Best Bets For NFL Week 3: Trust The Bucs To Right The Ship?

There are few feelings as good as crushing the sportsbook. That’s exactly what we did last week, going a perfect 5-0 in our best bets column. That brings our record to 8-2 for the year, giving us a bit of cushion moving forward. Not every week will be a winner, so putting as many wins on the board early will help offset some negative regression.

Now, we transition into Week 3. It’s another week where there is value in fading the “overreaction” teams from the first two weeks. Specifically, teams that have gotten off to a 0-2 start have provided plenty of value. Teams that are winless through the first two weeks have posted a 94-73-5 ATS mark in Week 3 since 2005 (+8.9% ROI). If those teams have also failed to cover in each of the first two weeks, the figure improves to 66-43-1 (+17.5% ROI). It may not feel good to back some of these teams, but history suggests that it’s the correct decision.

With that in mind, let’s dive into five of my favorite targets for NFL Week 3.

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NFL Week 3 Best Bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Best Odds: +106; FanDuel
• Play To: -110

The Buccaneers are one of four teams to fit the 0-2 both straight-up and ATS trend mentioned above. They’ve been a pretty strong disappointment to start the year, particularly on offense. They’re currently 28th in EPA per play, thanks primarily to five turnovers.

That said, those first two performances were definitely a bit unlucky. Their first game was against the Bengals, and they lost all four of their fumbles. They still managed to lose by just one possession, so with a bit of better luck in that department, they could have potentially pulled it out late.

Last week’s showing vs. the Browns was less impressive, but the weather affected that game. There was a lightning delay of more than two hours, right before the Buccaneers were going to attempt a game-winning drive. They outgained the Browns in that contest, and it was another game that could’ve gone either way.

On the other side, the Vikings are a fortunate 2-0 right now. They were outgained by nearly 200 yards in Week 1, and they also lost the yardage battle in Week 2. The Vikings currently rank 31st in the league in yardage differential but fifth in scoring differential. That type of discrepancy screams “fluke,” making them the perfect fade candidate in Week 3.

Add it all up, and this is the perfect spot to back Tampa Bay. You’ve got an undervalued team vs. an overvalued one, and I think the wrong team is ultimately favored.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

• Best Odds: -109; Caesars
• Play To: -2.5 (-115)

The Texans are another team that has failed to win or cover in the first two weeks. Like with Tampa Bay, they’re another team that feels more “unlucky” than “bad” over that time frame. They’ve actually outgained their opponents by a pretty significant amount, ranking ninth in the league in yardage differential. They moved the ball pretty comfortably vs. the Bengals last week; they just couldn’t put the ball in the end zone.

Getting back Nico Collins would certainly help. He’s yet to suit up at practice this week, but he still has a few opportunities to return to the lineup. Even if he’s forced to miss his second straight game, the Texans should still be able to move the ball. They had 374 yards against the Bengals in Week 2, and the Colts haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed through the first two weeks. They’ve allowed more than 500 yards in back-to-back games, and they’re also dead last in points allowed.

The biggest reason for optimism with the Texans is their defense. Houston was expected to have one of the top defenses in football this season, just like they did last year. However, they’ve started the year with brutal matchups vs. the Bills and Bengals. Those are two of the best offenses in football, and they’ve made Houston look mortal defensively.

That shouldn’t be nearly as big of an issue vs. the Colts. Indianapolis is 17th in EPA per play through the first two weeks, and Daniel Jones hasn’t looked like the same player he was before tearing his Achilles. It’s a great spot for the Texans to remind everyone just how dominant their defense can be, and even without Collins, the offense should do just enough to cover.

New York Jets (+6.5) at Detroit Lions

• Best Odds: -102; FanDuel
• Play To: -110

The Jets are 2-0 ATS, and they could very well be 2-0 straight up. They had a late collapse last week vs. the Packers, and they made some history in the process:

Still, there is definitely a lot of good going on in New York at the moment. They’ve been excellent defensively, limiting each of their first two opponents to less than 200 yards of total offense. They’re first in the league in that department, sixth in scoring defense, and sixth in defensive EPA per play.

Offensively, the Jets have been roughly league average. That’s a win considering what they were expected to be at the start of the year. Geno Smith has looked competent as the team’s starting quarterback after a disastrous season with the Raiders.

The Jets’ offense should be licking its chops for a matchup vs. the Lions. Detroit’s secondary has been ravaged by injuries to start the year, and they have unsurprisingly struggled to get stops. The Bills lit them up for 41 points last week, while the Saints managed 30 in Week 1. Overall, the Lions are 31st in both points and yards allowed.

If the Jets’ defense can limit the Lions at all, I like their chances of keeping this one close. Even if they can’t, the backdoor is always open against this Lions’ defense. One way or another, I think the Jets keep it inside the number.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys

• Best Odds: -102; FanDuel
• Play To: -110

There was a lot of talk about the revamped Cowboys defense heading into this season. So far, it looks a lot like last year’s unit. They may have a few better players than last year, but it hasn’t led to much improvement. They rank 30th in defense EPA through the first two weeks, better only than the Giants and Colts.

That didn’t matter for the Cowboys last week. Jayden Daniels got injured right before halftime, and the Cowboys ended up running away in the second half. Marcus Mariota couldn’t move the ball nearly as well as the Commanders’ starting QB, and the Cowboys’ offense was basically unstoppable.

They’ll face a much stiffer test this week vs. the Ravens. If the Cowboys struggled vs. Daniels and the Commanders, they’re going to be in serious trouble vs. Lamar Jackson. The Ravens blew a late lead against the Saints last week, but they’re still fourth in offensive EPA. Zay Flowers is also expected to return after missing last week’s contest, giving them another dimension on offense.

This figures to be one of the highest-scoring matchups of the week, and the Ravens’ defense is far better than the Cowboys'. They should get at least a couple of stops, but I can’t say the same for Dallas.

Tennessee Titans (+3.0) at New York Giants

• Best Odds: -120; DraftKings
• Play To: +3.0 (-125) or +2.5 (-105)

The Titans pulled off a cover for us last week, and they had a good chance to win the game straight up. They were leading late against the Eagles, but Jalen Hurts engineered a late touchdown drive to pull off the comeback. It was a much more impressive showing for the Titans than in Week 1, when the Jets blew their doors off.

The Titans are definitely still one of the worst teams in football, but are they really that much worse than this current version of the Giants? They’re going to be without Jaxson Dart for the rest of the season. Top defensive player Brian Burns is also expected to miss some time, while Andrew Thomas and Malik Nabers both suffered injuries vs. the Rams. Thomas and Nabers may suit up vs. the Titans, but they’re always a play away from exiting again.

Jameis Winston may feel like a capable backup QB, and he is definitely fun to watch. But he has been pretty terrible at covering the spread. He’s just 38-47-4 ATS for his career, including a disastrous 8-20-1 ATS as a favorite. I’ve already locked in the Titans at +3.0, but I’d be willing to take them at a reasonably priced +2.5 as well.