Auction Fantasy Football Quarterback Strategy: Patrick Mahomes Is A Value In 2026

The calendar flipped to July, which means fantasy football draft season isn't coming—it's already here. And it's awesome to see auction fantasy football drafts pick up so much steam year after year, because personally, they're one of my favorites. I do my fair share of industry drafts, and I'm in a long-running high-stakes home league entering its 12th season with 16 teams. Nothing beats getting the boys together in your hometown once a year with a real reason to reunite.

But the best part about auction formats? You have the opportunity to buy whoever you want. You're not at the mercy of your draft slot, you don't have to worry about getting sniped and there's so much more strategy, budgeting and reading the room baked into every pick. For this piece, I'm working off a standard $200 budget in a full-PPR format. Let's talk about the quarterbacks, because that's where the strategy gets really interesting.

Quarterback Strategy For 2026 Auction Fantasy Football

The Tier 1 Quarterbacks

Our auction fantasy football values slot five quarterbacks into the top tier, ranging from a consensus $27 down to $21: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. No surprises there. But playing devil's advocate, you can nitpick every one of these guys.

Joe Burrow is the cheapest of the group and carries a monster ceiling, especially in six-point passing-TD leagues that would bump him up the board. But the injury history is well documented, and while the Bengals' defense has improved, it's still not fantastic, meaning plenty of shootouts. Can you stomach spending north of $20 on that risk profile?
Jalen Hurts has a brand-new offensive coordinator, lost his No. 1 weapon in A.J. Brown, and is now leaning on a rookie in Makai Lemon, a guy I love long-term, but who already dealt with a soft-tissue injury this spring and has a pro adjustment ahead of him.
Jayden Daniels has an injury history of his own early in his career, and outside of Terry McLaurin, the weapon cupboard is a little bare as of July 6.
Lamar Jackson is walking into a brand-new offense, which he said is essentially "blowing his mind." That could cut either way, and there may be an adjustment period.
Josh Allen sits atop the list. Yes, there's a new head coach, but Joe Brady is the same guy who was already calling plays, and Buffalo added DJ Moore to the outside.

The common denominator with most of this group—Burrow being the exception—is rushing upside, which is exactly why they carry such strong floor-ceiling combos in the modern game.

Personally, I'd put Josh Allen on a tier of his own. For the floor-ceiling combo and the certainty of what you're getting, he's head and shoulders above the field. Lamar Jackson offers the next-highest ceiling, especially if we see those legs in motion; he ran less last year, which dinged his value a touch.

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Burrow is the true wildcard: if he stays healthy with those weapons and that shaky defense, his range of outcomes is enormous. All five have QB1 upside, but so do a lot of quarterbacks this year.

Nominate Early, Then Live in Tier 2

If your goal is landing one of the elite guys, that's a completely viable strategy—just know you'll pay up. In that case, my preferred approach is: nominate other quarterbacks early. Toss out a Tier 1 or Tier 2 name you know you don't want, force the other owners to open their wallets, drain their budgets and eat up a position you'll have competition for later. Get that money off the board early.

Tier 2 is absolutely loaded, and it's where I love to live. This tier runs from a consensus $13 to $17 and stretches from Patrick Mahomes all the way down to Drake Maye and Brock Purdy at the low end. In a standard 12-team league, you can be thrilled with any of the eight arms here as long as the rest of your roster provides ceiling and depth.

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Patrick Mahomes is my undervalued guy in this range. We saw him swinging golf clubs online this offseason, and my best guess is that he won’t be too far behind. It feels crazy to call Mahomes the forgotten fiddle, but there's real recency bias after an injury-tinged year and a down offense overall for Kansas City.

As long as Rashee Rice gets healthy and stays out of trouble, Xavier Worthy keeps stretching the field and Kenneth Walker gives this run game a real play-action threat, Mahomes can open the whole thing back up. He's a screaming value in Tier 2. That last part is really important. We haven’t seen Mahomes operate with a borderline-elite running back in years, and Walker can really make KC’s play-action-shot game dangerous for Andy Reid and company.

The rest of the tier is full of intrigue. Kyler Murray has ambiguity in a new system, but his legs give him a much higher floor. Brock Purdy and Baker Mayfield don't offer rushing upside, but they're cheap and their pass catchers are affordable stacking partners—a bigger deal in best ball, but I always chase a little correlation in my annual auction leagues too.

Love Purdy? You probably love the Mike Evans addition (Tier 4, consensus $25) and George Kittle, even coming off an injury. Riding Baker? Emeka Egbuka figures to grow into a bigger role, and Chris Godwin could be a value dart.

For comparison's sake, Ja'Marr Chase sits in Tier 1 at $66—so you can absolutely budget for a Tier 2 QB, a correlated pass-catcher like Evans, and still afford another Tier 1 receiver. It’s also not unreasonable to believe that Egbuka or Evans could finish as a low-end WR1 this season—it’s certainly in the range of outcomes.

My Most Undervalued QB: Dak Prescott

I've beaten the Cowboys drum plenty this summer, but it's warranted. Dallas ranked top-five in EPA per play last season and passed at a high neutral rate, and Prescott has weapons everywhere—assuming the George Pickens contract situation resolves itself, because that offense is a well-oiled machine when it's humming.

I feel like there's way too small a gap between the Baker Mayfields, Bo Nixes, and Kyler Murrays of the world and Prescott, who's sitting at a consensus $12 value right now. That makes him arguably the most undervalued quarterback in most formats, especially with how these auction tiers are breaking. Yes, you'll spend a little more on one of his top two receivers, but you'll pocket the savings at quarterback to do it.

The Verdict

To recap the top of the board: Josh Allen is in a tier of his own for me, Lamar Jackson offers the next-best floor-ceiling combo for your dollar and Joe Burrow is the true wildcard with the widest range of outcomes. Every Tier 1 arm has QB1 upside, but so do a bunch of guys further down.

So for me? I'm pumping the brakes on the elite tier, living in that loaded Tier 2, or hunting a value like Dak Prescott, who lets me spend my budget everywhere else. Happy bidding.