Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings Standouts: Xavier Worth And More Players Higher/Lower Than Consensus
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Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings Standouts: Xavier Worth And More Players Higher/Lower Than Consensus

Alex Cupps breaks down the biggest differences in his Week 6 fantasy football rankings versus the Fantasy Life consensus rankings.

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Welcome to the Week 6 fantasy football rankings edition of Cupps’ Cupboard!

Every Friday this season, I’m going through my rankings for the weekend to identify players I have the biggest deltas on compared to Fantasy Life’s expert consensus fantasy football rankings, along with examining advanced metrics and utilization data.

As someone with a data-heavy background and overall approach to fantasy football, my rankings are created using a blend of several inputs:

  • Fantasy Life's weekly fantasy football projections, adjusted using fantasy football DvP rankings
  • Prediction market data (essentially taking the current prices on various yardages, touchdowns, receptions, etc., and creating implied fantasy point projections)
  • Vegas prop lines (rush/rec yards + receptions for pass catchers, pass/rush yards for quarterbacks). I will commonly refer to this as a player’s ‘Vegas Base’ projection: essentially, the floor a player offers without any touchdown odds

Using these sources as a baseline, I create my own hybrid projection system for each position and adjust from there.

Let's get into it.

Quarterbacks I Rank Higher In My Week 6 Fantasy Rankings

NE_patriots-logo.svgDrake Maye

  • Fantasy Life: QB5
  • My Rank: QB2 (+3)

On paper, this isn’t the spot you’d circle for Drake Maye. The Jets come into Week 6 ranked 5th in Defense vs. Position against quarterbacks, allowing 3.33 fewer fantasy points per game than the average matchup. And yet, the only quarterback I have ranked ahead of him this week is Josh Allen.

The DvP adjustment does knock him down a few spots, but everything else has him right at the top of the position:

  • Fantasy Life projection: 20.4 (QB2)
  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 18.1 (QB6)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 21.5 (QB3)

When the market is pricing a guy as a top-3 option against one of the tougher pass defenses in the league, I’m listening. I’d be firing up Maye with confidence in this one.

QB I'm Lower On In My Fantasy Football Rankings For Week 6

JAC_jaguars-logo.svgTrevor Lawrence

  • Fantasy Life: QB10
  • My Rank: QB12 (-2)

This one comes with a bit of an asterisk. I’m only two spots lower than the Fantasy Life experts on Trevor Lawrence, and there honestly aren’t many quarterbacks I’m meaningfully below consensus on this week. T-Law just happens to be one of the biggest gaps.

Houston is about as middle-of-the-road of a matchup as you’ll find (16th in DvP, -1.12 points on average), so I’m not lower on him because of the defense. It’s more that none of the projections have him as a top-10 option:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 14.9 (QB14)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 17.6 (QB14)
  • Vegas floor: 10.4 (QB15)

I still have Lawrence inside my QB1 range, so I’m not telling you to bench him. I would just temper expectations in this Week 6 matchup against Houston.

Running Back I Am Higher Than Consensus On In My Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings

CAR_panthers-logo.svgChuba Hubbard

  • Fantasy Life: RB13
  • My Rank: RB11 (+2)

The Eagles are in absolute shambles right now. Jalen Hurts has officially been ruled out, Tanner McKee is set to make the start at quarterback, and Philly is likely going to be without both Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith.

Philadelphia still ranks 8th in DvP against running backs (-1.99 points on average), so this isn’t a cakewalk on paper … but I like Carolina to take care of business pretty easily here, and a Panthers lead in the second half should mean a heavy dose of Chuba Hubbard. The projections back up this sentiment:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 13.6 (RB12)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 15.6 (RB10)
  • Vegas floor: 10.2 (RB7)

That Vegas base projection is the one that sticks out to me the most - an RB7 floor before factoring in touchdown odds tells me the market expects real volume. Hubbard is a rock-solid RB1 for me this week.

RB I'm Lower On In My Fantasy Rankings For Week 6

LAC_chargers-logo.svgOmarion Hampton

  • Fantasy Life: RB30
  • My Rank: RB35 (-5)

If you’ve read this column before, you already know where this is going. Last week I pointed to Hampton’s 55.1 average Utilization Score (28th among RBs through four weeks) as the main reason I couldn’t get on board, and after following that up with a Utilization Score of 36.4 in week 5, things are just going from bad to worse.

This week the Chargers draw Kansas City, who rank 15th in DvP against the position (-0.70 points on average). Not a crazy bad matchup by any means, but the projections somehow look even worse than they did a week ago:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 6.2 (RB32)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 5.0 (RB34)
  • Vegas floor: 4.3 (RB33)

For context, his prediction market number was 7.0, and his Vegas floor was 5.6 heading into week 5. Consensus has started to catch on, sliding him from RB25 to RB30, but I’m still quite a bit lower for another week with Hampton.

