NFL MVP Odds and Picks: Josh Allen Offers Value As The 2026 Favorite

The most prestigious individual award in the league, the NFL MVP award, crowns the player who has arguably done the most for their team, elevating them to the status of a championship contender. With plenty of big names hovering near the top of the odds board for the MVP award, let's take a look at a few who are in a favorable position to hoist the title this season.

2026 NFL MVP Odds and Picks

When betting on the MVP award winner, it’s pretty straightforward: target the top quarterbacks on playoff-contending teams who can stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Sounds pretty simple, right?

Digging deeper into the weeds, past winners also grade out very well in EPA per play while leading an offense that sits near the top of the board in DVOA. The previous MVP also hardly repeats (sorry, Matthew Stafford), yet former award winners are consistently in the mix. With the road map laid out, let’s build a portfolio.

Josh Allen (+600, Caesars)

The betting favorite to win the award this season, Josh Allen, has all the tools at his disposal to secure his second title in a span of three years. Not only is his offensive line projected to finish in the top-10 again in true pass set grade, but the addition of DJ Moore will finally give him a WR1, which will help create wider passing lanes on the back end.

In the red zone, Allen is a touchdown machine, whether it is through the air or on the ground, setting a scoring output too fast for a majority of the other top contenders to keep up with. Place a wager on Allen to win the award now at his current odds before they steadily trickle down as the season progresses.

Lamar Jackson (+850, FanDuel)

When healthy, Lamar Jackson is capable of burning any opposing defense with his arm or legs, making him one of the most versatile QB’s in the league. Our NFL season-long projections have him in line with Allen, nearly matching the Bills QB in passing yards while exceeding him in passing touchdowns and in rushing yards.

The Baltimore Ravens as a whole are also expected to compete for the number one overall seed in the AFC per our win projections, shining the spotlight brighter on Jackson. If he can stay healthy, expect Lamar to round back into form while climbing back up the board in EPA per play and finish as one of the top contenders for the award.

Justin Herbert (+1200, Fanatics)

Like Jackson, Justin Herbert has also been bogged down by injuries, keeping him out of contention for the award while holding the Los Angeles Chargers back from being able to compete for the Super Bowl. An unfortunate recurring trend, as Herbert is one of the more efficient arms in the league who can flip the field in a flash.

With health back on his side, as well as the addition of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to help turn their offense around, Herbert is in a great position to bounce back and compete for the award. Especially if his defense can also remain healthy, helping the Chargers secure enough wins for Herbert to keep his hat in the ring.

Jared Goff (+4000, BetMGM)

After a down year that was plagued by injuries, the Detroit Lions are expected to rival the top of the NFC for the number one overall seed, instantly elevating Jared Goff up the odds board for the MVP award. Goff has been efficient since joining the Lions, hovering in the top half of the board in EPA and in CPOE.

Detroit’s revamped offensive line will also help Goff ward off any pressure he may face in the backfield, improving the quality of his throws to help keep their drives alive down the field. Factor in a very favorable schedule, and Goff is in a great position to secure the MVP award.

Players to Monitor For NFL MVP Betting In 2026

Joe Burrow (+1000, theScore Bet)

A star QB captaining the most explosive offense in the league, Joe Burrow will quickly be added to the portfolio if his defense can give Cincinnati the production they need to be a well-rounded contender.

Drake Maye (+1200, Caesars)

If Maye can replicate last year’s success (1st in EPA, CPOE and in QBR) while weaving through a tougher schedule, expect to hear his name called for the award.

Sam Darnold (+3000, Caesars)

A Super Bowl champion, Sam Darnold has proven he has all the tools to contend for the award, finishing last year ranked ninth in EPA, fourth in CPOE and fifth in air yards per reception.