Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9
Fantasy

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 9

John Laghezza breaks down Week 9's Sunday Night Football tilt between the Bears and the Bucs for fantasy football.

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Forget the win/loss records; Tampa and Chicago are each amidst multi-game win streaks and playing some of the best ball in the league. I’ll admit that thinking 46.5 points felt high at first, given the way these defenses are playing, but perhaps there’s fantasy gold to be mined here yet.

Bears vs. Buccaneers Matchup Breakdown For Fantasy Football Week 9

*Fantasy Football Rankings listed are Fantasy Life's half-PPR consensus ranks at the time of writing.

TB_buccaneers-logo.svgTampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Preview For Week 9

Without exaggeration, Tampa’s on the most stylistically improbable runs in NFL history, scoring three fewer points (59) than passing yards achieved (62) over a two-week span. I saw it with my own eyes but still don’t believe it. Without wild weather, we’ll likely return to some degree of normalcy, though the fact remains we possess very little meaningful data on Baker Mayfield since returning. Easy to imagine he’s healthy, but what that means is a different story. Not only was Mayfield playing poorly in the first place (-0.25 EPA/dropback, 14.5% off-target, 80.8 passer rating, 6.2 yards/attempt), the Bears added game-wrecker Jeffrey Simmons and look like a legitimate defensive wagon.

Ring the bells! Emeka Egbuka finally logged a full practice after dealing with turf toe plus concussion symptoms, tracking to play for the first time since Week 6. The former first-rounder could and should bring a much-needed receiving element back to the Bucs, though going up against the NFL’s defensive leader in success rate (61.4%) plus 3-and-outs (16) over the last month could easily stunt that. Adding Simmons to the mix on D permits Chicago to all but stop blitzing without losing subsequent pressures, by freeing up Montez Sweat from double teams. Remember, Chicago also recently returned star CB Kyler Gordon into the mix — could be a really rough day at the office for all the Bucs’ pass catchers.

If there’s hope anywhere for Tampa’s offense, it’s Bucky Irving, fantasy’s RB3 in total points since running away with the job in Week 5. Since then,  he’s represented the total package, combining rush efficiency (5.4 yards/carry, 4.42 yards after contact/rush, 11.0% explosive rush) with a double-digit team target share, plus a death grip on all the high-value goal-line work. Bucky’s the engine of the offense and set up for big-time volume, though production again will be hard to come by against an extremely tough Chicago front seven.

  • Start: Bucky Irving (RB10), Emeka Egbuka (WR22)
  • Sit: Baker Mayfield (QB22), Cade Otton (TE25)
  • Sleeper: Chris Godwin (WR45)

CHI_bears-logo.svgChicago Bears Fantasy Preview For Week 9

Sorry for breaking my personal record on defensive mentions, but as Chicago improves on D, it invariably affects the offense. In fact, the Bears’ once fast-moving offense added two full seconds to their average play clock at snap. So while total play volume’s still there, it also comes with decidedly more runs. None of this should eliminate Caleb Williams from fantasy consideration, posting two separate top-6 finishes in just five games played on extremely strong underpinning stats (0.21 EPA/dropback, 70.9% completion, 104.6 passer rating, 8.0 yards/attempt). Not to suck the fun out of the room, this just feels like a classic knock-down-drag-out dogfight setting up in the trenches.

One major data point to emerge from Williams’ return is a full-on return to normalcy through target consolidation. Ah, let it sink in. After weeks of frustration and subsequent clumps of hair on the floor, only three WR/TE matter whatsoever in the Bears’ offense: Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, and Rome Odunze. The dynamic trio has more than doubled up any other receiver in targets, catches, and yards with no signs of slowing. Despite each achieving must-start weekly status, my antennae are up for a clunker. Tampa’s starting to emulate the Brian Flores style of heavy box prevalence to disguise post-snap looks — they’ve only allowed over 300 scrimmage once since Week 2!

Looks like D’Andre Swift managers get at least one more week of fantasy bliss since Kyle Monangai failed to resume practice again this week. Of course, everyone lost their mind when Roschon Johnson earned a few meaningful touches at ATL, but it’s a total overreaction even against an insanely physical TB front seven — Swift’s averaging +21 fantasy points/game on a 73% backfield opportunity share in Monangai’s absence.

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