Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Matchup Breakdown For Week 6

I’m starting Caleb where possible for the ceiling alone. To me, the overall QB1 finish in Week 1 feels more believable than the QB29 performance versus Minnesota, who’s allowing a league-low 8.4 fantasy points/game to the position. Anytime I get too cute with stars, it ends poorly — especially in a spot like this, against Atlanta's pass-funnel defense, responsible for the sixth-most passing yards allowed/game (248.4).

A couple quick things on a Bears’ backfield that should be easy to discern with Kyle Monangai missing practice (toe) and tracking to miss Week 6. I say “should be” because a single tweet regarding D’Andre Swift losing work in the fourth quarter at Green Bay went viral.

However, a major hat tip is deserved by FP’s Ryan Heath doing yeoman’s work and adding clarity to the now community-noted post “This is wildly misleading, and I have no idea why it's gaining traction. The Bears used a drive-by-drive rotation between Swift and Roschon. Each played ~100% of snaps on six drives apiece. Swift's last carry was on drive 6, but he played every RB snap on drives 8 and 10, seeing 2 targets. No Bears RB saw a carry on any of the final five drives because they were getting blown out." Couldn’t have said it better myself, so I didn’t. With that, any type of split rotation on a Ben Johnson immediately makes Roschon Johnson worthy of our fantasy attention.

A chunk of the most asked questions this season all revolve around the Bears’ pass catchers. As a huge preseason Colston Loveland backer, let me be the first to wave my hands wildly in the air screaming toward the heavens without a rational answer. Kidding aside, both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden’s consistent involvement across QB changes warrants a weekly start, though all the best Kalif Raymond plays occurred in Caleb games. Yes, his 35.0% target/route, 3.10 yards/route with Williams are elite, though totaling just 6.0 fantasy points across his last two games combined makes me think that ship’s sailed. And as much as I'd like to see Williams’ return translate into a definitive Loveland breakout, the Windy City battery must show it to me first — we’ve been hurt too many times.

• Start: Caleb Williams (QB9), D’Andre Swift (QB9), Rome Odunze (WR36), Luther Burden (WR21)
• Sit: Khalif Raymond (WR47)
• Sleeper: Colston Loveland (TE16)

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Preview For Week 6

Let me try my very best to get through this write-up without bashing the Falcons’ backup QB play. Well, that’s not going to work. Just as I finally purged the sour taste of the Cooper Rush-led Falcons experience from my tongue, Michael Penix gets banged up in a tie game late versus Baltimore — only for Tua Tagovailoa to immediately hand the game away. Without exaggeration, no single player’s been more essential to their team’s success. Atlanta averages 262.0 yards/game, 4.2 yards/play and -0.43 EPA/play without Penix, and 428.3 yards/game, 6.2 yards/play and +0.22 EPA/play with him under center. For reference, that’s the difference between a top five offense and a bottom five offense.

At 24.2 fantasy points/game, Bijan Robinson’s one of the most obvious must-starts in the game today. Lock him in and move on. However, the reason he’s stuck as fantasy’s overall RB3 is simple — Robinson owns just the 14th-highest backfield opportunity share. The rest of that work goes to handcuff Brian Robinson, the NFL’s highest-scoring backup in points/game (10.0). He’s sixth among all RBs with +50 attempts in yards after contact/rush (3.63), so don’t expect a shift toward a Bijan monopoly anytime soon.

It’s easy to see why Drake London’s advanced metrics with Michael Penix (31.3% target/route, 4.85 yards/route) could worry GMs over starting any other Falcon WR/TE alongside him. Nevertheless, I’m remaining bullish on both Kyle Pitts (21.2% target/route, 1.81 yards/route) and, to a lesser extent, Jahan Dotson (18.2% target/route, 2.16 yards/route) for the same reasons. Pitts has become a popular drop of late for averaging just 5.4 points/game, but that’s entirely short-sighted in my opinion. I’m treating him as possessing massive buy-low potential, especially after the Bears secondary just imploded against the Packers.

• Start: Michael Penix (QB21), Bijan Robinson (RB1), Drake London (WR9), Kyle Pitts (TE23)
• Sit: Zachariah Branch (WR87)
• Sleeper: Jahan Dotson (WR67)