NFL Draft Prop Bets: Caleb Downs Leads Best Bets For Top-5 and Top-10 Markets

As we get closer to the start of the NFL Draft, sportsbooks have started to release a wide range of NFL Draft props, including Top-5 and Top-10 markets where you can bet if a player will be selected early on in the draft. Other than the first overall pick, this year’s draft can shake out in multiple different ways, creating some value on players whose EDP hovers around the top of the board.

By using my most recent NFL mock draft, as well as pooling the rest of our brilliant staff, I have created a range for each prospect which helps me determine how often they go within the top-5/10. Grinding the Mocks is also a fantastic tool to use, mirroring the same philosophy to help solidify my beliefs on a player's range. For the rest of our draft coverage, check out our NFL Draft Guide for great insight and information.

Top-5 and Top-10 NFL Draft Market Prop Bets

Best Bets To Be A Top-5 Pick In The NFL Draft

EDGE - David Bailey (-300, BetMGM)

Arguably the best EDGE in this year’s class, David Bailey has rivaled Arvell Reese for the second overall pick and is gaining steam as we near the draft. Once listed as high as +250, Bailey has been bet down to +130, nearly leaping over the Ohio State prospect as the favorite to go to the New York Jets at 1.02.

Even though the Arizona Cardinals do not have an immediate need for an EDGE, any depth at the position will help bolster their pass rush. 1.03 is also too early for any of this year’s offensive tackles, with Francis Mauigoa ranked 13th on our NFL Draft Big Board. If the Cardinals do take Mauigoa, then the Tennessee Titans may elect to take Bailey at 1.04, a team that does have a need for the position.

WR - Carnell Tate (+280, DraftKings)

The clear-cut number one wide receiver in this year’s class, per our Rookie Super Model, Carnell Tate is hyper-efficient, making him a reliable pass catcher for any quarterback to throw to. This includes Jaxson Dart, who is currently surrounded by an underwhelming group of pass catchers, especially if Malik Nabers struggles to round back into form after suffering a devastating injury.

While I try to avoid betting on a player with only one potential landing spot, it’s hard to ignore how desperate the Giants are regarding patching their wide receiver room. I also refuse to believe the Giants would even consider Jeremiyah Love if he is still available, needing to fix their needs elsewhere to accelerate their rebuild. If you want to take a more cautious approach, place half a unit on Tate and a full unit on Sonny Styles, who is commonly projected to go 1.05.

Best Bets To Be A Top-10 Pick In The NFL Draft

OT - Francis Mauigoa (-275, Caesars)

Speaking of Mauigoa, while I do expect the Miami offensive tackle to slide out of the top five, it’s tough to imagine him falling any further with the next batch of teams in need of his services. The Cleveland Browns at 1.06 are projected to take an offensive tackle at some point in the draft, fitting Mauigoa’s range (EDP 7.4).

If the Browns do look elsewhere, then Mauigoa still has plenty of other suitors in the top 10, including the Kansas City Chiefs at 1.09. Short arms aside, he is still the number one player at his position, giving the Chiefs a much-needed boost in production in the trenches.

S - Caleb Downs (-105, Caesars)

In my opinion, Caleb Downs is one of the most talented players in this year’s class. A decorated Safety who racked up multiple awards and All-American honors throughout his collegiate career, Downs is a ball hawk in the backfield who also excels at stopping the run.

With an EDP of 8.7, Downs would fit the needs of multiple teams in the back half of the top 10, including the Washington Commanders, whom I recently had him mocked to, as well as the Cincinnati Bengals, as his last stop point. While I do acknowledge that safeties slip down the draft boards, Downs can also be slotted at CB, making him a valuable chess piece that any defensive coordinator would love to have at their disposal.

TE - Kenyon Sadiq (+650, BetMGM)

A bold prediction, it wouldn’t surprise me if someone in the top 10 reaches for Kenyon Sadiq, giving them a dynamic tight end who can be lined up on the outside to help give their offense more versatility. Sadiq’s athleticism was on full display at the combine, setting a new record for his position in the 40-yard dash.

The Chiefs at 1.09 have been a common landing spot for Sadiq, giving them their tight end of the future when Travis Kelce retires. While his EDP of 17.9 suggests he is a mid-first-rounder at best, the upside is there, making him worth a small wager at his current odds.