Wide Receivers I'm High On In My Week 6 Rankings

CAR_panthers-logo.svgTetairoa McMillan

  • Fantasy Life: WR16
  • My Rank: WR12 (+4)

Another Panther I’m higher on than consensus this week. The last time we saw TMac, he dropped 45 fantasy points on the Lions in Week 4. After the bye in Week 5, Carolina gets another soft matchup with a Philly defense that ranks 22nd in DvP against receivers (+2.0 points on average), and the data is pretty much unanimous on where he belongs:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 12.4 (WR13)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 12.2 (WR13)
  • Vegas floor: 9.3 (WR11)

Every input lands him somewhere between WR11 and WR13, which makes WR16 from the experts feel a bit low. I’m treating McMillan as a back-end WR1 in Week 6.

KC_chiefs-logo.svgXavier Worthy

  • Fantasy Life: WR30
  • My Rank: WR23 (+7)

With Rashee Rice looking like he’ll likely miss this one, Xavier Worthy sets up as Patrick Mahomes’ top wide receiver against the Chargers. LA ranks 18th in DvP to the position (+0.41 points on average), so there’s nothing about the matchup specifically that should scare you off. The market really likes Worthy this week:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 8.1 (WR29)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 10.1 (WR18)
  • Vegas floor: 7.0 (WR22)

Obviously, Worthy has been a total disappointment so far this season, but he sets up nicely in this one. I’d roll him out there as a back-end WR2 in Week 6.

WRs I'm Lower On In My Fantasy Football Rankings For Week 6

CHI_bears-logo.svgRome Odunze

  • Fantasy Life: WR26
  • My Rank: WR34 (-8)

Caleb Williams should be back under center for Chicago in Week 6, which should be good news for everyone in that receiver room. The matchup against Atlanta is about as middle-of-the-road as it gets (17th in DvP, -0.05 points on average). Even so, the data just doesn’t love Odunze this week:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 7.3 (WR36)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 9.0 (WR24)
  • Vegas floor: 5.5 (WR30)

If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, the prediction market is it. WR24 is right in line with consensus. The problem is that Fantasy Life’s own projections have him at WR36, and his floor without touchdowns is pretty thin. He’s more of a low-end flex option than a locked-in WR2 for me.

TB_buccaneers-logo.svgEmeka Egbuka

  • Fantasy Life: WR29
  • My Rank: WR39 (-10)

This is my biggest gap at wide receiver this week. Tampa is rolling with Jalon Daniels at quarterback again, and as much as I like Daniels from a fantasy perspective, that’s mainly because of his rushing upside … his passing yardage line of 175.5 is the lowest of any quarterback on the market right now.

The matchup against Pittsburgh doesn’t help either, ranking 9th in DvP against receivers (-2.44 points on average):

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 7.0 (WR40)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 7.7 (WR30)
  • Vegas floor: 5.4 (WR32)

The market is a little kinder to Egbuka than Fantasy Life, but the ceiling feels extremely capped. He’s somewhere between a back-end WR3 and a high-end WR4 for me this week.

Tight End I Am Upgrading In My Week 6 Fantasy Rankings

CHI_bears-logo.svgColston Loveland

  • Fantasy Life: TE15
  • My Rank: TE11 (+4)

As I mentioned before, Caleb Williams should be returning in Week 6, and Colston Loveland is somehow being ranked outside the TE1 range. I think this is the week he gets back on track.

Atlanta ranks 13th in DvP against tight ends (-1.66 points on average), so it’s not the best matchup on paper, but the market is clearly betting on a Loveland bounceback here:

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 6.0 (TE19)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 8.2 (TE10)
  • Vegas floor: 5.4 (TE11)

It’s still a far cry from where we were drafting Loveland over the offseason, but there’s no denying the talent here. He’s one of my favorite get-right candidates over the next couple of weeks.

TE I Am Lower On In My Fantasy Rankings For Week 6

CAR_panthers-logo.svgDarren Waller

  • Fantasy Life: TE17
  • My Rank: TE22 (-5)

There isn’t a ton to say about Darren Waller this week, other than the split between Fantasy Life and the market is stark.

  • Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 6.7 (TE13)
  • Prediction market implied projection: 6.2 (TE19)
  • Vegas floor: 4.0 (TE20)

Philadelphia ranks 16th in DvP against tight ends (-0.14 points on average), so the matchup is a wash. While Fantasy Life’s DvP-adjusted projections actually have him as a fringe TE1, the market has him closer to TE20 - with a floor that low, Waller is a touchdown-dependent TE2 for me in Week 6. I’d be looking elsewhere if I had the option.

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