFC Championship (374-3-0) reflect the reality that the 17-year veteran remains very capable of playing at a league-best level on any given Sunday.

That said, Stafford has operated among the league's best QBs for the better part of his time in Los Angeles, but the fantasy results were seldom as juicy as last season.

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Last season's boom was undoubtedly helped by the addition of Davante Adams. Credit to Stafford for largely keeping on keeping even without his overqualified No. 2 WR by his side during the last few weeks of the regular season; just realize Stafford's touchdown efficiency in particular sure seems due for some good ole fashioned regression:

  • Touchdown rate is a notoriously volatile factor that tends to regress for better and for worse on an annual basis. Consider: Stafford's personal passing touchdown rate has literally gone down, then up, then down, then up … for the last 15 seasons. During that span, all 23 QBs to post a touchdown rate of at least 7% saw their mark fall the following season. The average dropoff was 2.2%.
  • Stafford's touchdown rate near the goal line looks particularly tough to replicate, albeit this is really where his connection with Adams shone. Los Angeles actually didn't throw the ball much more inside the 10-yard line in 2025 (53.6%, 12th) compared to 2024 (51.7%, 17th), but the passing touchdown rate spiked to 46.6% (7th) from just 25.6% (34th).

Good news: Stafford's QB15 ADP means that we don't have to buy him at his MVP ceiling. Priced next to fellow predominant pocket passers like Jared Goff and Jordan Love, Stafford is very live as a quality late-round QB capable of booming during any given week (especially in 6-point passing TD leagues), but guys like Jaxson Dart, Brock Purdy and Bo Nix arguably boast more realistic best-case upside thanks to their respective rushing floors.

Also note: Ty Simpson is very much in the Round 1 conversation … for rookie dynasty drafts. While it could be a year or two (or three?) until Stafford gives up the (Roman) reins, Simpson's future as Sean McVay's chosen one is too good to pass up for day three running backs and day two receivers. Reminder: The Alabama product was a highly-regarded five-star recruit, is fearless throwing over the middle, and possesses underrated mobility when maneuvering in the pocket.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Matthew Stafford
    MatthewStafford
    QBLARLAR
    PPG
    20.3
    Proj
    283.5

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