Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Mailbag: Can TreVeyon Henderson Break Out As An RB1?
Kendall Valenzuela is back with her weekly mailbag, answering fantasy football draft strategy questions from SiriusXM listeners.
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Weekly Mailbag for Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Brandon - Indiana - Not using the name Robinson or Gibbs, who are your picks for RB1 in PPR, AND Standard. Also, Folgers is the Mariners AND Mets of the coffee world!
FIRST OF ALL, no Folgers and Mariners slander will be tolerated here (the Mets stink so they are fair game lol). If we're just strictly looking for running backs who could finish as the overall RB1 in PPR, it's James Cook for me. Last season he laughed in anyone and everyone's face who thought regression might be coming—he finished the year with a career-high 67% attempt share and was the rushing leader. Now you might be thinking, how could there possibly be more added to his game? Well, the reports out of training camp are that the Bills running backs have “been noticeably more involved as pass catchers” in practice. Cook caught 33 passes last year and has broken 40 catches once in four seasons. The only knock to his game has been a lack of receiving role, and if we knew for certain that he would take on a 60–70% route participation rate, then he'd be drafted a lot higher than he is right now.
Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto
John - Massachusetts - I think the most slept-on player this season is TreVeyon Henderson. Could he finish as a top-12 running back?
TreVeyon Henderson is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward player heading into this season. Last year in four games when we did not have Rhamondre Stevenson on the field, Henderson averaged 21 points per game with a 78% snap share! The problem is, he did not run away with the job and the problems with pass protection really seemed to limit Henderson's upside. I mean, we have to remember that Henderson played just 31% of the snaps during the postseason (woof).
There is no questioning how good Henderson CAN be, but we also cannot ignore the fact that Henderson wasn't bad last year either. He ranked third in yards per touch (5.9), 10th in yards per route run (1.45) and first in rushing yards over expected per attempt. To make matters even worse, there's been reports of Henderson still struggling with pass protection in training camp this season. The Athletic’s Chad Graff has reported that Henderson has made “enough mistakes in pass protection that it feels like a risk to use him on third downs.” If this doesn't change then I don't see a world where his role is much different from what we saw last season … a split with Stevenson. All this to say that Henderson isn't a fade for me, but just realize the risk if you're taking him early in drafts.
Chris - NC - 10-man PPR: D'Andre Swift, Bhayshul Tuten, Jayden Reed or Josh Downs?
Out of all these guys, I have D'Andre Swift ranked slightly ahead of Bhayshul Tuten but it's very close. I know people are worried about Kyle Monangai coming in and stealing touches, but Swift was able to average 15.1 fantasy points per game with a 65% snap share before a Week 7 groin injury. Swift is still playing at a high level and I think Monangai has a bit more limited skill set to fully take over.
Tuten is hard to pass up in drafts right now especially with his age and the potential workload he could have in this Jaguars offense. Sure, Chris Rodriguez and Liam Coen have a history together going back to their Kentucky days, but Rodriguez was hurt this offseason and had a procedure done on his left foot. The main thing here is opportunity for Tuten and while Travis Etienne is gone he could really showcase his skill set this season.
Mickey - CA - Do you think McLaurin from Washington can make it through a whole season?
I do think Terry McLaurin can make it through a whole season! Yes, he's another year older, but the situation is different heading into this year. Last season McLaurin was holding out for a new contract and missing valuable time at camp. Any aging veteran who misses time in the offseason and training camp is immediately someone we have to be cautious of since the risk of injury is a little bit higher. Now McLaurin with a healthy offseason behind him and hopefully with a healthy Jayden Daniels we can get back to something like those 13 touchdowns two seasons ago.
The only problem with this now is that Stefon Diggs has joined the team. This fit made sense for everyone, because the Commanders receiver room after McLaurin was a little bleak. Overall McLaurin will still be the WR1, but our fantasy football projections have it pretty close:
McLaurin: 113 targets, 74 receptions, 1,029 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns
Diggs: 107 targets, 69 receptions, 782 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns
Matthew Berry's Fantasy Football Rankings
Tim - Cherry Hill - Hi Adam / Kendall I have draf- slot first dibs. Should I take 1.01, 1.02 or 1.03 to get a better player on the way back?
Honestly if you have the chance to get one of Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs I would do that! Sometimes overthinking just takes up too much time, get one of the very best running backs and see how the board falls to you when it comes back in the second round. One of my best pieces of advice for everyone during draft day is to just not panic if the draft isn't going how you expected—we can always go in with a plan, but we have to abandon it quickly when it doesn't work (and rarely do drafts go your way, lol). Don't panic and let the board fall to you.
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