Adjusting Fantasy Football Priors For Week 3

I was recently mocked by Peter Overzet for bidding a little too much FAAB on Tyler Shough this week.

Luckily, it's a Guillotine League, and I can just claim that I’m "testing out a new strategy." But it got me thinking …

When do our early convictions become more than fodder for mockery?

How much proof do we need in the fantasy pudding for our convictions to finally turn into "smart fantasy choices"?

Tyler Shough | QB | NO

I get it. He's the poor man's Josh Allen, or whatever. But is it really so crazy to throw Shough into our starting lineups above guys like Justin Herbert or Drake Maye?

The pudding: Shough ranks as the QB5 in PPG since Week 10 of 2025. He's turned Chris Olave into the Top 10 WR many of us knew he could be. It's why Shough is at the top of Matthew Berry's 10 Facts You Need to Know Before Week 3. It's why Shough is at the top of Dwain McFarland's Week 3 Start List. And it's why my family can finally throw out our paper bags.

Darren Waller | TE | CAR

I get it. He's a 34-year-old rapper who plays ball. But is it really so crazy to rely on him in this TE economy?

The pudding: Waller is batting a thousand for weeks where he's outscored Colston Loveland in 2026 (sorry). While he likely won't finish as the TE5 most weeks, or score two TDs on three catches, it's okay to start paying attention. Bryce Young has been absolutely cooking on offense. If you have strong Waller convictions, I won't mock you for them. Hell, even "The Receiver Score King" Zain Dhanani has Waller as a "Buy" right now.

Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE

I get it. He only put up 7-8 points for you each week this season.

No pudding. Judkins' bleak single-digit FPPG are as unexciting as they come. If he had put up 98 yards in a single game, it would be fun. But coming as the result of 24 carries across two weeks? It's bland. At least Judkins is holding tightly to the RB1 role in Cleveland … Hey, for what it's worth, he made Freedman's Week 3 RB Upgrades list.

MORE UPGRADES AND DOWNGRADES FOR WEEK 3

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