NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks for Week 1: Will the Bears and Panthers Rack Up Points?

We’ve had two NFL games to start the season, and we’ve seen two unders hit pretty comfortably. The Seahawks and Patriots combined for just 23 points on opening night, while the Rams and Seahawks managed just 34 combined points in Australia.

While both of those games had unusual circumstances—an injury to Sam Darnold on the fifth play of the game and a game being played 15 hours away—the defenses tend to have the edge over offenses to start the year. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, the under is 139-102-1 across the first three weeks of the season. In Week 1 specifically, the under is 53-29. With that in mind, it makes sense to gravitate toward the under with all things being equal.

That said, we are showing the value on a few overs in our NFL Game Model. There has also been some sharp action on the over for multiple contests, so perhaps this will be the year that bucks the trend.

Let’s dive into two of my favorite overs and unders for NFL Week 1.

Week 1 NFL Total (Over/Under) Picks

Bears at Panthers Over 47.0

Best Price: -110; Fanatics
Play To: 47.5

Ben Johnson is entering his second year as the Bears head coach, and he is undoubtedly an offensive guru. His team was just 8-8-1 to the over in his first season, but they were a top-nine unit in both yards and points per game.

There’s no reason they shouldn’t be more potent in Year 2. It’s another year of familiarity for Caleb Williams, while guys like Colston Loveland and Luther Burden should be more involved than they were to start last year. Johnson has stated that he wants to top the 2013 Broncos’ record of 37.9 points per game, and while that’s a lofty goal, it’s exactly what you want to hear as an over bettor.

The Bears might need to score that much to win games, because their defense is not very good. They allowed the fourth-most yards per game last season, and they were 19th in EPA per play defensively. The only reason they weren’t worse was that they led the league with a 4.32% interception rate. If that regresses a bit, the Bears could be a bit of a sieve in 2026-27.

The Panthers’ offense is a tougher sell, but they can put points on the scoreboard from time to time. They scored 30+ points five times last season, including in their playoff loss to the Rams.

The sharps have attacked the over in this contest, pushing it up from 45.5 to 47.5 across most of the industry. It’s still available at 47.0 on Fanatics, and you can even find 46.5 on some of the prediction markets. I’m happy to grab the over at that figure.

Falcons at Steelers Over 41.5

Best Price: -105; FanDuel
Play To: 42.5

This is another game that has seen some sharp action on the over. It’s also popping as a strong option in our NFL Game Model, with the projected total listed at 43.8. It’s the second-largest discrepancy of the week, trailing only the over in Jets-Titans.

The offensive situation in Atlanta is pretty scary at the moment. Tua Tagovailoa was named the Week 1 starter after “winning” a QB competition vs. himself, but he reportedly picked up an injury in practice. If he’s unable to go, Cooper Rush would get the nod instead.

Ultimately, whoever is at QB shouldn’t matter for the Falcons. If anything, it’s possible that Rush is an upgrade over Tagovailoa at this point. Whoever is under center simply needs to get the ball to Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts as quickly as possible and let those guys do the damage instead.

The Steelers should be the team to carry the over here. Their offense was not great last season, but they could be a bit undervalued to start the year. Replacing Mike Tomlin with Mike McCarthy gives them an offensive upgrade at head coach, while Michael Pittman feels like a perfect fit with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers gets rid of the ball quicker than just about any QB in football, and he didn’t really have an intermediate “chain mover” last season.

If the Steelers can score 24+ in this contest, I think the Falcons will be able to do just enough to push this game over.

Ravens at Colts Under 48.0

Best Price: -110; Fanatics
Play To: 47.5

On the opposite end of the spectrum, this game is showing up as a strong under in our NFL Game Model. It’s a three-star play, with the projected total checking in at 46.3.

On paper, these “should” be two good offenses. The Ravens have historically been a wagon with a healthy Lamar Jackson, while the Colts were fantastic with Daniel Jones to start last season. They were first in offensive EPA over the first half of the season, with a dominant run game led by Jonathan Taylor.

That said, there are reasons to be skeptical of both units. In particular, the Colts’ production last year felt fluky. Jones had already started to show signs of regression before suffering a torn Achilles, and now he’ll look to rebound from that devastating injury in less than 12 months. That’s a tough sell, especially for a QB who relies on his athleticism. Add in the loss of Pittman and a potentially banged-up Alec Pierce to start the year, and this team could struggle to move the chains.

The Ravens should be able to bounce back after a disappointing 2025-26 campaign, but that’s also not a guarantee. Lamar Jackson is now 30 years old, while Derrick Henry is 33. It’s possible that neither player is the same force that they were in their prime, and there’s not a ton of supporting talent around them.

Cowboys at Giants Under 48.5

Best Price: -115; DraftKings
Play To: 48.5

This might be my favorite total of the week. I think this figure is at least a couple of points too high.

For starters, divisional matchups tend to be lower-scoring than non-divisional matchups. The under has a 52.1% hit rate in those contests since 2005, compared to just 49.5% in non-divisional matchups.

Additionally, both of these teams could be sneaky-good on defense. The Cowboys showed significant improvement on that side of the ball after acquiring Quinnen Williams before the trade deadline, and they continued to address the defense this offseason. They drafted a potential game-changing safety in Caleb Downs, and they also added Rashan Gary and Von Miller as pass-rushers.

Meanwhile, the Giants have some potential game-wreckers of their own. Brian Burns had 16.5 sacks last season, while Abdul Carter is an elite prospect. Add in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Arvell Reece, and the Giants have pass-rushers for days.

I like the Giants’ chances of covering in this contest, and the easiest way to do that is to keep the Cowboys from turning this into a track meet. That’s going to be easier said than done, but I think the Giants can rack up enough pressures to keep them in check.