NFL Parlay Picks for Week 8: Can the Lions Take Down the Undefeated Vikings?

It was another swing and a miss in Week 7. We continue to find success with our “underpriced favorites,” but the rest of these picks remain an adventure. Such is life betting underdog parlays. You’re going to do a lot of losing, with the hope that the one big win will more than cover all the losses.

We’re back to the drawing board for NFL Week 8, with four more picks at different price points. These are some of my favorite parlay pieces for the week. You can combine them all together, or sprinkle them in combination with some of your own bets.

NFL Parlay Picks for Week 8

The Underpriced Favorite

Lions ML (-170) vs. Vikings

No team looks like a bigger fade right now than the Vikings. I’m not exactly calling them frauds, but just like the Patriots last year, we simply have no idea how good this team actually is. They have faced almost no one, and they’re not exactly crushing the teams that have been placed in front of them:

Week 1: 39-22 vs. Packers, despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards
Week 2: 9-3 at Bears, Caleb Williams exits with injury
Week 3: 23-16 at Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield exits with injury
Week 4: 15-10 vs. Dolphins
Week 5: 23-13 at Saints
Week 7: 16-10 vs. Colts

To recap, four of their six wins have been by single digits, despite their four opponents boasting a combined 17-25 record. If you exclude the Packers and Bears—who were not playing their best football at the start of the year—their other four opponents are just 7-20.

It’s safe to say this will be a huge step up in weight class. The Lions have one of the best offenses in football, while their defense looked massively improved last week following their Week 6 bye. Getting back Brian Branch could be a game changer in their secondary.

The Vikings are merely 29th in yards per game and EPA per play offensively. They’re not going to be able to win this game exclusively with their defense like they have vs. previous opponents, and I don’t think their offense is going to pick up the slack.

The Underdog

Ravens ML (+145) at Bills

I backed the Ravens +3.5 in my Week 8 Best Bets column, but I think they can do more than just cover the spread. As long as Lamar Jackson is back in the lineup, I like their chances of pulling off the upset.

Both of these teams feature elite offenses, so there should be plenty of scoring. However, the Ravens have the clearly superior defense. Buffalo ranks dead last in EPA per play defensively, so I think the Ravens are much more likely to come up with a big stop.

Additionally, you don’t get too many opportunities to back a QB like Jackson as an underdog. Even on the moneyline, Jackson is an elite 9-5 straight up when taking the field as a dog during the regular season. That’s good for a return on investment of better than 62%.

The Longshot

Cardinals ML (+270) at Cowboys

There are a handful of big underdogs this week. The Cardinals, Colts, Titans, Chargers, Dolphins, and Eagles are all listed as underdogs of at least 6.5 points, with the Colts and Titans both getting double-digits.

Of the group, the Cardinals feel most likely for an upset in my eyes. They’re taking on the Cowboys, who are an extremely Jekyll-and-Hyde team. They’re capable of looking like world beaters one week only to look mediocre the next.

The Cardinals also have some pop offensively, so they should be able to score some points vs. Dallas. The Cowboys are 30th in EPA per play defensively, and they’ve struggled against both the run and the pass. Jeremiyah Love could also return to the lineup after missing the past two weeks, which would give the Cardinals even more juice on offense.

Add in that it’s a potential let-down spot for Dallas after a big win over their division rivals last week, and there’s a world where the Cardinals win this game outright. I think +270 is too generous.

The Touchdown Prop

Chris Rodriguez Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+340)

This is one of my favorite bets of the week regardless of type. Chris Rodriguez simply should not be available to score at better than 3-to-1 against the Colts.

Indianapolis is clearly waving the white flag at the moment. They traded away Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, and more guys could be out the door soon. Josh Downs has already requested a trade, while rumors are circulating about Jonathan Taylor.

The Jags should be able to cruise to a comfortable victory in this one, and Rodriguez has been the team’s primary goal-line back this season. He’s handled 50% of the short-yardage snaps, and he’s had 57% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. While Bhayshul Tuten is the team’s clear No. 1 option in the backfield, Rodriguez is arguably still their top touchdown threat. Regardless, there should be enough work to go around for both this week.

Final Parlay: Roughly +6350

Add all four picks together, and you get a parlay of roughly +6350. Even if you wanted to remove the Cowboys—the pick I feel least confident in—you’d still end up at roughly +1600. Regardless, let’s try to get on the board.

Best of luck to all of you this week!