Anytime TD Picks & First TD Scorer Bets for Week 1

We made it! Week 1 is here, and we have a full slate with plenty of interesting touchdown markets to attack.

The goal is not to blindly bet every player with a cool number. We want roles, red-zone usage, high-scoring environments, and players who could see a few more opportunities than the market expects. Here are some of my favorite anytime touchdown picks and first-touchdown-scorer sprinkles for the opening weekend.

Week 1 Touchdown Bets: Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson is one of my favorite touchdown targets of the week.

Detroit-New Orleans has one of the better projected game environments on the slate, and the Saints are missing some major pieces. Rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson remains out. Taysom Hill is no longer on the roster. Alvin Kamara is unavailable. Outside of Chris Olave and Johnson, there are not many proven pass-catching options.

That makes Johnson one of the highest-priority targets in the offense by default.

He also brings the role we are looking for. Johnson led the Saints in snaps inside both the five- and 10-yard lines last season. Kellen Moore’s offense should continue to create scoring opportunities again, and Johnson is the big-bodied option New Orleans can lean on near the goal line.

At +240 anytime and +1200 for first touchdown, I am interested in both.

Bucky Irving: Anytime TD (+140), First TD (+1000)

The Tampa Bay-Cincinnati game projects as another strong scoring environment.

Joe Burrow is healthy, Cincinnati’s defense has plenty of concerns, and the Buccaneers may need to keep pace all afternoon. That is good news for Bucky Irving, who should have a real opportunity to punch one in on the ground.

The key development is Sean Tucker’s injury situation. If Tucker is unavailable, Irving’s touchdown outlook gets a significant boost. Kenneth Gainwell is the only other back who should see meaningful work, which could leave Irving with an even tighter grip on the early-down and goal-line workload.

At +140, Irving is a very reasonable anytime touchdown bet. At +1000 to score first, he is an appealing longer-shot play in a game where Tampa Bay should have opportunities to finish drives.

Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Anytime TD (+195), First TD (+950)

Chris Rodriguez is one of the more interesting Week 1 touchdown bets on the board.

He and Bhayshul Tuten are listed as co-starters on the Jaguars’ depth chart, but there is reason to believe Rodriguez could see more of the high-value work. Jacksonville is a heavy favorite against Cleveland, and that creates a potential ground-and-pound script where the Jaguars can lean on their backfield late.

Rodriguez played for Liam Coen in college, and there has been plenty of buzz that he could be the preferred option near the goal line. Tuten may out-snap him, but Rodriguez could still receive a larger share of the carries that matter most inside the 10-yard line. Jags beat writers have implied that could be a realistic scenario.

Both backs ranked well in yards after contact per attempt last season. At +195, Rodriguez is a strong anytime touchdown target. At +950 for first touchdown, he is worth a sprinkle if you believe Jacksonville opens the game with a run-heavy script.

Worth a Look: More Week 1 Touchdown Scorers

Mark Andrews (+170): Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar are gone, leaving Mark Andrews with a massive hold on Baltimore’s tight end role. He is still a major red-zone threat, even with Derrick Henry soaking up goal-line work.

Tyler Allgeier (+230): Tyler Allgeier was listed ahead of Jeremiyah Love on Arizona’s depth chart Tuesday. Love’s injury may create a bigger early-season role than expected, and Allgeier has a history of stealing valuable touchdown chances from Bijan Robinson.

Oronde Gadsden II (+550): This is a fun long shot. Oronde Gadsden is second on the depth chart, but Mike McDaniel knows how to use tight ends. He has helped create productive roles for Darren Waller and Jonnu Smith, and Gadsden is a serious mismatch.

Ward and Bell: Long-Shot Touchdown Bets

Cam Ward (+800, +2700): Brian Daboll should have a few designed quarterback-run concepts ready for Cam Ward. He does not need to be the fastest quarterback in the world to score near the pylon on an RPO keeper.

Chris Bell (+1200, +4500): Chris Bell is listed as one of Miami’s three starting receivers. I don’t love the Dolphins, but if they’re trailing, a 12/1 ticket is very live. And at 45-to-1 to score first, that is exactly the type of small-stakes lotto play worth considering.